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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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GFS provides the majority with a warm/very warm bank holiday with temps low to mid twenties likely.

Monday showing the peak of the warmth likely in the south with gfs showing uppers of 11-13c so a 27-28 could be on the cards in parts of the south. Low to mid twenties further north.

This is where there is some differences now being displayed amongst the main models. The GFS has downplayed the event of low pressure coming down on a NW to SE axis and is showing the jet stream possibly heading north again from mid week after a slightly cooler and breezier day Tuesday and Wednesday. Not much rain about however.

Latter part of the week could have a renewed surged of high pressure from the Azores as has also now been indicated by the UKMO this afternoon.

Also, the UKMO maintains the 8-10c uppers through Monday also which would keep temps mid twenties for the bank holiday. Perfect!

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UKMO again reluctant to build the very warm air in on the 12z - gfs and gem both have the very warm air (12c+ 850s). Looks like the low approaching in the middle of the week could cause headaches and put a spanner in the works.

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO again reluctant to build the very warm air in on the 12z - gfs and gem both have the very warm air (12c+ 850s). Looks like the low approaching in the middle of the week could cause headaches and put a spanner in the works.

Still 8-10c which is warmer than the 4-8c shown yesterday

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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO again reluctant to build the very warm air in on the 12z - gfs and gem both have the very warm air (12c+ 850s). Looks like the low approaching in the middle of the week could cause headaches and put a spanner in the works.

Remember this time of year you don't need overly high 850's to get temps into the 20s

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Well at T210, the low wins out on GFS but GEM still has the high influence, this is where the uncertainty is now, the bank holiday weekend is nailed for most areas, but there is the possibility is of a breakdown or not in the following week.  T210 charts

gem-0-210.png?12

gfs-0-210.png?12

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Just seen the GFS chart for 12th May. Due a visit to Blighty on that date, may have to put on hold again. The thought of enduring those Atlantic winds with a distinct chill factor scare the hell out of me. I am just now a warm continental softie . 29c in the valley this afternoon with thunder about.

 C

 

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The Gfs 12z shows a beauty of a BH weekend across most of the uk, especially england and wales with high pressure and temperatures up to 22c 72f..monday looks even warmer...mid 20's c for some!..let's not forget it's still spring for almost another month and yet we've seen plenty of summery weather already..with more to come between fri / tues!..enjoy:)

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ECM stuck at T0 (on Meteociel anyway) so here's the CMA - yes I'm posting this model twice in two days! - but it clearly supports the GEM as rebuilding the high later next week, here at T168 to T240:

cma-0-168.png?12

cma-0-192.png?12

cma-0-216.png?12

cma-0-240.png?12

Based on all model output, I think few day settled warm spells interspersed with less settled possibly thundery periods is the form horse for the rest of May.  ECM now seems stuck at T120.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Ecm is a cracker again out to 144. Warm and settled. Bring it on please! ITV weather ramping earlier, now showing 25c for Sunday. It’s nearly here!

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Fabulous ECM this evening warm to very warm, well into next week a bit fresher for a time later next week but high pressure dominates

ECMOPEU12_48_1.thumb.png.c2a6803f034c794d33785e3faa1223ba.pngECMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.1e11e355fceb65ab877da755863d7c0f.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.6b4f72af49c43889757d7b963441853a.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.659d8e39ed86393ad0f24254ddd78860.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.3a8d0e222fa2bb49a500821b9ee0c848.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.3dedf3b48da1192ffc4c62a5ac71ef0b.png

:good:

Edited by Summer Sun
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Awesome Ecm 12z for the BH weekend and the first half of next week across southern uk..it really is a peach of a holiday weekend coming up for most of the uk..what perfect timing with temperatures well into the low 20's celsius heading towards mid / upper 20's c further south / southeast!:)🌞

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And what a finish!..some absolutely fabulous weather on the way which would go on and on if the Ecm 12z is on the money!:)

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

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So I think after the 12s it boils down to what kind of wobble or breakdown occurs next week after the super bank holiday weekend.  Here's the scores on the doors:

ICON - considerable wobble, and run terminates before we see what happens next.

GEM - second high follows first with continuity.  Great run.

UKMO - run finishes too early but looks good for resurgence of high pressure.

GFS - low pressure invades by T216, weird thereafter but it's well FI by then.

ECM - second high follows first with continuity.  Good run.

CMA - second high follows first with continuity.  Good run.

On the basis of that super ensemble, I'm going 70% on mainly warm and sunny weather for at least the south of the country for the next 10 days.

Edit, at last ECM at T216, superb!

ECM1-216.GIF?02-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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 GFS 12z isn't looking good for second week of May.  Looking depressingly cold, wet and windy mid week after the dry blip.  

Edited by 38.5*C
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5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

 GFS 12z isn't looking good for second week of May.  Looking depressingly cold, wet and windy mid week after the dry blip.  

It's not just a dry blip, it's another spell of exceptional summery weather around 4 weeks early, even better if the Ecm 12z is anything close!:)

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We can really see the differences in how the models handle the same setup as the weekend progresses.

First off, ECM brings a greater amount of warm air across from the southwest during Fr-Sat than GFS. It will be educational to see whether this is a case of ECM overcooking or GFS underestimating.

Then, there's the advance of the Atlantic trough during Mon-Tue GFS next week, which sees GFS being persistently more progressive than ECM, UKMO and GEM. In fact, this looks to be the case for not just that trough but also another smaller low well out west in the N. Atlantic, the further east position of which 'flattens' the next ridge attempting to nose across from the southwest and allows the trough to our NW to gain the upper hand across the UK. Looking at the ECM and GEM runs, we can see that this second ridge is a fairly weak affair, so it is vulnerable to such flattening if the low out west moves as fast as GFS shows - but this evening, the majority vote has remained for a slower low that allows the ridge to nose across effectively and trap the warm air across the UK beyond Monday. It could still become unstable enough for a few showers or even thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon, but in very light winds temperatures would do very well away from any of that activity.

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38 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

 GFS 12z isn't looking good for second week of May.  Looking depressingly cold, wet and windy mid week after the dry blip.  

Give it a rest. Amazed how so many of your posts get through. They are nothing to the discussion.

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The ECM ensembles suggest to me a much higher probability of continuing the mainly fine warm weather, here mean and spread at T240:

EDM1-240.GIF?02-0

EEM1-240.GIF

Much bolder prediction for heights to our east and lower uncertainty to our NW (compared to my post from yesterday's 12z).  Not to mention the uncertainty low where the high pressure is.

All good, as we head to a great May spell of weather.

Edited by Mike Poole
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45 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

 GFS 12z isn't looking good for second week of May.  Looking depressingly cold, wet and windy mid week after the dry blip.  

Hardly a dry blip is it? Considering most parts of the UK wont see any rainfall in the next 7 days!!

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13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Give it a rest. Amazed how so many of your posts get through. They are nothing to the discussion.

In fairness 38.5 degrees' seem to give a pretty fair assessment of the GFS post the weekend. My interpretation was much the same - cold, wet and windy. Let's hope the ECM is right

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I think that the current model predictions of warm weather interspersed by less settled spells will continue through May as I have set out  in previous posts, but I am optimistic that come summer proper the southward forcing on the jet stream  will diminish, and we will see something like this develop by high summer:

cfs-0-1446.png?18

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think that the current model predictions of warm weather interspersed by less settled spells will continue through May as I have set out  in previous posts, but I am optimistic that come summer proper the southward forcing on the jet stream  will diminish, and we will see something like this develop by high summer:

cfs-0-1446.png?18

whoa! spectators will need sun cream next day, for day 1!

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's not just a dry blip, it's another spell of exceptional summery weather around 4 weeks early, even better if the Ecm 12z is anything close!:)

May can deliver very summery sustained conditions - nothing too unusual in this, I said a couple of days ago, in some years it has brought the warmest weather of the year here..its just recent years have seen only limited sustained warmth and settled weather.

Alas, models all showing high pressure influencing things as we move through the latter part of the week, a very good bank holiday away from the NW looks on the cards, with lots of dry sunny warm weather - could be some stubborn cloud at times though, and temps though very good for early May but not exceptional territory compared to the last warm spell when we imported long drawn southerlies.

Thereafter a bit of a stand off between ECM and GFS - a typical situation with ECM holding onto strong height development, as it often does and GFS keen to see the atlantic moving in. I'm inclined to go more with ECM given we have a very weak jetstream at the moment - again par for the course in May, and next week in the main will deliver more dry sunny warm weather, mid 20s in the south. 

However, one thing we have seen this year is for a propensity for any settled ridge development to be kicked aside quite easily by the atlantic - the last warm spell lasted about 5 days, and there will be forcing on the high once again next week, its weakest link could easily be broken again quite quickly - as suggested by GFS.

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