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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It still looks great though with high pressure becoming dominant and pleasantly warm in the strong early may sunshine..i.e..perfect BH weather for most of the uk!:)🌞

Yeah that maybe sounds a tad harsh - maybe I’ve got the last warm spell In mind! It will still be above average, settled and fairly warm. Can’t moan really.

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The Gem 12z turns into a very summery run across the southern half of the uk, really from friday onwards as high pressure builds in with temps into the upper teens c and then into the low 20's celsius during the BH weekend and through next week, closer to the mid 20's c at times for the s / se.

Day 10 is sublime further south..hope the Ecm is too!:) 

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850.png

240_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Just catching up with the output this evening, and a decent bank holiday weekend looks nailed, how warm is open to question still.  But looking longer, the GFS seems to be the villain but is it?  T234:

gfs-0-234.png?12

But by the end of the run high pressure back in control:

gfs-0-384.png?12

Worth looking at the jetstream on a NH perspective, for the same times:

gfsnh-5-234.png?12

gfsnh-5-384.png?12

Last one we seem to be between two udders, but I think the general jet stream profile suggests frequent transitions between settled and unsettled weather.  As we move towards summer, the question is will this translate to more predominantly settled conditions with the jet further north still?

Edited by Mike Poole

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Wow, just wow, that's what I think of the Ecm 12z!:shok::D🌞🌴

72_mslp500.png

96_mslp500.png

96_thickuk.png

120_mslp500.png

120_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

 

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM is absolutely brilliant with warmth steadily increasing 

ECMOPEU12_72_2.thumb.png.9c43200260a6e187d8fe736e2bcd438a.pngECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.2e5e2c12e18a052fb35bab04d8ce2bf2.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.0f8e5c309ee793a0570be3f641c80cce.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.d0d361d691e52ad1bdf23cabc1b921ff.png

:) 

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ECM maybe headed towards a thundery breakdown at T240, not complaining if it does, still think we'll see warm spells interspersed with unsettled spells as we go through May, that could involve some thunderstorms.

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

Edited by Mike Poole

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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM maybe headed towards a thundery breakdown at T240, not complaining if it does, still think we'll see warm spells interspersed with unsettled spells as we go through May, that could involve some thunderstorms.

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

Indeed, such a conclusion follows the dialogue of 6 -30 day Met Office forecast :) . The biggest question (within the 10 day range) is the local of the focus of increasing heights, with the; ECM, GFS, UKMO & GEM all showing variations on a theme. The ECM on a synoptic level is ideal for sustaining the anticyclonic spell while maintaining above average(perhaps notable) temperatures. 

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Very summery indeed, though I wouldn't want to be within 20 miles of the east coast, it will feel a bit chilly there (perhaps better the further north you are). But I would expect 23-27C in other parts, maximums perhaps Bournemouth, Barnstaple and Cheltenham.

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On the plus side, the JMA 12z shows the muck gone after sunday and much cooler 850s coming into the country shortly after. God bless them. :cray:

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ECM ensembles out, here's the mean and spread at T240:

EDM1-240.GIF

EEM1-240.GIF

The uncertainty looks to be associated with an impending low (or not) from the NW as per GFS earlier, perhaps the two extremes well illustrated by two lesser spotted models, the CMA (not good) and FIM9 (ok next weekend):

cma-0-240.png?12

fim-0-240.png?12

Interesting weather to look forward to in May, warmth and thunder may well be the buzz words!

Edited by Mike Poole

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You would have to admit that is one penetrating snake-like creature from the Azores on the pub run at T78:

gfs-0-78.png?18

Harbinger of that rare thing, fantastic weather for the early May bank holiday, what's not to like!

UK high at T126:

gfs-0-126.png?18

Edited by Mike Poole

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ECM leading the way yet again this morning, pulling the high east and dragging some very warm air up. Mid twenties once again. Ukmo is still reluctant to do so. Who will be right!

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The ECM relentlessly continues with the warmest and sunniest outlook. It’s maybe looking forward to summery weather too

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00z ECM is fantastic this morning for warmth the good news is it is now just a matter of a few days away from arriving whilst later in the run some cooler air does make it into Scotland & NI England and Wales holds on to the warm air

72_thickuk.thumb.png.ee4ae2c02f6842fc0f44478b903f09de.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.bc41dbab62ee4416d505efdc7e81d7ce.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.9917ef22a33aef2b4ceb72e241e3ac0f.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.5c08965965dacb9f68f70ea2329a5f7f.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.0c9afa879bbbeff13597b1e8e965e834.png

Enjoy

:) 

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The Gem 00z shows temps across england and wales widely into the low 20's celsius this weekend and even warmer through the first half of next week, as high as 27 / 28 / 29c 81-84f further s / se..stunning summery charts considering the start of the meteorological summer is still 4 weeks away!:)🌞

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GEM is a GEM of a run for warmth with just a minor blip later next week 

GEMOPEU00_60_2.thumb.png.3556fe81caf8ac9495f9ea430bb66bfe.pngGEMOPEU00_108_2.thumb.png.42db673406421dfee8354e4074bce153.pngGEMOPEU00_156_2.thumb.png.2aee8e83e68724b1126e4ca7f43286c3.png

GEMOPEU00_204_2.thumb.png.be292c42491e6996760c8728d4b21251.pngGEMOPEU00_228_2.thumb.png.707f951d10bf7d0f89beba9636e38474.pngGEMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.5beb4928f4e06c7056c5ba39e60c0875.png

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The runs are not too bad at all. May shaping up very nicely. With such a weak jet stream, hopefully we can continue to see the Azores and Euro Highs dominating with only brief Atlantic incursions into the North West.

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EC clusters show the low heights trying to get to the UK. But with the tendency for heights to hold some sway to our east, I'd say it gives a chance of the first real plume of the year May 11th-13th, as southerlies could get trapped between the Atlantic advancing and heights holding up over the continent.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018050200_240.

Wouldn't be exceptionally hot though as Iberia hasn't properly warmed up yet.

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Absolutely gutted with the GFS it's still showing rain/showers in west Wales from as early as Tuesday when my mate is over from Spain, looks like low pressure will just about be in charge again with the high only slightly too far away :nonono:

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Revenge of the Arctic on the Gfs 6z in low res with a risk of snow, especially for the north!:shok::cold-emoji:

06_324_preciptype.png

06_384_preciptype.png

06_384_mslp850.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

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Looking at UKMO 12z I can't see a quick breakdown next week 

UKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.d1bfee1c668208db4e31048c2fe981d1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.12f0d0d5a15d85c87cb58d89429ddc1e.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.0724fb084fe15f76605b203903a16875.png

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GEM looks very warm and settled at T120 for holiday Monday, with power to add.

gem-0-120.png?12

gem-1-120.png?12

GFS allows the high to drift further east:

gfs-0-120.png?12

Whether we get a reload or not may depend on that low to the NW, looks quite strong on this run at T180:

gfs-0-174.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole

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