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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

2 clusters today for D10. One looks hot. The other is hotter! 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071500_240.

Any unsettled weather restricted to far NW, if at all. 

Beyond that, looking heavily blocked to NE right through to D15. 

Jesus christ at this rate this summer will go down as the best summer ever if it aint already!!

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So far, I'd rank it 4th, after 1975, '76 and '95 (which all lasted through August, as well as just June and July). But, as I can't remember either 1947 or '59, I'll leave those years for others to compare...

Come on models: make summer great again!🧢

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

The Azores High looks to have one last rally around Friday, with a ridge extending across the UK, but this then evolves into more of an independent anticyclone as the Azores High becomes suppressed as part of the switch toward a Nino atmospheric state.

It’s then that we look to how well ridging can hold on across our lands in the face of Atlantic lows attempting to approach from the W or SW. We can fare pretty well from this setup in the second half of July and well into August - something many recent long range models have been strongly hinting at.

This doesn’t necessarily translate to long spells of sunny weather like we’ve seen in May-June, though; those troughs are likely to get close enough from time to time to introduce some instability i.e downpour/thunderstorm potential. Maybe even a more organised spell of rain on one or two occasions.

On the other hand, the air movements will be more supportive of hot air imports from the near continent. So I’m seeing high potential for shorter (which could still be up to 5 or so days at a time) but more intense heatwaves compared to summer so far. Also more rainfall in between, which will please some.

Simiular to August 1997? That was wet and warm and IIRC came near the start of an El Nino event.

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The nwp currently headed towards where many expected us to go last third July which is renewed sceuro upper ridge and Atlantic trough. Will this become as sustained as it was late April to mid June. 

and where will the uk sit within that trough/ridge set up - presumably it will drift east and west at times as it did throughout that six weeks or so. (Not the uk )

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The Gfs 6z operational shows plenty of warmth / heat, especially across southern uk, it also indicates plenty of fine weather and most of the precipitation is in the form of showers, most of which would be heavy and thundery but very hit and miss...so, this predominantly wonderful summer looks like continuing with lots more to look forward to as we reach the mid point.☺

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A further note on the ECM ensembles - there's been a sudden increase in the number of runs totally dry for London until 26th July...

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The extended GEFS 6z mean is increasingly warm / hot..especially across southern uk with plenty of fine sunny weather with heights from the azores to scandinavia, potential for hotter more humid thundery conditions from the near continent..I dearly hope the second half of this summer is something like the first half..already a memorable summer for the right reasons!!..plenty more to come..it's only half time..summers coming home!:D😀😃🌞🌩️🌡️

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Edited by Frosty.

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5 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

I can`t see nothing fantistic in the models at all stuck in a rut but this week a sort of relief,need much more rainfall than what we`re getting though or else we`re in trouble,never thought I`d say that.

 

There is no water shortage. There is more than enough in reserve. Stop fretting.

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OK I'm expecting the 12 suite to be confirmatory of an ongoing long hot summer, after the current mini-wobble.  If it's a wobble at all, in my location today has been the perfect summers day even if the pressure has dropped to 1015 mbar or less.  

First out ICON and UKMO, at T 180 and T144 respectively:

image.thumb.jpg.8d9b2497cd6864a558ec08bccbae7347.jpg

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Any hope of rain is getting quickly smothered out on the latest ukmo and gfs 12zs!!this is just an extraoridnary spell of weather!!infact the ukmo looks hot and sunny all week lol!!

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GFS really good tonight, here to T192:

Edit: animated GIF not loading 😡 couple of charts to show instead:

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Even during the earlier stages the lower pressure doesn't seem to much detract from the warm settled weather, in the south most definitely, and then the UK high at T192.

😎🔥🍔🍺

Keep rolling summer '18!

Edited by Mike Poole

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43 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any hope of rain is getting quickly smothered out on the latest ukmo and gfs 12zs!!this is just an extraoridnary spell of weather!!infact the ukmo looks hot and sunny all week lol!!

You're right, the so called unsettled week ahead isn't unsettled at all, plenty of ridging shown here on the ukmo 12z bringing predominantly settled and sunny conditions, tomorrow looks a scorcher again for the s / se..risk of isolated thundery showers being sparked by the high temps and humidity..tues fresher with sunshine and a few heavy showers, again a risk of thunder but isolated then largely fine and becoming very warm again..london for example probably 29 / 30c tomorrow then 25c on tues but then back up to 26 / 27 / 28c etc from midweek through to next weekend!!.☺

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

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UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Seems that as the models have come to terms with the Nino background overriding the trade wind burst, they’ve adjusted the Wed-Fri low west and made it weaker, and increased the ridging from the Azores for the weekend.

The combined effect on the GFS 12z for example is to take the more organised rain associated with the Wed-Fri low west of all but N Ireland and then to take until 30th July to produce more than localised useful amounts of rainfall... and even that is dubious as it’s from thunderstorm in a slack environment so would be more hit-and-miss in reality. 

Even though such significant adjustments were-signposted by teleconnection theory, it’s quite something to see such a scarcity of useful rainfall becoming favoured even for what should be the least ridge-friendly week of the month (this coming one, I mean) - though there’s still time for that Wed-Fri low to adjust back to a track across the UK; not a done deal yet.

Edited by Singularity
Autocorrect really is daft

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UW144-21.GIF?15-19

I'm lost for words at tonight's UKMO. Just where has this breakdown GONE? UKMO has completely cancelled it tonight. I'm starting to believe in a July with absolutely no rainfall in my location - after about 1mm last month. Is this really the UK? 

Its utterly vanished under are eyes and at this range. Its absolutly unbelievable. People around here are all paying attention to media and expecting a 'big change' next week. In reality next week the dryness overrides the unsettled period!

Ive never known a turnaround like it. I mean it was hardly gonna be a washout, but next week has definetly left a lot of people with egg on their faces.

 

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The GEFS 12z mean turns into a beauty again, especially across the southern half of the uk in the mid / longer term with more hot weather through to at least the end of July..the week ahead looks very decent too..compared to how it was looking recently!🌞

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Edited by Frosty.

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It does look like a N/SE split again Karl with the ECM rolling out. What is the calculation between 850 temps and 2M temps btw?

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On 08/07/2018 at 09:20, bluearmy said:

 

I just checked my calendar and it’s the 8th ............ the extended modelling on the eps is becoming consistently upper troughy headed into the last third of the month. Worst the further nw as per usual. 

Just to reiterate my post. Not trying to point score whatsoever, but as I alluded to here, taking each model run as gospel is fruitless. @Tamara's  detailed analysis throughout has backed a more settled outlook and without sticking her nose out, was confident there wouldn't be a breakdown as was modelled last week. It's often said in here that you should probably only look at the ops a couple of times a week and I'm firmly from that camp. This is a truly vintage summer and long may it continue.... It could easily be a record breaker for max temps, especially if the scandi/Azores link up sufficiently with a low to our SW.... Heat pump city, and there's a LOT of hear building down there 😍

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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

It does look like a N/SE split again Karl with the ECM rolling out. What is the calculation between 850 temps and 2M temps btw?

if the 850's are around +10 expect something like mid 20's c depending on sunshine but if they are nearer +15 uppers, something like high 20's to low 30's c can be expected, again, depending on the sun being out for a reasonable length of time.☺

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

if the 850's are around +10 expect something like mid 20's c depending on sunshine but if they are nearer +15 uppers, something like high 20's to low 30's c can be expected, again, depending on the sun being out for a reasonable length of time.☺

I`ll take that as the Frosty calculator 🙂 Not exactly what I was after but I`ll go with it.

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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

I`ll take that as the Frosty calculator 🙂 Not exactly what I was after but I`ll go with it.

It really all depends on sunshine, you can have +15 850's but if it's a cloudy day you may only see 20c at the surface but in the right conditions you could be looking at 30c +

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The crumb of comfort for this week at least is that maxima and minima are pretty reasonable and that it should feel quite fresh.

Looking ahead though the GFS has a ridge again by 8 over the UK albeit the rest of this month looks quite messy with a lot of col/weak ridge type weather. 

I get the impression that the weather wants to break down now but that the Atlantic simply lacks the energy to make it happen. 

From a weather fan prespective at least (even if i dislike humidity and heat) it's pretty incredible.

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

GFSOPEU12_240_33.png

 

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Just now, Frosty. said:

It really all depends on sunshine, you can have +15 850's but if it's a cloudy day you may only see 20c at the surface but in the right conditions you could be looking at 30c +

Perfect mate and makes total sense, cheers 🙂

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Just now, Frosty. said:

It really all depends on sunshine, you can have +15 850's but if it's a cloudy day you may only see 20c at the surface but in the right conditions you could be looking at 30c +

Lapse rates now should be around 13-14C however the lack of soil moisture and clear skies has amplified that a bit. 

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