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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Had a feeling summer would parallel the run of the England football team and this mornings output 100% agrees. I know this will get bemoaned and fortunately there is still time to change but some of the patterns modelled are the sort that can also hang around with deep troughing entrenched over the U.K. A summer of two halves?

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    We still believe, we still believe… We still believe, we still believe… It's coming home, it's coming home It's coming, summers coming home It's coming home, it's coming home

    I try no to let preferences influence my thinking in terms of the weather patterns, and attempt to suggest pros and cons for whatever realistic possibilities are ahead. Its not always easy! But s

    Errrr.... who correctly forecast this settled spell weeks ago? It was @Tamara

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I see plenty more warm / very warm weather on the 00z runs, some sunshine and heavy showers / thunderstorms..what's not to like?:D??️:shok:..at least those moor fires are on borrowed time!!..I'll get me coat now?

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The troughing is well into FI. And here we are with people writing off summer.

    I think a temporary blip is still the favoured outcome with the Azores high ridding back in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Looks good to me, peeps: warmer than average with sunny spells and some stonking great showers/thunderstorms - sure beats endless days' staring at a clear blue sky, and sweating like flock!:yahoo:

    Totally agree ed..I mean pete, the models show some potentially exciting weather for storm enthusiasts..even today!!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I'm certainly not writing off summer - plenty of other experts have said that the global pressure patterns just aren't what you'd associate with weeks of unsettled weather and troughing over the UK. Met update is reasonable too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    The GFS is certainly showing a more unsettled Atlantic driven pattern especially into the run. As Pete says still looking warmer than average with scope for thunderstorms and heavy showers over the UK, After what has been a very hot dry Summer so far this year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Let’s get that low stuck to the sw, you no what that means, heat and plenty of storms to get excited about. After last night I definitely need cheering up so let’s get some good old humdingers going

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    For all those apparently panicking about things becoming 'cooler' (summer's end is nigh!) all may not be as it seems: Where is the cold air going to come from?:shok:

    Netweather GFS Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    Let’s get that low stuck to the sw, you no what that means, heat and plenty of storms to get excited about. After last night I definitely need cheering up so let’s get some good old humdingers going

    This was what the ECM was showing last night. Haven't checked the ensembles this morning, but I bet it's still an option.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlow IRE
  • Location: Carlow IRE

    Then the 06z goes and flips back! From IMBY point of view Ireland is looking rather dry still and while the UK might see heat and thunderstorms Ireland looks to miss out on both.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    And GFS 6z looks nothing like the 00z for the same time the following weekend. Rather than a trough over the country, we have a ridge!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Squeaky bum time on the EC clusters. Day 11 sees the less settled cluster jump from just 8 yesterday to 24 today

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071200_264.

    Clusters 2 and 3 are still fairly summery, though, and together they just about hold the majority.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    noaa anomaly charts had shown troughing dominant next week for some time now, not sure why when the ops have caught up - its a surprise..

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm pleased with the Gfs 6z operational, there's plenty of warm / very warm weather on it, plenty of thunderstorm potential and plenty of dry and sunny weather too..something for everyone!?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    06z GFS is a much better fit to the Nino-like background, though still a little low on ridge strength UK-Scandinavia.

    As I said yesterday, still much chopping and changing possible as the Pacific trade wind burst causes confusion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, it gradually becomes rather unsettled next week onwards but it's a very slack looking pattern with spells of sunshine but also heavy slow moving showers which may merge at times with a risk of thunderstorms. Temperature wise, a very warm / hot weekend and early next week for the s / e in particular where it also looks mainly dry with plenty of sunshine and just a few showers, cooler, windier and more unsettled across the far NW. Through next week and indeed further ahead it stays generally warm / very warm across southern uk, especially the southeast where the best of the fine weather and sunny conditions would be, humid at times further south but temps generally nearer to average in the far northwest.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This weekend into the start of next week looks largely dry, hot and sunny further s / e with temperatures into the high 20's / low 30's celsius. Looking at the ukmo 12z, next week indicates a perfect recipe for warm sunny spells and heavy slow moving showers / thunderstorms, generally light winds but potentially gusty around potent showers / storms.?

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

    UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

    UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    In the reliable the GFS 12z isn’t too bad a run. Still very warm but with chance of heavy showers. OK the FI is vile but who cares! We would be mightily unlucky if it panned out like that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Jeez it's quiet in here considering there's some potentially exciting weather in the pipeline in terms of heavy thundery showers from the 12z output..and apart from the cooler unsettled far NW there's a sunny increasingly hot weekend coming up, sunday could reach 31/32c 89f across the SE according to the Gfs 12z operational, monday looks very warm / hot too further SE. Next week indicates plenty of warm weather, especially across southern uk and we should all see some warm sunshine but heavy showers / thunderstorms breaking out widely too... Later next week shows a nice ridge building in bringing a window of more settled weather BUTif this run is right about week 2,_farmers and growers will be happy bunnies ?:D?️

    12_75_uk2mtmp.png

    12_75_precipratec.png

    12_75_mslp850.png

    12_99_uk2mtmp.png

    12_99_mslp850.png

    12_99_ukthickness850.png

    12_123_uk2mtmp.png

    12_123_preciptype.png

    12_123_ukcape.png

    12_147_precipratec.png

    12_171_uk2mtmp.png

    12_228_mslp500.png

    12_240_mslp500.png

    12_240_uk2mtmp.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Less of a lingering LP by eastern parts for the middle part of the week on the 12z GFS.

    Meanwhile that trough diving down well west of Europe is in about the same position but slightly better defined compared to the 06z on the left:

    hgt300.png hgt300.png

    This setup leaves 'space' for a ridge to build across the UK Thu-Sat. It's a bit of a feeble attempt on this particular run, so still a few showers knocking about at times, but overall this is a drier run than the 06z and much drier than the 00z - while still delivering useful amounts of rain for many of us.

    Longer-term, well, GFS still seems to be giving the trade wind burst an incredibly strong and long-lived influence over our weather, as the 12z it makes for yet another run depicting a classic Nina-like summer pattern signal at a time when we're looking for entirely the opposite flavour! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS12z deepens a trough south of Greenland at day 8 which gets enough of a weakness from a trough over Europe to form an upper low over the UK. From that point, the summer weather heads down like the Titanic. 

    GFSOPEU12_192_33.png

    GFSOPEU12_288_33.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Jeez it's quiet in here considering there's some potentially exciting weather in the pipeline in terms of heavy thundery showers from the 12z output..and apart from the cooler unsettled far NW there's a sunny increasingly hot weekend coming up, sunday could reach 31/32c 89f across the SE according to the Gfs 12z operational, monday looks very warm / hot too further SE. Next week indicates plenty of warm weather, especially across southern uk and we should all see some warm sunshine but heavy showers / thunderstorms breaking out widely too... Later next week shows a nice ridge building in bringing a window of more settled weather BUTif this run is right about week 2,_farmers and growers will be happy bunnies ?:D?️

    12_75_uk2mtmp.png

    12_75_precipratec.png

    12_75_mslp850.png

    12_99_uk2mtmp.png

    12_99_mslp850.png

    12_99_ukthickness850.png

    12_123_uk2mtmp.png

    12_123_preciptype.png

     12_123_ukcape.png

    12_147_precipratec.png

    12_171_uk2mtmp.png

    12_228_mslp500.png

    12_240_mslp500.png

    12_240_uk2mtmp.png

    Nothing to moan about on those charts,a welcome change to a more mobile influence at last yet still warm enough to be comfortable. Proper UK summer weather?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Nothing to moan about on those charts,a welcome change to a more mobile influence at last yet still warm enough to be comfortable. Proper UK summer weather?

    Fully agree, I'm looking forward to the change that the 12z models are showing, spice things up a bit, plenty to interest storm enthusiasts and still warm enough for most areas..and some will disagree with me but I think we do need some serious rain, some areas have hardly seen any for over a month now!!!..hopefully we will get some!?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well no complaints from me after a truly historic spell of summer weather but ECM tonight is going into full on breakdown mode with a southerly tracking jet, Greenland high and UK trough.

    Not saying its correct but certainly momentum building for something much less settled or warm as we move through next week.

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