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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Latest Hirlam shows a risk of moderate / heavy snow for parts of the south early monday!:shok::crazy::cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄

00_31_ukpreciptype.png

00_31_uktemp.png

Yes, not letting go is it?  Difference between HIRLAM and ARPEGE still massive here at T34:

hirlamuk-1-34-0.png?29-06

arpegeuk-1-34-0.png?29-06

Cumulative snow chart from HIRLAM 

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?29-06

I'm more certain about the bank holiday Monday weather than I am about tomorrow in Central Southern England!

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Temps in most parts back above average later next week no heatwave or anything but upper teens to low 20's certainly possible 

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.b6ecbe0c151566a97c2a4c50963fc271.png

The weekly trend is gradually improving with some places now marginally above average and more areas averaging out at average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.4d93b79e234b638c7f0457b6c26970ca.png

:) 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Nice ECM mean this morning with high pressure starting to build from later in the week prefect timing given it's a holiday weekend

EDU1-144.thumb.gif.0102f1a5c1e4922ef01dab1cce786374.gifEDU1-168.thumb.gif.9635f75319e1dc5318d2808a765f6545.gifEDU1-192.thumb.gif.619876f16fa90e39744b2d4f04968fc4.gifEDU1-216.thumb.gif.4840214d3aa38044056be3d871236f8f.gif

EDU1-240.gif

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Can't believe that I'm still talking about snow on the cusp of May but the 6z Hirlam does show a risk of snow for parts of the SE tomorrow morning where the precipitation looks heaviest! ❄❄❄:cold-emoji::D

06_26_ukpreciptype.png

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The main talking point tomorrow is how very wet and cold it looks across especially the SE quarter of england where over an inch of rain and perhaps pushing 2 inches across the southeast corner and east anglia by the time the rain clears east into the north sea during tuesday with localised flooding ...and, the ICON 6z also shows a risk of wet snow across parts of the SE for a time tomorrow mixed in with the most torrential rain.

06_24_ukpreciptype.png

06_30_ukpreciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Temps in most parts back above average later next week no heatwave or anything but upper teens to low 20's certainly possible 

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.b6ecbe0c151566a97c2a4c50963fc271.png

The weekly trend is gradually improving with some places now marginally above average and more areas averaging out at average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.4d93b79e234b638c7f0457b6c26970ca.png

:) 

Little change on the 06z 

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.3f2e2aa8b154a11b4428d128d7b0413d.pngANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.7433932e40d86960014fa766c3896d52.png

:) 

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The BH weekend is shaping up nicely according to the GEFS 6z mean, especially across the southern half of the uk as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the azores with fine and increasingly warm conditions bringing long sunny spells and light winds, the fine weather continues further south well into the following week.:)🌞

21_156_500mb.png

21_180_500mb.png

21_180_2mtmpmax.png

21_204_500mb.png

21_204_2mtmpmax.png

21_228_500mb.png

21_228_2mtmpmax.png

21_252_500mb.png

21_252_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.

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So this morning the ECM followed the ARPEGE (thanks for correcting my error!!) this morning in shifting the rain band east. Still possibly a little snow over the downs. However more importantly the major rain risk is increasingly being limited to the far eastern counties. Central areas could even stay dry tomorrow.

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Tomorrow is looking miles better for areas further west than it was looking just a couple of days ago. Seems like we will now get a mostly dry day in these parts and the BBC are going for 11C- just shows the difference even a little bit of sunshine can make at this time of year. Not warm by any means but not exceptionally cool either.

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It looks like the furthest the rain will move westwards is a line roughly from Spurn Point to the Isle of Wight. To the east of that its a dreadful day of heavy, persistent rain. Im right on the dividing line so it could still go either way.

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On 4/21/2018 at 10:11, draztik said:

Indeed. A return to form, for the foreseeable. Deck chairs and shorts, packed away! The EPS shows the temp anomaly turning negative as we progress; In addition, and interestingly, the EPS 46 dayer projecting a cooler than average May, UK-wide!

 

 

Unknown.gif

Might be able to unpack them again later next week

:) :good:

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Might be able to unpack them again later next week

:) :good:

Gee I do hope so. I do so hope you actually find the time to go spend some time outdoors too. Instead of being on here so much. Vitamin D n all. 😃

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44 minutes ago, draztik said:

Gee I do hope so. I do so hope you actually find the time to go spend some time outdoors too. Instead of being on here so much. Vitamin D n all. 😃

The question for many is do deckchairs float? I mean the good news is that people don't need to pay to swim as they can float around in the surrounding fields around here for free.

The good news ia that thebweather looks likely to become more settled, especially in the south and it does look quite warm though unless there is the high really strengthens its grip on we get a proper southerly feed then it is unlikely we will hit the dizzy heights of just over a week ago. 

At this moment some warm sunshine is absolutely needed. More rain or a cool/dull high is something the agriculture industry in this country needs. Luckily the ensembles do show the Azores high building NE by the of the week so maybe next weekend will be a more fitting style of weather for late Spring.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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12z UKMO looking good for the start of the holiday weekend, especially for England and Wales

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.a059862a52473f9c7fa4b5f806a8c89b.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.b20642a08c442b9c6a1a65445abc1eae.png

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Following on from the above UKMO charts here are the 850's showing the increasingly warm air moving up the country

UW120-7.thumb.gif.f58244d4addc44c43dcf1aab51dd2933.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.7cfc28fcaa1fc40cfd071025f44b890a.gif

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I think a lot of people will be glad that the very wet weather on the latest models is confined to the SE (apart from those in the SE of course).  These pretty much the most west precipitation from the 12s:

arpegeuk-1-20-0.png?29-18

hirlamuk-1-22-0.png?29-17

Big backtrack from the HIRLAM, to be fair that was shown of the 6z as well.

24-574UK.GIF?29-12

Next Monday, well it was never in doubt:

gem-0-192.png?12

gfs-0-192.png?12

Actually GEM looking good longer term too:

gem-0-240.png?12

Surely time to say goodbye to cold and wet.

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Might be able to unpack them again later next week

:) :good:

And pack them away shortly thereafter...

image.thumb.png.30dff915d9213cc71b890fd01f4ea71c.png

image.thumb.png.c6c3497077b44057928bbfa16a7eec11.png

Oh the grand old duke of York.......

:rofl:

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What an escape for the soggy lands of CS England for example - I was dreading the impacts of another 30+ mm in a month that's already more than that amount above the long-term average.

Good to see the fine first weekend of May sticking fast in the model output. Much uncertainty as to how well the ridging holds on through the following week though.

 

Longer-term, GFS keeps producing Azores-Scandinavia linkups of high pressure, with the 12z the most dramatic example so far;

npsh500.png

I wonder if that would be the longest example of such a subtropical high extension ever recorded? :pardon:

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I know it's right at the end of the run, but GFS at T384 is looking great for an early start to summer.

gfs-0-384.png?12

gfs-5-384.png?12

The jet stream moving north a consistent signal on the model output (like it used to do for summer!), on this run, earlier, though, this big fish-like creature did have a good look at the UK!!

gfs-5-252.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

What an escape for the soggy lands of CS England for example - I was dreading the impacts of another 30+ mm in a month that's already more than that amount above the long-term average.

Good to see the fine first weekend of May sticking fast in the model output. Much uncertainty as to how well the ridging holds on through the following week though.

 

Longer-term, GFS keeps producing Azores-Scandinavia linkups of high pressure, with the 12z the most dramatic example so far;

npsh500.png

I wonder if that would be the longest example of such a subtropical high extension ever recorded? :pardon:

It's still not 100% certain that central England will avoid tomorrows deluge it's a nowcasting situation Tonight and tomorrow to see how far west The intense rain gets.

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1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Third GFS run on the bounce to turn it into a 2 day affair.

Not to worry the mighty GEM keeps the high with us much longer

GEMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.52b92462c194aa95cef13a89b8b6cca9.pngGEMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.9918463609f3f124f2f3bceea88762d9.pngGEMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.0e82b4970d17d008e7e03e3b91182de4.pngGEMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.42bc3ac71d8c7405a04bb91c52f7d6e2.pngGEMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.56dadeeffa1db58117db4023e8bfc362.png

 :good:

Edited by Summer Sun
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1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Third GFS run on the bounce to turn it into a 2 day affair.

It certainly hasn't shown that in previous runs- the GFS really can't make its mind up at the moment. The Euros have been far more consistent.

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So the ECM run draws to a close, here at T192 and T240:

ECM1-192.GIF?29-0

ECM1-240.GIF?29-0

I think this is still consistent with a northern push of the jet stream and that we are set up for a decent early summer pattern.  Let the warmth commence!

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 let the warmth commence!

Indeed, the Ecm 12z shows the warmth commencing on friday and continuing on sat / sun / mon & tues further south..a lovely BH weekend for most of us with high pressure, sunshine and temps into the 20's celsius across southern uk.:)🌞

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