Model output discussion 14/04/18

[damianslaw]

Excellent post by Tamara, suggesting the core of heights may take on a more southerly position and anchor to our east rather than sit in situ over the UK and to our north aided by extension of azores high - this seems a very plausible pattern, high pressure anchored where it currently is and to our north is more likely in the first half of summer than the second half when the jet tends to stir more restlessly. The Euro High scenario where the north west of the UK is more at the mercy of the atlantic and we revert back to the typical NW-SE split.

The above scenario is classic plume thundery breakdown territory.

One thing we always have to look out for once we enter the second half of the summer is hurricane/tropical storm activity, last year we had a very active hurricane season, and such features can disrupt the pattern markedly.

Any thoughts on hurricane activity this year?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any thoughts on hurricane activity this year?

Can't remember where I read it but it's expected to be a sluggish hurricane season this year I think.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

Because people think theres a really desperate drought problem when there isn't. But talking of plumes if we do get that plume and end up falling into a rubbish 2nd half to summer that some are desperately seeking then I'm afraid the rest of summer will have to be written off. You'll need ALL THREE summer months to see a decent High pressure for it to be a classic and we all know what August normally brings.

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters are back and best to wait for a few suites to get some continuity into context 

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Because people think theres a really desperate drought problem when there isn't. But talking of plumes if we do get that plume and end up falling into a rubbish 2nd half to summer that some are desperately seeking then I'm afraid the rest of summer will have to be written off. You'll need ALL THREE summer months to see a decent High pressure for it to be a classic and we all know what August normally brings.

Why? 

December 2010 is legendary and we all know Jan and Feb 2011 were pants! 

Regardless what happens later July and August, nothing can be taken away from this spell. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters are back and best to wait for a few suites to get some continuity into context 

After the glorious May and June the 1st half of July also looks warm and generally settled.

As a winter and summer lover i think its fair to say 2018 has broken the shackles of previous tedious years in spectacular fashion.

The EC mean keeps most of the UK under the influence of the most persistant anticyclone i can ever recall - 

[cheese]

23 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Because people think theres a really desperate drought problem when there isn't. But talking of plumes if we do get that plume and end up falling into a rubbish 2nd half to summer that some are desperately seeking then I'm afraid the rest of summer will have to be written off. You'll need ALL THREE summer months to see a decent High pressure for it to be a classic and we all know what August normally brings.

August was usually a good month - it's only the past decade or so that it's failed to deliver. We've now had a really good July (2013) and a really good June (2018), so now we just need a really good August.

[Nick L]

Model discussion please folks!

[NUT]

Jesus this run for southeast england on GFS next thursday has 34/35 in places (and that could be underestimating it too)

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Plenty of examples in history of plumes followed by settled weather. 2006 - mid July, 36C from a massive plume - there were shortly after 10 consecutive days at 30+ in the SE. 

In fact the south coast is under the tail end of a plume right now. 

But what will be will be!! 

I would not consider 2006 to be a plume in the typical sense in that it was the culmination of a week or so long hot, settled spell (possibly longer actually).

2015 was more of a classic plume. 

 

[TJS1998Tom]

Impressive GFS run with the 18z. Charts showing temperatures with 35C. If you add one or two on top of that, wouldn't surprise me if it reached 36/37. Still a long way off yet though

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

For me personally, id rather see this awesome spell go out with an epic bang, as per the 18z run, which is simply staggering, and the all time record high would be put in great danger, followed by explosive storms. If we opt for a sustained high with no plume, then you run the risk of it retrograding out into the Atlantic with a dry, thunderless breakdown of sea mist and drizzle from the North. I’d much rather the former! 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Excellent post by Tamara, suggesting the core of heights may take on a more southerly position and anchor to our east rather than sit in situ over the UK and to our north aided by extension of azores high - this seems a very plausible pattern, high pressure anchored where it currently is and to our north is more likely in the first half of summer than the second half when the jet tends to stir more restlessly. The Euro High scenario where the north west of the UK is more at the mercy of the atlantic and we revert back to the typical NW-SE split.

The above scenario is classic plume thundery breakdown territory.

One thing we always have to look out for once we enter the second half of the summer is hurricane/tropical storm activity, last year we had a very active hurricane season, and such features can disrupt the pattern markedly.

Any thoughts on hurricane activity this year?

The 2017 hurricane season was effect rather than cause in that it was the result of the developing La Nina/-QBO combination. This was also a contributor to our summer as well in that once we entered July the tropics saw significant trade surges (not typically a good sign). 

[summer blizzard]

Regarding the model output the GFS18z ends our spell with both a potential bang and a humid fest. Low pressure, high uppers and dam heights and southerlies for days 9 and 10. 

[Guest]

GFS 00Z reduces the influence and delays the upper trough moving in from Biscay to the point where its so far away at day 9/10day its almost not worth talking about currently. Until then our new BFF high pressure builds in and drops anchor plum over the UK during the weekend and through the majority of next week delivering high 20's for most with favoured places hitting 30/31C. 

[mb018538]

Looking amazing again today. Very warm to hot through the weekend and into next week,

Some places are still looking at day 10+ for any rain....the GFS ppn charts do show some big spikes in the south at the end of this week, but these are all thunderstorm based, and may not happen at all. Most places will just stay dry.

[mb018538]

Not sure I like the progression from the ECM 192-216 hour chart:

 

Seems to drain the strong heights away very quickly! GFS (below) keeps the high in situ between 192-216, so let's hope that is the actual outcome.

[Frosty.]

Next week looks even hotter than this week on the Ecm 00z plus we have a big high moving in later this week strengthening this incredible spell...so, lots of scorching sunshine to look forward to and signs of increasing thunderstorm activity towards the end of the run..wonderful that the height of summer is bringing us weather like this taking full advantage of the longest days.

Edited July 3, 2018 by Frosty.

[Leo97t]

GEM looking unbelievable. Huge and fairly stable southerly flow being pulled up

[philglossop]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure I like the progression from the ECM 192-216 hour chart:

 

Seems to drain the strong heights away very quickly! GFS (below) keeps the high in situ between 192-216, so let's hope that is the actual outcome.

If that comes off, I can see the cut off low slowly filling and the high pressure in mid Atlantic building in for round 3. That’s been the form horse this Summer, and the jet is that far North to allow it. That would then verify with the Met Office extended outlook

Edited July 3, 2018 by philglossop

[terrier]

Well the gfs turns on the blow torch conditions next week. But then thankfully around the weekend of the 14th/15th of July we could see some much needed rainfall. We really could do with some rain now. Especially for the farmers etc. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just seen Gav P on youtube with Julys month ahead outlook and according to the models its HP all the way right out until months end. Even August is hinting of LP moving away to the west with heights building from the East.

[thestixx]

28 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Just seen Gav P on youtube with Julys month ahead outlook and according to the models its HP all the way right out until months end. Even August is hinting of LP moving away to the west with heights building from the East.

Paul Hudson @paultheweatherman on Yorkshire weather said "It's high pressure till mid month, and probably all the way through July"

 

 

[mb018538]

Not sure what those guys have been smoking - that's certainly not the case at all...

Our trusty ECM clusters are back!

Strong ridge at 144 hours, with a few quibbles about it's position:



Still strong at day 8:



Signs of slight weakening at day 10 emerging, though still ridge dominated:



By day 13 we are seeing everything flattened out:



By day 15, 100% of ensemble members going unsettled:



So....we're looking good until the middle of the month, then things could start to go downhill afterwards. Certainly not set in stone yet, but the ECM ensembles have shown high pressure losing influence around mid month for a couple of days now.

[Djdazzle]

ECM ensembles can flip in no time. I wouldn’t trust them at that range and it seems at odd with what some of the pros are suggesting I.e. possible HP dominance until end of the month.