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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Extended ECM - outstanding:

    ECM1-192.GIF?30-12ECM1-216.GIF?30-12ECM1-240.GIF?30-12

    Massive anticyclone parke over the UK again, which is going to take some shifting.

    About as good a summer NH profile as you could wish to see for the UK, low heights over Greenland, Iceland & the polar regions:

    ECH1-240.GIF?30-12

    Edited by mb018538
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    We still believe, we still believe… We still believe, we still believe… It's coming home, it's coming home It's coming, summers coming home It's coming home, it's coming home

    I try no to let preferences influence my thinking in terms of the weather patterns, and attempt to suggest pros and cons for whatever realistic possibilities are ahead. Its not always easy! But s

    Errrr.... who correctly forecast this settled spell weeks ago? It was @Tamara

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Loving the Ecm 00z..???:air_kiss:??️?⛱️

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    216_mslp500.png

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    240_mslp500.png

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    240_mslp500_arc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The consistent output from the ECM suite is very ominous in building an intense anticyclone over the UK in week 2. So after a little bit of instability in the south and maybe a soft breakdown as the Azores high rebuilds but otherwise conditions look like become dry and sunny across most of the UK again with temperatures rising again.

    The south looks very warm even at the coolest points throughout and possibly turning hot in week 2. Very July 2013 at this stage in the position of the high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

     Very July 2013 at this stage in the position of the high.

     

    Just what I was thinking. And that lasted for some considerable time, if i'm right in thinking...tho, what followed in August wouldnt please many on here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 00z mean also looks great for most of the first half of July with heights extending from the azores to scandinavia, england and wales in particular look predominantly very warm and settled during the next few weeks and the Ecm is even better longer term nationwide!..loving this spell!????????? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Very odd that we are searching the models for breakdowns. So different to a normal U.K. summer that’s for sure. ECM looks amazing again!

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    27 minutes ago, draztik said:

    Just what I was thinking. And that lasted for some considerable time, if i'm right in thinking...tho, what followed in August wouldnt please many on here.

    August was unspectacular but drier and warmer than average. For those wanting rain though, think a few months later than August. Given the seemingly extreme set ups we have seen a turbocharged Atlantic jet later in the year would not surprise me.

    You would think we would see a return to westerlies at some point this summer given that the arctic circle will begin to cool and  the subtropical continue to warm increasing the thermal gradient across the Atlantic with perhaps  background signals favourite a decline to a more changeable pattern longer term. Still just a case of waiting, luckily again the week 2 charts from the ECM would again suggest low humidity and this week will likely see temperatures which are a little lower than the ones seen this week in some places.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    26 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    The consistent output from the ECM suite is very ominous in building an intense anticyclone over the UK in week 2. So after a little bit of instability in the south and maybe a soft breakdown as the Azores high rebuilds but otherwise conditions look like become dry and sunny across most of the UK again with temperatures rising again.

    The south looks very warm even at the coolest points throughout and possibly turning hot in week 2. Very July 2013 at this stage in the position of the high.

    Yes agree with the comparison with July 2013. I do wonder if we may do better temperature wise though due to the very warm and extremely dry May and June we've had this year.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM this morning has dropped the precipitation levels for the south to no more than a few light showers next week. It has introduced one cloudy day on Wednesday, where it is slightly cooler in the south (low 20s) while still very warm in the north of England (high 20s). Apart from that, it's high 20s for most of England every day, bit more hit and miss for daily temps in Scotland but a fine summer week mostly even here. But it's probably one of those weeks where we won't be absolutely sure until the day - my gut feeling is there's a thunderstorm in there somewhere. 

    Next weekend it actually hots up more with temps above 30C on the raw data alone. Looks like heatwave part 2 might be hotter than heatwave part 1 for most. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Very rarely post in here but from listening to Gavin P's video on his website last night it would appear that both JMA and CFS have higher than average pressure over the UK well into July, possibly even to the end of the month. This is also accompanied by higher than average temperatures and, of no surprise, well below average rainfall. A long way off in terms of forecasting and we all know that long range models can be unreliable, but with such a strong high pressure having been over us for so long it is going to take some shifting and there are no signs of anything remotely strong enough to attempt it.

    www.gavsweathervids.com

    The jet stream is unusually far north, running almost around the Arctic circle. In summer it is normally running straight through us or just north of us. I am likening our weather at the moment to what normally occurs over Southern Europe whereby the summer brings weeks and weeks of crystal clear blue skies and sunshine. This year is the year that people living in the eastern Med would do well to book a holiday to the UK to get there sun fix.

    After what is likely to be the driest June on record, and certainly the warmest since 1976, a prolonged hot and dry spell lasting throughout July is bound to lead to the onset of water shortages, despite the wet Jan-Mar period. Understandably the UK does have more prolonged dry spells, but if July ends up like June has then it will be truly exceptional with three months of significantly below average rainfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    ECM this morning has dropped the precipitation levels for the south to no more than a few light showers next week. It has introduced one cloudy day on Wednesday, where it is slightly cooler in the south (low 20s) while still very warm in the north of England (high 20s). Apart from that, it's high 20s for most of England every day, bit more hit and miss for daily temps in Scotland but a fine summer week mostly even here. But it's probably one of those weeks where we won't be absolutely sure until the day - my gut feeling is there's a thunderstorm in there somewhere. 

    Next weekend it actually hots up more with temps above 30C on the raw data alone. Looks like heatwave part 2 might be hotter than heatwave part 1 for most. 

    Brilliant just brilliant!!ecm is even better than last night especially with that little disturbance which was across scotland at 72 hours but further north today!cant get much hetter surely!!sundays still looks roasting for parts of england according to arpege!!and high twenties means temps a few degrees higher than that on the ecm in reality?

    Edited by shaky
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    6 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Brilliant just brilliant!!ecm is even better than last night especially with that little disturbance which was across scotland at 72 hours but further north today!cant get much hetter surely!!sundays still looks roasting for parts of england according to arpege!!

    Studying some of the models for tomorrow, looks like the temps will depend on a little disturbance coming up from the south (may or may not have rain) tomorrow afternoon. If it arrives early afternoon, temps probably reaching 30-32C in the SE before arrival; if it arrives late afternoon, I think 32-34C could be on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Stunning Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term which mirrors the operational..what a wonderful spell this is and what an absolutely sensational  spell it could end up being..summer at its BEST!?

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    56 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Loving the Ecm 00z..???:air_kiss:??️?⛱️

    168_mslp500.png

    168_thickuk.png

    192_mslp500.png

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    216_mslp500.png

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    240_mslp500.png

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    Maybe I was wrong yesterday, when I suggested that your charts couldn't be bettered, Frosty? 'Fabulous' is fast becoming my favourite adjective!⛱️

    Make Summer great again!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    It looks like Wimbledon will make it to the end of week 1 without a single drop of rain

    GFS

    186-777UK.thumb.GIF.07ea798047064dd161b312db39478748.GIF

    ECM

    e2928db3-d140-468b-b229-b45fee1c4ee6.thumb.png.6798a6f9e96463ceef1fcf7254d3eb44.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    It looks like Wimbledon will make it to the end of week 1 without a single drop of rain

    GFS

    186-777UK.thumb.GIF.07ea798047064dd161b312db39478748.GIF

    ECM

    e2928db3-d140-468b-b229-b45fee1c4ee6.thumb.png.6798a6f9e96463ceef1fcf7254d3eb44.png

    Possibly, and if it was still in it's traditional start at the end of June slot, we would have just finished a baking first week, with a hot second week to come. Could have gone down as one of the best Wimbledon tournaments (weather wise) in history.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    How is the heat over here affecting parts of eastern europe and the med? Is it having a big impact there? Ive heard so. Oh well we have waited long enough for this. I dont feel bad for it either lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro this morning is pretty incredible again building a significant high and extending our current lack of rainfall here well into the 20+ day point. 

    ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

    GFS however (likely as a result of expecting more trade wind activity in the central and eastern Pacific) has the Atlantic headed through at day 8..

    GFSOPEU00_192_33.png

    u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    Yes agree with the comparison with July 2013. I do wonder if we may do better temperature wise though due to the very warm and extremely dry May and June we've had this year.

     

    Euro looks vaguely like 2013 but the high pressure belts never got further north than the UK in July 2013 and it was a very Azores High pattern. This has more of an air of August 95 or 47. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    14 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

    How is the heat over here affecting parts of eastern europe and the med? Is it having a big impact there? Ive heard so. Oh well we have waited long enough for this. I dont feel bad for it either lol

    The weather tends to balance out, so if one place is having one extreme - i.e. us having the heat and very dry conditions, it will be abnormally cold and wet somewhere else. Greece has had devastating floods, and much of eastern Europe has been unsettled for a while now. Iberia has also had a fairly unsettled late spring/early summer with persistent troughs plaguing the area.

    ECH1-24.GIF?30-12ECH0-24.GIF?30-12

    This cold plunge tomorrow means Warsaw is only like to see 15c tomorrow, very poor for July. West has definitely been best for summer 2018. Scandinavia is also having a record breaking run of heat. Oslo is looking at yet another week of temps in the 28-32c range, incredible really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The weather tends to balance out, so if one place is having one extreme - i.e. us having the heat and very dry conditions, it will be abnormally cold and wet somewhere else. Greece has had devastating floods, and much of eastern Europe has been unsettled for a while now. Iberia has also had a fairly unsettled late spring/early summer with persistent troughs plaguing the area.

    ECH1-24.GIF?30-12ECH0-24.GIF?30-12

    This cold plunge tomorrow means Warsaw is only like to see 15c tomorrow, very poor for July. West has definitely been best for summer 2018. Scandinavia is also having a record breaking run of heat. Oslo is looking at yet another week of temps in the 28-32c range, incredible really.

    I think I can recall newspapers reporting sleet/snow in Kiev during June/July 1976...DQM though - papers have a habit of exaggeration!

    PS: And old farts can have memory problems!

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    extended ens modelling keeps high anomalies across nw Europe but nw Russian low anomolys begin to spread slowly sw by the end of week 2.  Does this lock in the upper ridge in our vicinity rather than allowing it to migrate east ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth,Lincolnshire
  • Location: Louth,Lincolnshire

    Just a quick post in here not sure if this is allowed, but been keeping an eye on the bcc 500hpa height anomaly day 31 to 40 they seem to high pressure over the UK or just to our east as head into August interesting times ahead 

    md2018071gl_h5d4_3.gif

    Edited by Hurricane Andrew
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    1 hour ago, Snowjokes92 said:

    How is the heat over here affecting parts of eastern europe and the med? Is it having a big impact there? Ive heard so. Oh well we have waited long enough for this. I dont feel bad for it either lol

    It usually is the case if Western Europe is seeing the extreme heat, then Eastern Europe will be cooler than usual and the same goes the other way, back in the likes of 2010 and 2012, Eastern Europe was ridiculously hot (was in Greece in August 2010, and Temps exceeded 40c every day! And that extreme Russian heatwave was going on, 40c in Moscow!!) while we bore the brunt of cool temperatures and rain. I’ve seen Gavin partridge mention this a few times in the past. 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Stunning Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term which mirrors the operational..what a wonderful spell this is and what an absolutely sensational  spell it could end up being..summer at its BEST!?

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    I find the T240 chart there astonishing!  Such a huge 1030 showing on a mean chart at 10 days time.  There's not a lot of uncertainty there, so I checked the spread, here:

    image.thumb.jpg.fba04489e6e41f658e8f0c4c9a6d351a.jpg

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