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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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At this range ARPEGE probably the best for resolving precipitation, here at T68:

arpegeuk-1-68-0.png?27-18

The snow looks a south of the M4 only event to me! :rofl:

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GFS trumped by the GEM for the bank holiday, not holding back here, 1040 high:

gem-0-240.png?12

GFS for comparison:

gfs-0-240.png?12

And to think my last post was about snow!  Bonkers!

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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At this range ARPEGE probably the best for resolving precipitation, here at T68:

arpegeuk-1-68-0.png?27-18

The snow looks a south of the M4 only event to me! :rofl:

how good is Aperge? looks too far east, GFS finally coming inline, GEM though too far East

probably Ed, but those charts posted by SS are great

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

how good is Aperge? looks too far east, GFS finally coming inline, GEM though too far East

probably Ed, but those charts posted by SS are great

I was talking about precipitation specifically , GFS pretty poor at this! ARPEGE is higher resolution (in Europe) so should be better, only goes out 4 and a bit days though.  Get to within 48 hours and there are other higher resolution models, the HIRLAM seems a favourite after performing well with the snow earlier this year.

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I would happily settle for what the GEM 12z shows for the BH weekend and beyond..increasingly fine and warm under a strengthening anticyclone.🌞:)

219_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I was talking about precipitation specifically , GFS pretty poor at this! ARPEGE is higher resolution (in Europe) so should be better, only goes out 4 and a bit days though.  Get to within 48 hours and there are other higher resolution models, the HIRLAM seems a favourite after performing well with the snow earlier this year.

Ay, cos that's not bad, at least a dry start maybe even morning here

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Good to see the orange colours returning as we get towards the start of the BH weekend

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.f06d29ec2789184b08899ff6ffaa8da1.png

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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ECM still has plenty of marginal snow for many central/southern areas on Monday. No backing down so far.

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM still has plenty of marginal snow for many central/southern areas on Monday. No backing down so far.

The Gfs 12z shows a risk of snow on tuesday morning too..May 1st!:crazy::cold::D❄❄❄⛄⛄

12_90_preciptype.png

12_90_ukwbt.png

 

Edited by Frosty.
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ECM looks good for the warm up, and given a big tick from the GEM earlier and a smaller tick from the GFS, I think this warm up for the bank holiday is going to happen.  ECM T192 if you look at the 1020 countour depicts a marvellous feline leaping across UK into Scandinavia bringing the warmth:

ECM1-192.GIF?27-0

T216:

ECM1-216.GIF?27-0

T240 looks a little odd, but I think things are going the right way for a warm up!

ECM1-240.GIF?27-0

This thread has a surreal quality to it today with discussion of both snow and summer warmth,weird!

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM looks good for the warm up,

I think things are going the right way for a warm up!

 

Agreed mike, the Ecm 12z shows much better weather later next week as high pressure ridges in and temperatures rise significantly!:)🌞

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_thick.png

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Good to see the orange colours returning as we get towards the start of the BH weekend

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.f06d29ec2789184b08899ff6ffaa8da1.png

:)

The trend, yes. But the graph you post is a little misleading, as the reality on the ground is a continued below average period. 

A65D0D91-5C86-48A2-AF18-F5CE95DF43B9.jpeg

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12z GFS ens coming on board now for a warmer spell later next week might not last too long but the timing could be perfect given it's a holiday weekend

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.6af3bb38b48a603374db31449472335a.png

 

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Last post from me today, I think the potential for snow not the main thing with the Sunday Monday system, these systems coming from the south are relatively rare, but from looks of the model output could hit the SE quite hard, GFS cumulative rainfall over just 72hrs:

72-777UK.GIF?27-12

Switching modes of attention to the bank holiday weekend, ECM mean at T192 giving good support to the idea of a warm and settled spell developing:

EDM1-192.GIF

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The BH weekend could be really nice if we get some luck!..:)

This is my pick of the GEFS 12z..potentially a fine and much warmer spell later next week.🌞:)

2_198_500mb.png

4_198_500mb.png

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5_222_2mtmpmax.png

5_222_500mb.png

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7_222_500mb.png

7_246_500mb.png

7_246_2mtmpmax.png

12_192_500mb.png

12_222_2mtmpmax.png

12_222_500mb.png

20_198_500mb.png

20_198_2mtmpmax.png

20_222_2mtmpmax.png

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Evening All.....! Sundays low poses a problem for southeast Britain , the southeast of England may see the highest total rainfall ,into Monday ,but some strong gusts of wind up to 50 mph looks likely across most of the southern half  of the UK, Feeling cold and very unseasonable , then the models argue at the ten day range with high pressure building PLEASE!:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

mum.png

mumx.png

mumxx.png

mumxxx.png

mumxxxx.png

post-9614-0-72260800-1437508490.jpg

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Yes - looks like parts of East Anglia will get a double whammy of high rainfall totals and high wind gusts during Monday and Tuesday - possibly Cromer to get the brunt of it....

image.thumb.gif.a0cdc2598c73947eedef89e879fbb195.gif   image.thumb.gif.be9ab6767e609ccda61235e450b8efb8.gifP

Did someone mention Spring?

 

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5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Yes - looks like parts of East Anglia will get a double whammy of high rainfall totals and high wind gusts during Monday and Tuesday - possibly Cromer to get the brunt of it....

image.thumb.gif.a0cdc2598c73947eedef89e879fbb195.gif   image.thumb.gif.be9ab6767e609ccda61235e450b8efb8.gifP

Did someone mention Spring?

 

its looking dreadful for us  on the east coast  monday

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Next Monday across most of england and wales looks very cold, very wet and windy with torrential rain and disruption due to localised flooding, even some sleet and wet snow mixed in on higher ground and most of next week looks generally unsettled from the atlantic but the Ecm 12z ensemble mean then indicates a much better spell of fine and warmer weather later next week and during the BH weekend, particularly further south.:)

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Good news, the Ecm 00z still shows a nice warm up and high pressure in time for the BH weekend, it stays fine thereafter with a strong azores ridge extending across the uk.:)🌞

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Good news from 00z GEM as well with a mainly settled BH weekend with high pressure close by for most

GEMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.8e7f42345b92598140d00ecd95edd038.pngGEMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.5bfef552f7df9ba3533045f10f6ee0ae.pngGEMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.5383ccf30c09c33a4144171caf7a36dd.pngGEMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.51fd5788af5cdeade619aefccff67323.png

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00z ens continues to show a warm up towards the end next week and into the 1st part of the following week

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.bd8d84cc79c67c8b94e85f9d5cbc7828.png

The warm-up is showing quite nicely on the 7-day trend again

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.1715fa12d180a01f1a1b5cfd25be13a2.png

The week overall will average out a below normal but temps should begin to slowly climb from around Wednesday with London shown to be at 16c on Thursday & 20c by Saturday

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.b490b084cbbd643d9922e7ff61fbadb8.png

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Looking like an increasing chance of a reasonable BH weekend, but depending on the ridging or position of an anticyclone there is the risk of a cool easterly onshore flow off the North Sea for eastern parts, better further west (and also south with short sea crossing from warm continent). The chart below for Saturday 5th pretty much representative for Friday-Monday on today's GFS 06z -

5ae4302651f77_180-778UK18042800.thumb.gif.c586e6765bc0fee36085cf3b2f9248ae.gif

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