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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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It's worth appreciating that we all have different abilities to cope with high temperatures, due to variations in metabolism, body mass etc.

 

Back to the models - some uncertainty regarding how far north the ridge from the UK to Scandinavia sets up next week, alongside strong indications that slack lows will be loitering to the south of it. This is making for a very unclear picture in terms of rainfall across southern parts; a relatively small adjustment in position makes the difference between hardly anything and some slow moving showers that could be heavy and therefore put down a lot of rain in some spots (but with others potentially still not seeing much).

The orientation of the high-low boundary also affects temperatures by several degrees - the 00z and 06z GFS for Tuesday show this well when compared.

 

As of +120, the 06z GFS is a step toward the UKMO 00z with SLP generally a bit higher and the ridge centre more toward Scandinavia as opposed to due N of the UK. It will be interesting to see if it manages to push a more organised area of rain through, which is what the 00z ECM managed; that run had slightly lower SLP but similar positioning of the ridge, so it will give some indication as to the margin between dry and (at least a little bit) wet.

 

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z is another cracker and the azores high builds in strongly towards the end which would strengthen and extend this glorious spell well into july..it could go on and on..and on!🌡️🌞😎

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Phenomenal how high that jet is and entrenched the HP is. Can’t see it ending anytime soon. 

Amazing spell of weather this is. 

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06z GFS at 138hrs, lows pulling back into the Atlantic with the jet much better aligned SW-NE. Looks poised to build a good ridge thru Uk and Scandanavia here. 

4AA5F2F5-38C2-46E8-B840-CE16EE90BBBC.jpeg

Edited by Craig84

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By 192hrs High pressure from the SW has reinforced the ridging. Considering we’d already be 2 weeks into a fine spell by this point, it’s fast becoming an exceptional spell of weather. 😎

 

 

BA99D25C-5E11-46BD-B407-8EBD99137636.jpeg

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Fantastic 06z if you like hot weather!!high pressure stronger and in a more favourable position!!temps in the high 20s for the whole of next week!!big upgrade on the temps compared to the 00z run!!

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hgt300.png hgt300.png

N. Atlantic jet pattern adjusted toward recent UKMO and ECM solutions. 

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png

HP closer by than ECM 00z so this run is more like how UKMO 00z may have evolved.

It did manage to get a very weak area of LP across England on Thursday but the result was no more than scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms - potentially useful for those who score a hit, but with attendant fire (from lightning) and flash-flood (from high rain rates on rock-hard ground) risks.

So it seems the ECM 00z was among the most aggressive solutions in terms of pushing a LP across prior to the ridge from the Azores taking over.

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210hrs we’re right back in heatwave territory. Goodness me!

CB4F45F0-5D84-4662-849C-C60D2D854F37.jpeg

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Arpege continues to upgrade the hot plume of air from france for sunday!!now we get +17 degree 850 temps going up into the midlands and temps at around 32 or 33 degrees!!surely cant be wrong at just 2 days out!!

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29c around London and the South coast showing for Sunday on the Net-Wx MR Model.

fri.thumb.png.e2e105ce61b7b883909d21be916a4fab.png

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30 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

29c around London and the South coast showing for Sunday on the Net-Wx MR Model.

fri.thumb.png.e2e105ce61b7b883909d21be916a4fab.png

6Z absolute summer, 33 degrees in parts next Sunday 8th

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, most if not all of the first half of July is predominantly settled and very warm with initially the blocking high to the NE and then mainly due to strong azores high / ridging prolonging the summery weather until around mid July the further south you are..hope it keeps extending!😎🌡️🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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9 minutes ago, SnowJon said:

Expect this to expand to more areas. I can’t see any end to this heatwave, with zero signs for anyone seeking cooler weather to grasp, at least in the short term. The ECMWF should retire it’s 46dayer model, as it is an utter embarrassment. Almost the exact reversal is playing out than what it was showing update after update. To those enduring these conditions, it won’t last forever. That’s the only good news I can muster at this stage. I’ll be looking for every opportunity out of hell when I return from my break away. 

Edited by draztik

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5 minutes ago, draztik said:

Expect this to expand to more areas. I can’t see any end to this heatwave, with zero signs for anyone seeking cooler weather to grasp, at least in the short term. The ECMWF should retire it’s 46dayer model, as it is an utter embarrassment. Almost the exact reversal is playing out than what it was showing update after update. To those enduring these conditions, it won’t last forever. That’s the only good news I can muster at this stage. I’ll be looking for every opportunity out of hell when I return from my break away. 

Wow, draztik, are you throwing in the towel??!

Actually if the ARPEGE is right you may be getting some rain in the SW quite soon

arpegeuk-25-72-0.png?29-13

Doesn't stop the heat though

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Looking at this mornings gfs run it wouldn’t be out of the question to suggest at least the next 10days could reach 30c. Staggering.

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Off on holiday to Cape Verde in a couple of weeks time.  Booked it up  as  hot weather holiday. Increasingly looks like it might be a holiday from the hot weather!

With the Azores high consistently surging up towards us as the models seem to be consistently showing us now, does anyone know if this hinders or helps the developments of Atlantic hurricanes? 

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The highest pressure in the next ridge seems to be too far north to pull in true heatwave conditions but will still be fine

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Needless to say the 6z was a warm outlier, as well as a pressure outlier on the pressure ensembles - much higher than he mean etc.

not out of the question yet, but at this stage not the favoured solution to get a big anticyclone sat slap bang over the UK

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The wobble in the middle of next week looks to be just a slight slackening of pressure in the vicinity of the UK according to ICON 12z.  Then the build back in of high pressure with the Atlantic nowhere, here T120, T180:

image.thumb.jpg.c6fc7da95bd0969c243b046e859c510f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.532bbffe312e1baefc32d67d8120b7b3.jpg

Incredible!  The UKMO has the ridge back in and in total control at T144!

image.thumb.jpg.3013c589a3a198abf950b41ac4875d2c.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Fab UKMO tonight, high pressure back in control by 144 hours. Staying very warm too.

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Lovely stuff from the ukmo 12z ..indeed, that goes for the other models too!😎..keeps all the cr*p weather up near iceland / greenland..long may that continue!🌞

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

cashback.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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Hmm I might be going against the grain here but there is a fly in the ointment at a very short timescale developing. We still have no agreement on how the approaching Atlantic trough behaves over the weekend and where any potential cut off low goes (if this forms at all). The GEM shows it stalling close to the UK bringing showers and slightly cooler conditions for next week and frankly given the uncertainty over this you couldn't discount a cold pool landing over the UK. On the other hand the trough could still clear eastwards cleanly or even sink west of the UK and feed into the low south west of the UK which could push hot air further north next week.

I am not making any call here, the broad trend is clear but it doesn't take into account the possibility of disturbances which could take away the generally warm and sunny outlook.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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