Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Djdazzle]

If ECM verified it would be very hot and humid over the weekend in the south.

[Mike Poole]

ECM looks a good run to me.  Here at T120, extending the heat to Monday, then what is looking like a slight wobble, then at T168 lowest pressure contour in region of UK is 1015.  Then at T 240:

Yes a change of wind direction, but remaining settled.

 

[MKN]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Just one Q please, Tamara: Do you have any idea of how long it would take the developing El Nino signal to overwhelm the inertia contained within the overall ocean-atmosphere system? Does the burgeoning Nino have sufficient momentum to force a major pattern-change, this side of Autumn, do you think? I do struggle with teleconnections!

Teleconnections aren't worth looking at. Keep your eyes on the operational outputs from the main players and look at trends and you won't go far wrong. As for long term it's pie in the sky no one can say what the weather is gonna be in 3/4 months and even then best guess is a continuation of a trend baring a significant weather event like an SSW in winter. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by MKN

[Frosty.]

Very good Ecm 12z, plenty more glorious sunshine to come and continuing very warm / hot, it's also likely to become increasingly humid by the end of this week and into next week, especially further south with a risk of a few thunderstorms and the very warm weather continues across southern uk even by day 10..very summery indeed across most of the uk..better than the 00z!.

Edited June 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, MKN said:

Teleconnections aren't worth looking at. Keep your eyes on the operational outputs from the main players and look at trends and you won't go far wrong. As for long term it's pie in the sky no one can say what the weather is gonna be in 3/4 months and even then best guess is a continuation of a trend baring a significant weather event like an SSW in winter. 

Errrr.... who correctly forecast this settled spell weeks ago? It was @Tamara

[Man With Beard]

Just one more observation from the ECM op run - raw data shows maximums between 27 and 29C from Sunday to as late as next Thursday - going by what usually happens based on these charts, that would actually result in 30 to 32C. I suspect the ECM may be overcooking this one but it'll have been some heatwave if it's right. 

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just one more observation from the ECM op run - raw data shows maximums between 27 and 29C from Sunday to as late as next Thursday - going by what usually happens based on these charts, that would actually result in 30 to 32C. I suspect the ECM may be overcooking this one but it'll have been some heatwave if it's right. 

Is that widely across england and wales or the usual spots such as london lol!!

[Uncle_Barty]

34 minutes ago, MKN said:

Teleconnections aren't worth looking at. Keep your eyes on the operational outputs from the main players and look at trends and you won't go far wrong. As for long term it's pie in the sky no one can say what the weather is gonna be in 3/4 months and even then best guess is a continuation of a trend baring a significant weather event like an SSW in winter. 

Au Contraire. I think Tamara has called the progress of this summer pretty well so far, both in explaining why she thinks will turn out the way they will, and also how things could go wrong. Her posts make fascinating reading.

[Mike Poole]

The ECM ensemble mean looks in support of the op run tonight, keeps the heat until Monday, and high pressure building back in at T240:

So which is more likely, the solution offered by GFS, GEM of a breakdown to unsettled weather, or prolonging the heat, a wobble and a reload as suggested by ECM, ECM mean and hinted at by UKMO?  I favour the latter on the basis of two additional things, first the background signals so well explained by @Tamaraearlier in the thread, and the second is the long range models - the recently published June Met Office contingency planners forecast backs up the earlier GloSea5 output that I think I posted here, namely significant probability of well above average temperatures for July and the 3 month period.  Summer 18 still favoured to be a classic. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that widely across england and wales or the usual spots such as london lol!!

London does well yes - most of the heat spots are towards the east from Sunday onwards, but still fairly hot in central areas too until Wednesday /Thursday. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Guest]

Those usual places aren’t doing so well this evening - places in the east are at 8pm are currently 8-10c cooler than places like Bristol, Yeovil etc.

Good to see a slight extension in the warm and sunny weather that should get though the weekend in the 12z models, amazing how they’ve been faffing about over the breakdown for about 5day now and it’s still not totally revolved.

 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z reinforcing the UKMO and ECM rather than GFS.  Only goes to t120, but like the 12z has a stronger ridge from the Azores, here's both runs at T120:

 

[Mike Poole]

Key timeframe T120 on the GFS 18z, and it looks to me like the GFS is edging towards the euros now, bit like it seems to in winter when it's gone off on one, hinting at ridging over the low, here's the 18z and 12z at T126 for comparison, you can see the small steps taken in the right direction (assuming the ECM and UKMO have the right solution).

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Key timeframe T120 on the GFS 18z, and it looks to me like the GFS is edging towards the euros now, bit like it seems to in winter when it's gone off on one, hinting at ridging over the low, here's the 18z and 12z at T126 for comparison, you can see the small steps taken in the right direction (assuming the ECM and UKMO have the right solution).

Yup it most certainly has!!maybe expect it to come.into line with ecm and ukmo fully tomorrow!!amazing hot weather set to continue for a while yet!!

[mb018538]

Things not looking bad at all into the early part of next week, here UKMO and ECM at 144 hours:

 

    

No washout, and probably not as bad as first feared.

[Leo97t]

Heatwave continues to the 4th for the south but not looking good after that. Very changeable with the high struggling to move in

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Leo97t said:

Heatwave continues to the 4th for the south but not looking good after that. Very changeable with the high struggling to move in

Have you not seen the ECM?



High pressure moving in again at day 10. If there's one model you want to be showing this, it's the ECM.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Leo97t said:

Heatwave continues to the 4th for the south but not looking good after that. Very changeable with the high struggling to move in

Which models are you looking at? ECM is great with barely any breakdown and high pressure ready to build back in. Very warm from the Scottish border southwards well into next week (midweek and beyond) if the ECM is correct.

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, MKN said:

Teleconnections aren't worth looking at. Keep your eyes on the operational outputs from the main players and look at trends and you won't go far wrong. As for long term it's pie in the sky no one can say what the weather is gonna be in 3/4 months and even then best guess is a continuation of a trend baring a significant weather event like an SSW in winter. 

I really do think you've misunderstood the point I was making, MKN...As it certainly wasn't anything like what you seem to be suggesting?

[summer blizzard]

More divergence and complications today..

Today's Euro essentially takes a messier option in that it never properly gets the Atlantic through albeit the spell is over by day 7.

Today's GFS is aggressive again and has the proper spell over by day 4/5 as we get increasingly thundery showers and an eventual Atlantic front. 

.

Moral of the story is no clean breakdown today. 

[MKN]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I really do think you've misunderstood the point I was making, MKN...As it certainly wasn't anything like what you seem to be suggesting?

Just thought based on your comment you struggle with teleconnections it may be easier to focus on operational outputs to guage your own thoughts as to which direction our weather may go in than looking at that method of forecasting. Tamara, glacial point and a few others of course do so largely successfully but they have years and years of experience doing so. Anyway getting off topic. 

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z is highly agressive.

The high has been given the boot by day 4 and the Atlantic is through by 6.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters this morning - none of them like the GFS in bringing the Iberian low so close to us (cluster 2 does eventually but not until later in the week):

  

Further out, only one cluster between D11-D15 but I think the ensemble mean for pressure is sufficient to see we are probably headed next - this is the start of the following week (last night's was in the same direction):

Growing confidence for more high pressure as we go into July, then.

 

[shaky]

28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS6z is highly agressive.

The high has been given the boot by day 4 and the Atlantic is through by 6.

Massive changes with that iberain low though!!much further south compared to what the 06z was showing yesterday for sunday!!clearly going the euro route as always lol!!weekend looks much better on the gfs now!!

[mb018538]

Might be that this breakdown never really gains much traction, just a slight re-adjustment before high pressure starts to rebuild into July. We will see, but the clusters/anomalies & met update seem to favour this too.



6z op was a wet outlier with regards to the Biscay low, so something more akin tot eh UKMO/ECM solution should be favoured here.