Model output discussion 14/04/18

[mb018538]

GFS 6z sticking two fingers up at the ECM for the weekend:



Very hot again on Sunday if this verifies.

[shaky]

And the heat goes on and on into next week aswell!!amazing stuff!!hot and sunny!!high over the uk at 1020mb at 204 hours !!

[Man With Beard]

Differences in the ensembles for 1st July getting a bit smaller but still some way to go:

The outlook beyond that seems to hinge on whether heights can stay strong to our east during this period. Runs with strong heights at D7/D8 lead to good heights through the UK right the way to D15 - those without good heights at this point go downhill into an unsettled period. Look at the precise and very stark 50/50 split on the D13 chart!

  

So a UKMO 00Z / GFS 06Z style chart at T144 may not merely be settled for the coming weekend, but also for the week that follows.

[mb018538]

Yikes, those 240 charts don't look good!

That middle cluster is vile. Hopefully higher heights can hold on.

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational is a warm run, especially further s / e..this week it's all about high pressure and very warm / hot sunny days and warm clear nights whereas next week it's looking more humid / unstable with heavy showers / thunderstorms but some sunny weather too.

[Dominic Carey]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

And the heat goes on and on into next week aswell!!amazing stuff!!hot and sunny!!high over the uk at 1020mb at 204 hours !!

This is very good to hear

[mb018538]

While the 6z was a very nice run in the mid term, it was actually a dry outlier.....there are a lot of ppn spikes appearing now, meaning an increasingly large number of ensemble members are bringing the low into play. The 12z runs will be interesting tonight for sure.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean...this week = Glorious very warm / hot anticyclonic, hottest further south. Next week, increasingly humid / unstable continental thundery conditions then briefly fresher from the west followed by another surge from the azores high / ridge.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5 charts

GFS/UKMO/GEM

      

That Atlantic trough is getting a little too close for comfort though most areas are fine and very warm at this point. Still the risk of low cloud across the NE from Friday onwards due to an increasing easterly breeze. A good result would be for that trough to go NE and keep the UK fine or stall out west to initiate a plume, trouble is that middle ground where the trough worms its way across the UK with the help of that low close to Portugal. A lot can change but a plume event looks a struggle as the initial placement of the low looks a little too far east as you would assume any reinvigoration of that low will pull it north east like the ECM op this morning.

Still a solid spell of fine and very warm weather which will last up to at least Saturday and hopefully eastern areas will at least remain bright even if temperatures will cool a little due to an onshore wind.

[Leo97t]

Couple possible scenarios. First is Plume followed by brief breakdown, then restoration of Azores High. Second option would be for a Plume followed by a more Atlantic breakdown. Third option is a straight Atlantic breakdown. I guess constant Azores high is also possible. Will pick up more clues when ECM is out

[Singularity]

UKMO's stepped across to something nearer the 00z ECM, though not as pushy with that low, which stays focused a bit further south and west.

GFS has remained pretty steady today with how that low behaves; small adjustments this way and that. Shame the run then gets thrown off course by an unusually intense cyclone off the SW tip of Greenland days 6-7 though (draws cool air much further into N. Atlantic than would otherwise occur, which kicks the polar jet into high gear... classic GFS? Hopefully!).

GEM sits in a similar position to GFS with respect to the weekend, as is along the lines of the GFS 06z thereafter, so more believable than the GFS 12z.

 

Hoping to see ECM at least take a small step back with respect to the weekend low's northward progression; I'm fine with some t-storms on Sunday, but they need to leave Saturday alone for the sake of the dry June record! 

[Guest]

A messy and gradual breakdown on this evenings gfs that introduces the Atlantic eventually. It wouldn’t surprise me if this sort scenario pans out however I just wonder whether the models still don’t have a great handle on things. Most surprising thing with this will be the highest temps will be away from London with anywhere from Manchester down through the midlands and towards inland Hants, Dorset and westwards likely to peak at about 30/31c.

[mb018538]

Looks like we’re firming up on the weekend introducing some sort lf breakdown - after that it could be anything. Not much help at the moment with the model runs changing so much each time.

[MR EXTREMES]

30c reached today.

Expecting more heat over the next few days into the start of the weekend.

Humidity might rise towards the weekend.

Models for now pretty much hold steady in the strong stubborn block.

A common theme in solar minimum coupled with other factors such as east qbo and natural Nino.

I'm expecting more height dominant summer.

 

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean...this week = Glorious very warm / hot anticyclonic, hottest further south. Next week, increasingly humid / unstable continental thundery conditions then briefly fresher from the west followed by another surge from the azores high / ridge.

Ditto the GEFS 12z mean..becoming increasingly humid from the south with a risk of thunderstorms for much of next week further south / east but coming back to this week..Beautiful isn't it.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks fabulous this evening out to 168.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks fabulous this evening out to 168.

Yep, much better than the 00z run. Very different though, so how the low behaves is going to dictate what we get after....plenty to decide. Probably staying hot in many places until Sunday.

[mb018538]

This looks to be a problem to me...by 192 hours you have a major plume of hot air coming off the NE of the states....

This brings about a strong thermal gradient and fires the jet back up (which has been dead for most of the time recently). This could really scupper any build of pressure into July.

[Djdazzle]

The ECM much better in the reliable though. If it’s only showing the jet sparking up at 192 that’s not a huge worry yet.

[shaky]

Much much better ecm this evening!!largely hot and sunny most probably for the weekend according to this run!!amazing how that low has virtually gone way way further south this run!!expect more chopping and changing till then!!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z T+240 chart shows signs of recovery but why am I even talking about day 10 when this run shows many more gorgeous days through the rest of this week plus the weekend and early next week and becoming increasingly humid further s / e / se with a growing chance of thunderstorms for the s / se from the near continent by the end of this week and first half of next week with some homegrown storms too...as was also mentioned by the met office in today's update.

[TJS1998Tom]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z T+240 chart shows signs of recovery but why am I even talking about day 10 when this run shows many more gorgeous days through the rest of this week plus the weekend and early next week and becoming increasingly humid further s / e / se with a growing chance of thunderstorms for the s / se from the near continent by the end of this week and first half of next week with some homegrown storms too...as was also mentioned by the met office in today's update.

If any home growns was to come out from this would anywhere have a chance or mostly the South?

Edit. Ah nvm, didn't notice you put s/e/se there

Edited June 25, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[Singularity]

I must admit that after the UKMO 12z I didn’t see such a swing back toward more stable from ECM coming! Goes to show, you can’t never truly know at that sort of range.

Signs of the mid-Atlantic trough longer term but the models struggling to resist engaging the eastern flank with warm air plumes when in reality we hope that ridges from the Azores will suppress that.

Edited June 25, 2018 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

For the rest of this week the Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates plenty more of what we've seen today..i.e..high pressure bringing beautiful blue skies and hot sunshine. As I've mentioned a few times today there is a risk of T-Storms spreading up across southern / southeast england from France from around sunday into the start of next week as it does look like becoming more humid further south during that period but then the mean shows a gradual change from the west from around next midweek as cooler / fresher atlantic air spreads in but of course that could change. 

Edited June 25, 2018 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

Euro 12z much improved from the 0z for heat and basically moves to back its run last night with a simpler breakdown at day 8.