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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think you're right, SB: this June hasn't had the same degree of early June warmth that 1976 had; for it to equal that monthly CET, this year, really would take some doing, IMO...?

July though might be different, however, as the last two weeks of July '76 weren't really all that special. I know this because, in my infinite wisdom (and my being the consummate weather-prophet even then), that particular fortnight somehow coincided with my annual leave!:oops::unknw::wallbash:

July 2006 is the month to beat, this of course being the hottest CET month ever recorded with a mean of 19.7

Only 3 months have ever topped the 19c mean

July 2006 (19.7)

July 1983 (19.5) 

Aug 1995 (19.2)

 

 

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Great to see the models firming up on a heatwave next week and this weekend looks beautiful too apart from the far north tomorrow as fronts brush around the top of the high but sunday looks sunny for all.. very enjoyable model watching..hope it lasts a long time!.:smile:🔥😍😎🌞

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13 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

July 2006 is the month to beat, this of course being the hottest CET month ever recorded with a mean of 19.7

Only 3 months have ever topped the 19c mean

July 2006 (19.7)

July 1983 (19.5) 

Aug 1995 (19.2)

 

 

I turned 8 in August 1995 - great month, spending all day outside playing in the sun. On my birthday it was 31C - then the day after the heat broke down and it rained. Would love a repeat.

July 2006 was another kettle of fish though, if only because I was older (18) so remember it in more detail.

I wouldn't like to tempt fate and say we'll get a repeat this year but it would be very welcome by me.

Edited by cheese

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Scorching ecm up to 120 hours!!even warmer than gfs!!lets see what the 144 hour chart brings!!

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ECM half way out and it is already a corker!

image.thumb.jpg.9bc48d7be76705ab541438529c682b23.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.2f87ddcd9a43243f43f76a053da3c86b.jpg

You can really see on this run the effect of that low west of Portugal acting as a heat pump from the south, see the 850 temp chart.  Wonder where this one will go!

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Goodness gracious +18 850 temps across england at 144 hours!!how on earth has it managed to trump the furnace of a ukmo this evening!!could be dangerous heat next week😲

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Stunning Ecm 12z..major heat next week with +17 / 18 T850's by next thursday..probably the heat increasing further too!:shok:😍..how exciting is this run!

Edited by Frosty.
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19 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

July 2006 is the month to beat, this of course being the hottest CET month ever recorded with a mean of 19.7

Only 3 months have ever topped the 19c mean

July 2006 (19.7)

July 1983 (19.5) 

Aug 1995 (19.2)

 

 

July 2006 was probably the best summer month I could’ve ever asked for. What made it so good was the low humidity, which gave it a Mediterranean type feel, and just beautifully unbroken blue skies for weeks on end! 

This setup is beginning to look distinctly similar. 

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4 minutes ago, sausage said:

guys just out of interest what does 14-16c uppers normally transpire to?

Not quite as simples as that but in clear skies, light winds, continental draw, dry ground, build up of heat, height of summer... 28-35C would cover the range of maxes available. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Stunning Ecm 12z..major heat next week with +17 / 18 T850's by next thursday..probably the heat increasing further too!:shok:😍..how exciting is this run!

Surely it's only winter we anticipate every frame of the ECM.  Not any more, here's the T168:

image.thumb.jpg.0b12f3a65c2ed12aecc8fa0e3af8bdb9.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d74734f68f7fc28e418df76fba6d3c62.jpg

Surely that hot air over Ireland will end up across England?

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5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

July 2006 was probably the best summer month I could’ve ever asked for. What made it so good was the low humidity, which gave it a Mediterranean type feel, and just beautifully unbroken blue skies for weeks on end! 

This setup is beginning to look distinctly similar. 

Twas an amazing summer my grandparents from Mauritius were over and even they were saying how hot it was!

 

On another note could Navgem be leading the way?Lol someone mentioned recently that it rightfully forecast the july1st record temp at Heathrow of a few years ago days in advance and stuck to it's guns when all the main models didn't want to know?

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Surely it's only winter we anticipate every frame of the ECM.  Not any more, here's the T168:

image.thumb.jpg.0b12f3a65c2ed12aecc8fa0e3af8bdb9.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d74734f68f7fc28e418df76fba6d3c62.jpg

Surely that hot air over Ireland will end up across England?

You lot always get the hottest air! Leave it with us for once😜

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Looking at things, it certainly looks like 30C is reachable from Tuesday onwards. Thursday on the ECM would surely deliver something close to 33/34C with temperatures still holding in the low thirties for some for a good few days on the bounce.

Not sure how the ECM is handling that Atlantic low, it looks like it is caught in two minds of sending it north east or becoming slow moving, the heat is really building like most other models do to our south over the following weekend with the 20C isotherm becoming widespread across France and Spain with the heat lapping into the south of the UK still. By day 9 it could potentially be six days in a row where 30C is reached. 

tempresult_kui0.gif

 

I don't think the England June record will go, but maybe other parts of the UK could see their all time high during this spell if we can cleanly advect the heat from our south.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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On 20/06/2018 at 19:35, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I kid you not, 1 July 2015, this belittled model actually called the 37c from day one! despite the main 3 deviating on the outcome up to the event. The NAVGEM stuck to its guns. 

 

9 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

Twas an amazing summer my grandparents from Mauritius were over and even they were saying how hot it was!

 

On another note could Navgem be leading the way?Lol someone mentioned recently that it rightfully forecast the july1st record temp at Heathrow of a few years ago days in advance and stuck to it's guns when all the main models didn't want to know?

;) that would be myself! 

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In fairness, NAVGEM always goes for extreme heat - it's bound to be correct every now and then, even though it's usually trash. A broken clock is correct twice a day and all that.

Edited by cheese
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Another day, another ECM, another upgrade!!! Im getting excited now :)  So reminds me of July 2006, I think a matching spell is incoming 🔥🔥☀️😍

ecm  2018.png

july 2006.png

survival-blowtorch.jpg

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Looks like the ECM ends on a very interim thundery breakdown:

image.thumb.jpg.cd22abcbf55a8da577d9ea82526e8a47.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.827dd8b81fdbf742de3dceff93896071.jpg

High pressure reload incoming after I think. Heat and storm fans happy alike, maybe.  ☀️⚡😎🙃

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, LoisE said:

Fair enough, but we've had a long, hard, cold winter.... I am going to sit in the sun with my factor 50 and have a few glasses of Viognier. YOLO 😍😍I was in Spain last June and it was considerably hotter. The locals in these Mediterranean lands treat the sun and heat with respect. "Mad dogs and English men...... " 

I'm currently in Tenerife and here in Adeje it's been warm & humid all week but cloudy one day, sunny the next. The locals have been saying it's been very strange weather for the last 6 weeks..... Rioja Blanco &€3 a bottle has been a pleasure though.... 

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9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks like the ECM ends on a very interim thundery breakdown:

image.thumb.jpg.cd22abcbf55a8da577d9ea82526e8a47.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.827dd8b81fdbf742de3dceff93896071.jpg

High pressure reload incoming after I think.

Yes it's a great run for the majority of the uk, becoming very warm / hot, especially further south and sunny day after day, a brief thundery very humid incursion towards the end of next week and becoming a bit cooler / fresher across the far n / nw for a time later next week but the azores high ridges in strongly again with a likely repeat of what's coming in the days ahead...:smile:

Edited by Frosty.
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Christ. This has been the best year of model watching ever and usually when we have heatwave synoptics they usually get watered down. But just like the significant freeze up this year, the upgrades are incoming again. Also my personal belief is the models maybe undercooking the ground temps for many locations, with the significant lack of rain and it will get worse from this day on. I think here in west yorkshire we have had rain fall on 3 days out of themonth amd may wasnt much different. Bonkers start to the summer!

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I've been keeping an eye on the GFS parallel, this is the FV3 model which beat the FIM to be eventual successor to the current GFS, and at T300 it's joining the party:

image.thumb.jpg.67ac6dd6af637d6243e4a678ed55ccfa.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e93e51c644c26c47eb762bb2c378574b.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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