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What a scorching set of 12z runs!!heatwave here she comes!!by this time next week we should be seeing temps in the late 20s early 30s!!excitement building now!!with high pressure in total control lack of rain is starting to be a concern!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a scorching set of 12z runs!!heatwave here she comes!!by this time next week we should be seeing temps in the late 20s early 30s!!excitement building now!!with high pressure in total control lack of rain is starting to be a concern!!

Some models are saying the HP will influence right through July with very little rain. August no different either. Still plenty of time for big subtle changes but If this happens it will be concerning for farmers and water companies. Better get your car washed before that hosepipe ban!

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14 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a scorching set of 12z runs!!heatwave here she comes!!by this time next week we should be seeing temps in the late 20s early 30s!!excitement building now!!with high pressure in total control lack of rain is starting to be a concern!!

Apart from brown grass and wilting carrots water isn’t a problem currently, river levels, aquifers etc are generally at or above 100% of the seasonal average, clearly that could change following another month of dry conditions!

Oh hello 12z gfs, aren’t you a beauty! Highs 20’s right into the start of July....

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Noting that the May and June GloSea5 output had quite a high probability of significantly above average temperatures, until they showed up in the reliable on the op runs, it was just that, a probabilistic statement.  But now that the initiation of the hot spell is nailed on, surely that probability for the seasonal outlook just increases - because the chance that it never gets started can now be discounted.  

The questions remaining from the model output that I will be interested in now are longevity, chance of plumes, and just how hot it will get and where.  Fascinating stuff.

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With the met office saying 30c for next week and another stunning set of charts this afternoon it looks like game set and match now for a hot spell

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.4c031e08cf4880a6a0abc39c57a17271.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.2cde33ab182a6384e1576036462f488c.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.c5ee3e0abd0e7f93599b4f5a9d478f9f.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.7250a9047f8d8ce72764a29bba9f063e.png

😍😎🌡

 

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

With the met office saying 30c for next week and another stunning set of charts this afternoon it looks like game set and match now for a hot spell

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.4c031e08cf4880a6a0abc39c57a17271.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.2cde33ab182a6384e1576036462f488c.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.c5ee3e0abd0e7f93599b4f5a9d478f9f.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.7250a9047f8d8ce72764a29bba9f063e.png

😍😎🌡

 

Ay, SS childhood build up to Wimbledon, well into FI but potentially hot and thundery for Federer stepping first up

gfs-0-288.png?12

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Posted (edited)

What a run from GEM certainly living up to its name this afternoon it ends with the heat building even more only question now is could we break the 1976 record

GEMOPUK00_228_2.thumb.png.21efe7656319e5193b555eb803f39675.pngGEMOPUK00_228_38.thumb.png.c3ff5a25e0dad9bf66c4f14b26b9c9f3.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited)

Some charts from later in the GFS run, just to illustrate possibilities, here at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.4eb401bed7d38fd2ac409258be9cd010.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0c3ce02f34e6f1e104cbf9f270680b96.jpg

Heat flooding in from the SE.

At T348, the thundery outbreak, sparks will fly if something like this happens:

image.thumb.jpg.1d80dac01d6321a6d008f63eed944a14.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b446c2e3c92d1df83f4d1a2ad923f740.jpg

But look at that heat to the south.

Edited by Mike Poole
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This is beyond stunning, all across the board as far up as the outer Hebrides seeing mid to high twenties! And with the World Cup on, this is seriously looking very 2006-Esque! 

To top it off, most models actually reload the heat further into the latter time frames! I think we could be seeing our first 30c of the year next week that’s for sure, how high will the temperature get after that will be the next question! If it ends like the 12z run however, parts of the south could see some serious storms, but perhaps a continuation of the heat, something that happened often during the 90’s. 

Exciting and very uplifting indeed.

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Overnight temps look awful... dipping no lower than 20C around Cumbria and parts of SE. This is for 03:00 next weds.    Good job I have four large fans.

3 am.png

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9 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Overnight temps look awful... dipping no lower than 20C around Cumbria and parts of SE. This is for 03:00 next weds.    Good job I have four large fans.

3 am.png

amazingly high minima for around Gtr Manchester surely a record breaker ..? air conditioning at home is a godsend and seems to make sense ....

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Posted (edited)

Well the weekend is now fully in the range of the arpege so we can get an idea of how the temperatures will fare.

arpegeuk-41-74-0.png?20-18   arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?20-19

So up to possibly 25C on Saturday and perhaps around 27C on Sunday with the warm extending into the whole of Ireland and Eastern Scotland. The north west still is plagued by fronts by this stage.

Moving on, it still looks good for temperatures to rise further during next week, possibly into the low thirties in places and I suspect even favoured parts of Scotland could get close to the 30C mark.

gfs-0-144.png?12   gfs-0-192.png?12   gfs-0-240.png?12

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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looks like as the UK flips into possible heatwave mode..here it flips into reverse..currently under heat warnings but from Monday on wards it turns much cooler and unsettled for the rest of the run.

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Next week is looking absolutely stunning pretty much across the board with temps widely in the high 20s to low 30s

1.thumb.png.8bbb2ce6fd652779aaf2fe0083129d4f.png2.thumb.png.eaf4a013aaa573a7876c09a520ae6b78.png3.thumb.png.f7bb6735a998f4c7e65715fe32f3919a.png4.thumb.png.d21b5ba28b2d8bd26cc843b39541e3f3.png5.thumb.png.0be6a44517acf1448296b7568e2f2020.png

😍

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Posted (edited)

Keeping up the great news..the GEFS 12z mean is superb if you love fine very warm...and for southern uk, Hot 🔥weather, it looks like a prolonged spell of heat for the south is on the way.☀️

Well done to those who have believed this would happen from days and days ago..it's going to happen!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Go NAVGEM 12z for Wednesday, 🔥🔥🔥:crazy:

image.thumb.jpg.2c82482a3300ec1729535d00ba20ee4f.jpg

And the heat has still to build. Hilarious preposterous model - always overblows heat waves by a good 10C!  Absolute nonsense!

Lol, I new it would do that!!! I posted earlier a flippant comment about it but actually think it would be egging 40c on next week!

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Has to be said the GFS 12z Ops run again is well within the pack and a ‘cold / breakdown/‘ outlier from the 28th. There really are some very warm solutions being tauted about.

That being said, looks like ECM is notably cooler with a sub 10c 850 pool over central England as late as Tuesday - compared with gfs this would be a cold outlier. It clear this run is going to build high pressure further north and not really allow overly warm advection from the south!

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48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Go NAVGEM 12z for Wednesday, 🔥🔥🔥:crazy:

image.thumb.jpg.2c82482a3300ec1729535d00ba20ee4f.jpg

And the heat has still to build. Hilarious preposterous model - always overblows heat waves by a good 10C!  Absolute nonsense!

I kid you not, 1 July 2015, this belittled model actually called the 37c from day one! despite the main 3 deviating on the outcome up to the event. The NAVGEM stuck to its guns. 

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FI and just a variation of the theme I know, but my location is the capital of north sea mist, this to me looks very misty?

ECM1-144.GIF?20-0

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44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Keeping up the great news..the GEFS 12z mean is superb if you love fine very warm...and for southern uk, Hot 🔥weather, it looks like a prolonged spell of heat for the south is on the way.☀️

Well done to those who have believed this would happen from days and days ago..it's going to happen!:D

Well, I was almost told off a good week ago for daring to say the then doom and gloom outlook can change fast. It did. Looks like the fine weather for next week is almost "set in stone" for once. 😂😂

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Hmm. ECM has taken the polar jet so far north that the ridge is not anything like as well positioned for particularly hot temperatures, though it would still be quite hot (high 20s) in the west.

This is made more pronounced than it could have been, though, by a shallow low dropping down to our SE, which is another development that differs to both GFS and UKMO

Still - it serves as a reminder that having a strong signal for anomalously high pressure across the UK in general still leaves room for a lot of different possible outcomes in terms of what direction the wind is blowing, and how strongly, with that strongly influencing the temperatures we see.

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57 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Go NAVGEM 12z for Wednesday, 🔥🔥🔥:crazy:

image.thumb.jpg.2c82482a3300ec1729535d00ba20ee4f.jpg

And the heat has still to build. Hilarious preposterous model - always overblows heat waves by a good 10C!  Absolute nonsense!

Imagine if this actually came off, obviously it's very unlikely but if by the fraction of a chance it did that would be insane. Especially for late June

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ECM still perfectly good tonight, though nowhere near as good as the 00z - a low across se Europe is there that wasn’t on the 00z....so quite a different run in that regard. Heatwave still good to go!

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ECM 12z 850s not as high as the 00z run . Which is better for everyone , as it's more bearable .  

IMG_2373.PNG

IMG_2374.PNG

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