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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Well another great week coming up, another very warm BH Monday too!...a continental pattern with sunshine, high temps and then thunderstorms breaking out. Further ahead tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the summery weather extending well into early June..long may it continue, the longer the atlantic stays benign the better our summer prospects will become!👍😎🌡️

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Oh how I love that jet so high. Stay right there baby. For the next 3 months 😁

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Just out of interest. What sort of temperatures would we have achieved today with the same setup in Mid July/early August? 

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Synoptically there is a big difference between achieving 30C and 32C - 35C. The all time May record is 32.8C so it shows just how rare it is.

A southerly would have been slightly warmer, but temps over France were not much higher than here, so the difference may not have been as much as you think.

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12 minutes ago, matty007 said:

On the contrary, 30c has occurred a few times in Late May. The sun is very strong and the atmosphere warms very quickly. 

Don’t get me wrong, this is lovely weather and a welcome change to the usual dross this time of year. But I like it as warm as possible, I like extremes, so that N’rly was a real pain to me. You could feel the sun was very very powerful today and could feel the real warmth behind the northerly wind. 

If we had a southerly gentle wind today it would have definitely been bordering on 30c. The N’rly dimmed the heat by at least 5c

Synoptically there is a big difference between achieving 30C and 32C - 35C. The all time May record is 32.8C so it shows just how rare it is.

 A southerly would have been slightly warmer, but temps over France were not much higher than here, so the difference may not have been as much as you think.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

Synoptically there is a big difference between achieving 30C and 32C - 35C. The all time May record is 32.8C so it shows just how rare it is.

 A southerly would have been slightly warmer, but temps over France were not much higher than here, so the difference may not have been as much as you think.

Okay, thanks Dazzle. 

That N’rly seemed to hugely bring the warmth down to me today. But suppose a S’rly wouldn’t make the big difference I thought. 

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I was born in 92 and this has to be the best May I can ever remember. It’s been fantastic and gives me huge hopes for the upcoming Summer. 

Said it before, I truly believe this will be a fantastic Summer. Everything seems to be pointing to it. The jet is way north and the warmth keeps reloading. 

A very warm and settled Summer would be bliss. 

 

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25 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I was born in 92 and this has to be the best May I can ever remember. It’s been fantastic and gives me huge hopes for the upcoming Summer. 

Said it before, I truly believe this will be a fantastic Summer. Everything seems to be pointing to it. The jet is way north and the warmth keeps reloading. 

A very warm and settled Summer would be bliss. 

 

 Agree. Things look continental into June at least

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Posted (edited)

For me it's all about the jet stream, not just the position of it, but the strength of it at this time of year, it can blow as hard as it likes there! Here GFS forecast at T180:

gfs-5-180.png?18

And the business end of the pub run is looking sensational, here through to T192:

tempresult_kbi8.gif

Lets go farther than that T222 😋

gfs-0-222.png?18

☀️

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, matty007 said:

Just out of interest. What sort of temperatures would we have achieved today with the same setup in Mid July/early August? 

I'm guessing 31/32C

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The GFS 18z is quite a toasty op with everyday seeing at least 25C somewhere in the UK right up to almost the end.    

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GEFS 18z ensemble mean at T264, 1025 high!  And in a decent place too,  Go summer '18!

gens-21-1-264.png?18

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Well....the high pressure train just keeps rolling on. ECM keeping things mainly settled, and on the warm side again. This is turning out to be quite an exceptional spell of weather.

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Brilliant ECM again this morning even out to D10 we have no real sign of the Atlantic breaking through

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.6676edcfeb9fcd08557e9afdfa912205.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.fabf130fa9fbfe967f4f57acddce8a37.png

👍🌡️

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ECM is really wonderful this morning,warm with temps in the low to mid 20s widely for the next 10 days i would guess.

Really a cracking first week in June on the back of a lovely May is looking likely.

It cant go on that much longer, surely.

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The location of the high for eastern areas brings very dull weather in the first chart but extremely sunny in the last chart

3498EBA8-B49A-42DE-BE20-24245F5CB20A.jpeg

808E4674-0638-45C5-ACE0-196F630FD892.jpeg

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

What a fantastic week of weather up in the Northwest last week. Glad I made the visit to old haunts. The countryside looked stunning. Back in Sussex for a week and super warm down here and smells continental ( if you know what I mean ). Looks like the great early summer weather to continue looking at the latest models, especially in the North and West. I would imagine a lot of you seasoned weather watchers are rating 2018 very highly, you have had everything, blizzards, record March cold, heat and prolonged sunshine in May for many and a few impressive thunderstorms thrown in for good measure. Vintage stuff. Wonder if the North Atlantic has been ever so dormant ? Charts seem to show endless blocking so far this year. One more week in lovely Blighty then off to Benidorm for week of cheap beer and tapas! Enjoy the great weather.

C

As a Northwesterner I couldn’t agree more.

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Posted (edited)

I started watching the models some time in 2011, and as this spring draws to a close, it goes down as the best ever season model watching bar none💎. It is absolutely astonishing that a transitional season can trump every single winter and summer since 2011 but it has!!  I guess that's because it hasn't really been spring at all, we haven't had one, it's been half (proper) winter, half summer. 🙃

GEM 0z rolls the fun on into summer proper, another stellar run:

tempresult_vhq6.gif

GFS having 'issues' this morning, no sign of the 0z on Meteociel and the 6z is stuck at T132:

gfs-0-132.png?6

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS having 'issues' this morning, no sign of the 0z on Meteociel and the 6z is stuck at T132:

 

meteociel have the following note for GFS

NOAA servers have been having connectivity problems since last night. Models can be late

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Absolutely lovely Ecm 00z ensemble mean longevity wise, no end in sight to the very blocked summery conditions!😍👍😎☀️🌡️

ECMAVGEU00_0_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_24_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_48_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_48_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I started watching the models some time in 2011, and as this spring draws to a close, it goes down as the best ever season model watching bar none💎. It is absolutely astonishing that a transitional season can trump every single winter and summer since 2011 but it has!!  

Completely agree. In 2013 Mike July was unbelievable model watching too with high pressure hitting bullseye over the U.K for weeks

Edited by Matthew.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Completely agree. In 2013 Mike July was unbelievable model watching too with high pressure hitting bullseye over the U.K for weeks

Yes, July 2013 was a cracker for sure, and you can also make the case for January 2013 from a snow point of view, people further north would include March 2013.  But they are just single months, as a season this spring has been exceptional in so many ways.

GFS 6z back on track now. It's all pointing the same way this morning.

gfs-0-276.png?6

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted (edited)

Oh dear!

image.thumb.jpg.b403bb28d961c8d63ceaa047c3936440.jpg

Who's turned the lights off? 👽

Edited by Mike Poole
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