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2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

For those that don't understand some posts like mine this morning, here's the ECM 00z derived forecast for my location:
2016256447_ECMderivedforecast25thmay00z.thumb.png.4e710b2d5def9036f5f5f965d7a8fb1a.png
Those are 1pm temps so maxima could be a degree or two higher.. but even so, it would be very disappointing if something that looked very good ended up not being any better than average really.

Hopefully it was a bit of a rouge run.. but even the Met Office's own forecast isn't much better for me, slightly warmer than average, a fair bit of cloud.

Of course the change on the ECM 00z probably makes less of a difference further north/east, but it makes all the difference down here.

I was meaning the general set-up and not specific locations..of course there will always be regional variations but overall, taking a blend of the output today it's looking summery for many areas..the models show that, as does the met office!🙂

 

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A "Millhouse" run in the latter stages of the 12z gfs😁

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.e73e786090e235301fa1b44cbda0d91a.pnggfs-0-312.thumb.png.364e4be227277f3857246b223c8def42.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ukmo actually looks half decent tonight, warm air sticking around, and if that low can anchor out to the SW, it could continue to support the feed of air off the continent. When was the last time we had anything off the Atlantic?!

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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ukmo actually looks half decent tonight, warm air sticking around, and if that low can anchor out to the SW, it could continue to support the feed of air off the continent. When was the last time we had anything off the Atlantic?!

my favourite summer setup is low pressure to the NW, high to the SE, with England and wales warm and sunny with 25C, and wet/windy for far W/NW, just dosen't seem to happen anymore, like this, if it lasts a few days

archives-2013-8-21-0-0.png

not these easterlies, tend to be cloudy/showery here

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my favourite summer setup is low pressure to the NW, high to the SE, with England and wales warm and sunny with 25C, and wet/windy for far W/NW, just dosen't seem to happen anymore

not these easterlies, tend to be cloudy/showery here

Yes mine too. The first two thirds of this May were good for that though

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Just now, Frosty. said:

I was meaning the general set-up and not specific locations..of course there will always be regional variations but overall, taking a blend of the output today it's looking summery for many areas..the models show that, as does the met office!🙂

 

Yes it was a bit of an IMBY post as I wasn't a very happy bunny this morning. It would be nice if this area could join in with warmth and storms, we will see.. shows it might not be nationwide though.

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Easterlies tend to drag in a lot of low cloud.....especially with quit a strong flow as we’ve had this week. It’s blown a long way inland, and taken a while to shift. It’s going to be back again his weekend, let’s see how quickly it buggers off!

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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ukmo actually looks half decent tonight, warm air sticking around, and if that low can anchor out to the SW, it could continue to support the feed of air off the continent. When was the last time we had anything off the Atlantic?!

Did you look at GFS it has 12C isotherm from this Saturday to following Saturday across E/SE areas.. based on that high 20s are possible in prone areas shows a very warm week, through much of next week. 

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15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Easterlies tend to drag in a lot of low cloud.....especially with quit a strong flow as we’ve had this week. It’s blown a long way inland, and taken a while to shift. It’s going to be back again his weekend, let’s see how quickly it buggers off!

Not quick enough. Guaranteed you watch

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57 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

For those that don't understand some posts like mine this morning, here's the ECM 00z derived forecast for my location:
2016256447_ECMderivedforecast25thmay00z.thumb.png.4e710b2d5def9036f5f5f965d7a8fb1a.png
Those are 1pm temps so maxima could be a degree or two higher.. but even so, it would be very disappointing if something that looked very good ended up not being much better than average really.

Hopefully it was a bit of a rouge run.. but even the Met Office's own forecast isn't much better for me, slightly warmer than average, a fair bit of cloud.

Of course the change on the ECM 00z probably makes less of a difference further north/east, but it makes all the difference down here.

yr.no's forecast for tomorrow here shows 17C and rain, yet every other forecast I've seen shows afternoon sunshine and highs of 21-22C.

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52 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my favourite summer setup is low pressure to the NW, high to the SE, with England and wales warm and sunny with 25C, and wet/windy for far W/NW, just dosen't seem to happen anymore, like this, if it lasts a few days

archives-2013-8-21-0-0.png

not these easterlies, tend to be cloudy/showery here

Hopefully your favourite set up never happens then.

 

 

:ninja:

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Hmmm, euros nowhere near as good as GFS this evening.

ECM making much more of the trough, hopefully GFS can pull it off again, it did trump the euros recently..

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I'm liking the ECM 12z, let's pick up the story at T144:

ECM1-144.GIF?25-0

The low west of Ireland, with the absence of any driving from the jet, sucks up higher pressure over the UK at T168:

ECM1-168.GIF?25-0

The low does make it over Northern parts at T216 but is weakened:

ECM1-216.GIF?25-0

Leaves this for the UK at T240, propelled by the deeper low out in the Atlantic:

ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

Good start to June and summer 😋😺👽 (still not got the hang of this emoji business!).

Edit seen post above, I guess it depends on what timescale you are looking at, I'm more interested in what might (or might not happen) after any unsettled blip. The Met Office output suggested improving weather later, this looks reflected in this ECM run.

Edited by Mike Poole
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm, euros nowhere near as good as GFS this evening.

ECM making much more of the trough, hopefully GFS can pull it off again, it did trump the euros recently..

Yes there's an unwelcome blob of green snot on the Ecm 12z which wasn't there on the 00z but that shouldn't take away from the first 5 days of the run which look generally very warm with sunshine but also increasing thunderstorm potential..plus, the atlantic looks benign so the overall pattern stays blocked with potential for high pressure to take control again once the fly in the ointment shallow trough pushes away to the NE...it may not even be there on the next run!:D 

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm, euros nowhere near as good as GFS this evening.

ECM making much more of the trough, hopefully GFS can pull it off again, it did trump the euros recently..

The GFS's output graph has been more erratic than the rhythm line on an EKG...

 

After the patient has been scared out of their wits.

Edited by Ice Man 85

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Ukmo is a slight improvement compared to the 00z run which is good as it might be coming round the gfs idea of higher pressuee and more settled hot weather!!ecm not as good but i think it could backtrack by tomorrow morning and agree with gfs!!

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44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes there's an unwelcome blob of green snot on the Ecm 12z which wasn't there on the 00z but that shouldn't take away from the first 5 days of the run which look generally very warm with sunshine but also increasing thunderstorm potential..plus, the atlantic looks benign so the overall pattern stays blocked with potential for high pressure to take control again once the fly in the ointment shallow trough pushes away to the NE...it may not even be there on the next run!:D 

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

Green snot not so obvious on the charts that I use, but safe to say it's well into the North Sea by T240, phew!

ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

I wonder if it will mix with that blue algae that knocker was on about on the short range discussion.  

Re the green snot, I've scrolled through the entire emoji catalogue and I can't find one of a dripping nose!  Apart from this sneezy  one but it's blue 🤧.

ECM ensemble means out, and it's such wide open territory at T192 (although all in context of UK ridge) that there's no point looking at later charts.

EDM1-192.GIF?25-0

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5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

 It all looks a bit of a mess with the main jet well north, leaving isolated lows and high pressures to jostle for position.  Likely weather warm, some sun, humid, and potential for thunderstorms which may be slow moving, and torrential downpours.  Should give us weather lovers something to talk about!

Mike summed it up perfectly earlier, well before the messy Ecm 12z run...it's still summery weather with warm / very warm temperatures for the most part and plenty of sunshine and good for thunder storm enthusiasts too!🙂🌩️🌡️ 

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It'd take a miracle to get a storm here. If it happens, I'll be re-enacting the latest moneysupermarket advert; FINALLY ITS HAPPENED TO ME! :yahoo:

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my favourite summer setup is low pressure to the NW, high to the SE, with England and wales warm and sunny with 25C, and wet/windy for far W/NW, just dosen't seem to happen anymore, like this, if it lasts a few days

archives-2013-8-21-0-0.png

not these easterlies, tend to be cloudy/showery here

I think the set up that has been recently is perfect, the default is west based based with the west cloudy and cool and further east warm and sunny.....refreshing change 😊

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2 hours ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is a slight improvement compared to the 00z run which is good as it might be coming round the gfs idea of higher pressuee and more settled hot weather!!ecm not as good but i think it could backtrack by tomorrow morning and agree with gfs!!

Given the 18z GFS output - that appears rather shaky, shaky.

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18 minutes ago, draztik said:

Given the 18z GFS output - that appears rather shaky, shaky.

Shades of June 2012 from tonights 18z output. 

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29 minutes ago, draztik said:

Shades of June 2012 from tonights 18z output. 

Yes the dreaded retrogressive signal and southerly troughs seems to be back on the menu longer term, aided by some horrid looking blocking at high latitudes..

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Ut oh, model heaven to hell in less than 12hours!! Could be another year until summer returns lol lol 

seriously I’m sure this deterioration is only temporary!

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