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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, like the earlier operational shows increasingly very warm and humid continental air wafting into the south of the uk during the BH weekend and lasting for several days bringing an increasing risk of thunderstorms but with some lovely hot sunshine too..speaking of thunderstorms, it looks like some are going to head across from calais within the next few hours towards parts of the SE..kent looks in the firing line tonight and a risk of further storms across some parts of the s and w during the next few days too..and then more to come from late sunday and continuing for much of next week but with good spells of sunshine and very summery temperatures for most of the uk.?️☀️?️⛱️

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z shows classic summery weather as we import very warm / humid continental air across the uk from later this weekend and most of next week with sunny periods and an increasing risk of thunderstorms, at least across the south and in any decent sunshine with uppers like these i would expect temperatures into the mid / high 20's celsius across southern uk day after day, maybe into the low 30's c for a time in parts of the S / SE..what an incredible late spring this is turning into!?️⛱️  

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not for me...im heading back to the UK for 10 days tomorrow and was hoping to get a break from the heat i have here in Alberta.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Is it me or does the band of rain tomorrow night looks to be slightly further North with the 18z?

 

12z

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18z

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
24 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is it me or does the band of rain tomorrow night looks to be slightly further North with the 18z?

 

12z

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 18z

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Not really. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

And typical. No sooner do I come off the fence with thinking 'no retrogression', that the EC clusters come up with their first convincing attempt to model it. Here's T264. 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018052312_264.

Atlantic is a complete mess though so by no means certain a pattern change would bring below average conditions anyhow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

UKMO is a bit crazy this morning - once the really warm air arrives on Sunday (12-14c 850s), it is now shown across a good chunk of England & Wales out to 144 hours - next Wednesday!  Staying very warm and thundery out to the middle of next week then!

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GFS really pulling back on the warm temps over the weekend now, only really the south east sees a 25/26c and that will be dependant on sunshine and residual clag. Also maybe not the best Bh weekend for outdoor activities as showers and TS give some very high rainfall totals, 60-100mm in some parts of the central south. Further north in northern England and Scotland cooler and drier and probably sunnier. 

Certainly not the stunning weekend it was looking three or four days ago.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really pulling back on the warm temps over the weekend now, only really the south east sees a 25/26c and that will be dependant on sunshine and residual clag. Also maybe not the best Bh weekend for outdoor activities as showers and TS give some very high rainfall totals, 60-100mm in some parts of the central south. Further north in northern England and Scotland cooler and drier and probably sunnier. 

Certainly not the stunning weekend it was looking three or four days ago.

Flippin heck, I'll cancel all my outdoor plans then!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really pulling back on the warm temps over the weekend now, only really the south east sees a 25/26c and that will be dependant on sunshine and residual clag. Also maybe not the best Bh weekend for outdoor activities as showers and TS give some very high rainfall totals, 60-100mm in some parts of the central south. Further north in northern England and Scotland cooler and drier and probably sunnier. 

Certainly not the stunning weekend it was looking three or four days ago.

Don't worry about that...GFS temps are always wrong. It'll be a couple of degrees higher than that, I'm fairly certain there. TV forecasts saying the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really pulling back on the warm temps over the weekend now, only really the south east sees a 25/26c and that will be dependant on sunshine and residual clag. Also maybe not the best Bh weekend for outdoor activities as showers and TS give some very high rainfall totals, 60-100mm in some parts of the central south. Further north in northern England and Scotland cooler and drier and probably sunnier. 

Certainly not the stunning weekend it was looking three or four days ago.

You'd think we were heading for a cold, wet weekend reading your post- I see very little change from a few days ago- GFS is still suggesting 25C in NW England on a number of days. It was never going to be stunning wall to wall sunshine in this setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Flippin heck, I'll cancel all my outdoor plans then!

Me too, temps into the low to mid 20's celsius just isn't good enough in late May is it!!:whistling:...the Gfs 00z shows a pretty summery outlook from what I can see.

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Just now, mb018538 said:

Don't worry about that...GFS temps are always wrong. It'll be a couple of degrees higher than that, I'm fairly certain there. TV forecasts saying the same.

Look at the temperature distribution, this isn’t really about gfs or ecms know issue of under cooking temps this is there is just likely to be a lot of cloud a rain about at times. If residual TS debris isn’t too extensive then yes a few places might get 27/28c however they will be an exception I suspect.

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

You'd think we were heading for a cold, wet weekend reading your post- I see very little change from a few days ago- GFS is still suggesting 25C in NW England on a number of days. It was never going to be stunning wall to wall sunshine in this setup.

Not at all, all I’m saying is that three days ago expectation was 26-31c over a widespread area and mostly sunny skies, now 25-26 over a smaller area with a lot more cloud could be disappointing (clearly not if you get a max of 25/26) especially for those under the daytime cloud and rain which will massively limit temps. 

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

You'd think we were heading for a cold, wet weekend reading your post- I see very little change from a few days ago- GFS is still suggesting 25C in NW England on a number of days. It was never going to be stunning wall to wall sunshine in this setup.

Not at all, all I’m saying is that three days ago expectation was 26-31c over a widespread area and mostly sunny skies, now 25-26 over a smaller area with a lot more cloud could be disappointing (clearly not if you get a max of 25/26) especially for those under the daytime cloud and rain which will massively limit temps. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not at all, all I’m saying is that three days ago expectation was 26-31c over a widespread area and mostly sunny skies, now 25-26 over a smaller area with a lot more cloud could be disappointing (clearly not if you get a max of 25/26) especially for those under the daytime cloud and rain which will massively limit temps. 

31c was never really an expectation, more a very outside bet - a couple of very warm ensemble members showed 15/16c 850s moving in, but the bulk were grouped in the 10-12c range, which is what we have settled on. Even now the models are all disagreeing on the flow/air mass in the next 4/5 days, and this will be crucial to what we end up with. Still time for change yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not at all, all I’m saying is that three days ago expectation was 26-31c over a widespread area and mostly sunny skies, now 25-26 over a smaller area with a lot more cloud could be disappointing (clearly not if you get a max of 25/26) especially for those under the daytime cloud and rain which will massively limit temps. 

The models weren’t indicating wall to wall sunshine, even a few days ago. Those runs showing temps of 32c were never realistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Tomorrows upper air temp profile (500mb level ) from the latest UKMO chart shows the  deepest cold upper air location. Any frontal activity should align along its axis from SW to NE. So I think based on this chart the rain zone looks to be from Humber towards SW Wales. The northern extent will be the forecasters problem at this stage . Maybe as far as South Lancashire and South Yorkshire. Further NW looks best again for dryness and sunshine. SE England maybe in for a better warmer day tomorrow. Regarding any further thundery troughs into the outlook period would be hard to locate at this stage  but UKMO met fax usually not far off the mark with -in 48 hour forecast period. 26 C to 27C in some favoured locations later this weekend still very much on the cards as well.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

GFS really pulling back on the warm temps over the weekend now, only really the south east sees a 25/26c and that will be dependant on sunshine and residual clag. Also maybe not the best Bh weekend for outdoor activities as showers and TS give some very high rainfall totals, 60-100mm in some parts of the central south. Further north in northern England and Scotland cooler and drier and probably sunnier. 

Certainly not the stunning weekend it was looking three or four days ago.

Seems like you're advertising a near-perfect BH weekend, AlderC: plenty warm enough for outdoor pursuits, some warm/hot sunshine and ample scope for some static storm chasing! Now what could possibly go wrong with that?:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Cloudy and 11c currently here in Newbury, forecasted maximum temperature, 22c.   So, in terms of the BH weekend, if clag remains all day (perhaps unlikely) in a few specific locations, it WILL be pretty grim all things considered, whilst others lap up the heat!  That's the UK for you though. A difficult forecast when modelling outputs and forecasters' opinions against the ACTUAL reality differ at such short-ranges. Time will tell but here's hoping, most will see decent weather.

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15 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Cloudy and 11c currently here in Newbury, forecasted maximum temperature, 22c.   So, in terms of the BH weekend, if clag remains all day (perhaps unlikely) in a few specific locations, it WILL be pretty grim all things considered, whilst others lap up the heat!  That's the UK for you though. A difficult forecast when modelling outputs and forecasters' opinions against the ACTUAL reality differ at such short-ranges. Time will tell but here's hoping, most will see decent weather.

Today is the perfect example of what I was talking about earlier, but got shot for saying. On Monday is was forecast to be 22-25C widely across E+W today, when in reality it is just another poor May day. GFS 06Z doesn't make tomorrow a whole load better apart from the extreme SE and NW. It does however give a slightly better Sunday/Monday more generally across the south than some of the previous runs though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Today is the perfect example of what I was talking about earlier, but got shot for saying. On Monday is was forecast to be 22-25C widely across E+W today, when in reality it is just another poor May day. GFS 06Z doesn't make tomorrow a whole load better apart from the extreme SE and NW. It does however give a slightly better Sunday/Monday more generally across the south than some of the previous runs though.

Another poor May day? For the 2007 bank holiday temperatures around here were struggling to above 8C on the Monday with non stop heavy rain. Its a million miles better then that!

And the output looks the same for the weekend as what it did 3 or 4 days ago. For Bournemouth the 06z shows:

Friday - Max 20C - small chance of a shower
Saturday - Max 25C - Storms from the continent passing through early morning, returning after dark
Sunday - Max 24C - Storms clearing during the morning
Monday - Max 25C - Hit and miss storms coming from the east after midday
Tuesday - Max 22C - Overnight storms clear, threat again in the evening
Wednesday - Max 24C - Sunny
Thursday - Max 24C - Showers breaking out in the afternoon
Friday - May 19C - Small chance of a shower

So where is the downgrade?, if you are expecting more for the month of May you are never going to be happy. Yes there will be storms but a lot of sunshine too but I think you are taking far too much of a negative slant on things.

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Another poor May day? For the 2007 bank holiday temperatures around here were struggling to above 8C on the Monday with non stop heavy rain. Its a million miles better then that!

And the output looks the same for the weekend as what it did 3 or 4 days ago. For Bournemouth the 06z shows:

Friday - Max 20C - small chance of a shower
Saturday - Max 25C - Storms from the continent passing through early morning, returning after dark
Sunday - Max 24C - Storms clearing during the morning
Monday - Max 25C - Hit and miss storms coming from the east after midday
Tuesday - Max 22C - Overnight storms clear, threat again in the evening
Wednesday - Max 24C - Sunny
Thursday - Max 24C - Showers breaking out in the afternoon
Friday - May 19C - Small chance of a shower

So where is the downgrade?, if you are expecting more for the month of May you are never going to be happy. Yes there will be storms but a lot of sunshine too but I think you are taking far too much of a negative slant on things.

 

I think you are being quite liberal with those maxes i.e. picking out one gridpoint with most others around it a couple of C lower. I'm sorry but in these parts while it absolutely could be worse, and yes not unusual in late May, 14C (3-4C below average), heavily overcast and with occasional rain is poor.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Get a grip some of you. One of the best Mays in recent years and some people are moaning.

14c may be below the long term average but I challenge you to find a May where at least a day or two hasn’t seen such a temperature. Even some historically warm months have below average days.

The number of days this month where the temperature has been above average is pretty remarkable.

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