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Posted (edited)

The high being parked over Scandi kind of concerns me.. means a slack easterly drift and low cloud/mist/fog for eastern parts, at least in the morning. Probably not warm either.

Great for areas further south and west though.

Edited by cheese

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6 minutes ago, cheese said:

The high being parked over Scandi kind of concerns me.. means a slack easterly drift and low cloud/mist/fog for eastern parts, at least in the morning. Probably not warm either.

Great for areas further south and west though.

agree with this, tomorrow here is looking horrible, 9 degrees, sea mist, wonder how long it will take to burn off? have known it last until 4pm many times here

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As i type i can see the low cloud loitering out to the east making slow advances inland. That will pretty much be the story of the next 7-10 days. West is best if its high temps your after. And hopefully it lasts through the first week of June when im in Somerset. 

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Just now, Milhouse said:

As i type i can see the low cloud loitering out to the east making slow advances inland. That will pretty much be the story of the next 7-10 days. West is best if its high temps your after. And hopefully it lasts through the first week of June when im in Somerset. 

not nice, NW Scotland could have 10 days unbroken sunshine, typical setup for May, 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not nice, NW Scotland could have 10 days unbroken sunshine, typical setup for May, 

They deserve it, most of the year it's cool, wet and windy up there!...anyway, the general pattern for the rest of May and into June is very blocked / pleasant with high pressure to the NE, inland areas should see plenty of warm / very warm sunshine with any mist / low cloud that does roll inland soon burning back to the north sea coast as the very strong late May sun gets to work on it!..further south it looks like becoming very warm or hot with temperatures into the 80's F and further scattered thunderstorms.🌞🌩️🌡️

Edited by Frosty.
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

More very good news, the GEFS 6z mean is very summery throughout with no sign of cool atlantic dross returning this month..or indeed early in June either!🙂 

The Atlantic at this time of the year, not necessarily 'dross'

the worst is E'lys with north sea mist, can feel like winter under those conditions here

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Perhaps looking like a number of factors will keep a lid on temps going beyond 30c, but you never know! High 20s certainly. Let’s see what the ecm throws at us later on.

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25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with this, tomorrow here is looking horrible, 9 degrees, sea mist, wonder how long it will take to burn off? have known it last until 4pm many times here

I think you're being overly negative- can't see much evidence of this. BBC going for 21C for your location if I'm not mistaken.

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think you're being overly negative- can't see much evidence of this. BBC going for 21C for your location if I'm not mistaken.

have known it to clear 4pm or later, but the average time for it to clear is around 1pm, so mornings can feel like winter, may be better later who knows

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the models look lovely and warm but . its sunny and blue skies here in leeds! but cold!! yes no rain and very dry but would be great to have sunny hot days. see once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

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Posted (edited)

For what it's worth the Met Office were originally going for 19C here today but it only reached 15C.. then again, Stafford is further away from the North Sea so easterlies will have less impact there.

Edited by cheese

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, sausage said:

once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

They haven't backtracked at all, tomorrow's high in leeds is expected to be 20/21c, 23c on thursday, 16c on friday with a risk of thundery rain and then becoming settled with temps into the low 20's c before soaring into the mid 20's celsius during next week!..the models look great..for most if not all of the uk!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, sausage said:

the models look lovely and warm but . its sunny and blue skies here in leeds! but cold!! yes no rain and very dry but would be great to have sunny hot days. see once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

Yes i think west of the pennines  is best at the moment, sheltered from the east winds.

GFS is an absolute corker this evening with an extended period of well above average temps...and some storms!

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

They haven't backtracked at all, tomorrow's high in leeds is expected to be 20/21c, 23c on thursday, 16c on friday with a risk of thundery rain and then settled with temps soaring well into the mid 20's celsius!:)

What forecast shows that? Neither the BBC or Met Office show temps in Leeds reaching 20C until the weekend. And tomorrow's Met Office forecast doesn't show the cloud burning away until 1pm tomorrow.

As for things backtracking - for here they have, because a week of warm sunshine has turned into a week of dull misty mornings (maybe early afternoons) and unremarkable temperatures even for the time year. This month as a whole has been great but this week is turning out rather disappointing compared to what we were expecting just a couple of days ago. But that's the weather for you.

Edited by cheese
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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

What forecast shows that? Neither the BBC or Met Office show temps in Leeds reaching 20C until the weekend. And tomorrow's Met Office forecast doesn't show the cloud burning away until 1pm tomorrow.

As for things backtracking - for here they have, because a week of warm sunshine has turned into a week of dull misty mornings (maybe early afternoons) and unremarkable temperatures even for the time year. This month as a whole has been great but this week is turning out rather disappointing compared to what we were expecting just a couple of days ago. But that's the weather for you.

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

Yes, of course - I don't mean to begrudge anyone else for enjoying their warm, sunny weather. I just think it's important to remember that a lot of places won't be sharing that and it can be very frustrating when you're the one stuck under a layer of crud. 

And for what it's worth, it's been sunny most of the day here - just disappointingly cool. Enough moaning from me though (these posts should be on the moan/ramps thread - apologies).

Edited by cheese

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

Yes good setup for you, maybe as good as NW Scotland, here no high ground to stop the mist

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Liking the GEM 12z tonight, here's the whole run, warm, largely settled, possibility of thundery outbreaks in the south at times.  

tempresult_lcw1.gif

And best of all finishes poised for more continental weather with the heat drawing close, T850s:

gem-1-240.png?12

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10 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, of course - I don't mean to begrudge anyone else for enjoying their warm, sunny weather. I just think it's important to remember that a lot of places won't be sharing that and it can be very frustrating when you're the one stuck under a layer of crud. 

And for what it's worth, it's been sunny most of the day here - just disappointingly cool. Enough moaning from me though (these posts should be on the moan/ramps thread - apologies).

Looking at the output though we should all have some very warm humid conditions by Sunday. Your situation reminds me of how ours often is in a northwesterly- it can be sunny but often very cool feeling.

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Well,it makes a change...us in the west have endured 2 consecutive misty bank holidays with temperatures barely getting into double figures,  where the rest of the uk have been enjoying wall to wall sunshine and temperatures well into the 20's. I for 1 am really looking foreward to a cracking weekend with a real storm threat as we head back to work.

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GFS 12z is looking rather toasty with temps around 23/24C right into June! It all a long way off yet so plenty of time for subtle changes. I feel a refreshing break coming on from all this HP domination with some cool and wet days before HP moves back in from the West.

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z is a peach of a run if it's summery weather you're after, plenty of sunshine, increasingly very warm nationwide and becoming more humid across the south with an ongoing risk of homegrown thunderstorms breaking out, especially for the south where additionally some would be imported from France but a lot of dry and sunny weather too..turning cooler across the far north by the end of the run but staying very warm for the majority..some great weather for the rest of may!🌞:) 

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168_mslp850.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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Yes an excellent ECM tonight with warm weather a plenty and high pressure firmly in charge out to day 10.

Friday looks a bit meh though.

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ECM ensemble mean 12z, here T144, reinforcing what we think we know about the bank holiday.  

EDM1-144.GIF?22-0

Move on to T240 and this is not suggesting that many members are going for the retrogression to Greenland option.

EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

And there is low uncertainty in the region where the higher pressure is - this is usually the case, but it reinforces the notion that at the moment UK weather is settled and largely coming from the continent, jet stream not in play.

EEM1-240.GIF

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