Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

The high being parked over Scandi kind of concerns me.. means a slack easterly drift and low cloud/mist/fog for eastern parts, at least in the morning. Probably not warm either.

Great for areas further south and west though.

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, cheese said:

The high being parked over Scandi kind of concerns me.. means a slack easterly drift and low cloud/mist/fog for eastern parts, at least in the morning. Probably not warm either.

Great for areas further south and west though.

agree with this, tomorrow here is looking horrible, 9 degrees, sea mist, wonder how long it will take to burn off? have known it last until 4pm many times here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As i type i can see the low cloud loitering out to the east making slow advances inland. That will pretty much be the story of the next 7-10 days. West is best if its high temps your after. And hopefully it lasts through the first week of June when im in Somerset. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Milhouse said:

As i type i can see the low cloud loitering out to the east making slow advances inland. That will pretty much be the story of the next 7-10 days. West is best if its high temps your after. And hopefully it lasts through the first week of June when im in Somerset. 

not nice, NW Scotland could have 10 days unbroken sunshine, typical setup for May, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not nice, NW Scotland could have 10 days unbroken sunshine, typical setup for May, 

They deserve it, most of the year it's cool, wet and windy up there!...anyway, the general pattern for the rest of May and into June is very blocked / pleasant with high pressure to the NE, inland areas should see plenty of warm / very warm sunshine with any mist / low cloud that does roll inland soon burning back to the north sea coast as the very strong late May sun gets to work on it!..further south it looks like becoming very warm or hot with temperatures into the 80's F and further scattered thunderstorms.🌞🌩️🌡️

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

More very good news, the GEFS 6z mean is very summery throughout with no sign of cool atlantic dross returning this month..or indeed early in June either!🙂 

The Atlantic at this time of the year, not necessarily 'dross'

the worst is E'lys with north sea mist, can feel like winter under those conditions here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps looking like a number of factors will keep a lid on temps going beyond 30c, but you never know! High 20s certainly. Let’s see what the ecm throws at us later on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with this, tomorrow here is looking horrible, 9 degrees, sea mist, wonder how long it will take to burn off? have known it last until 4pm many times here

I think you're being overly negative- can't see much evidence of this. BBC going for 21C for your location if I'm not mistaken.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think you're being overly negative- can't see much evidence of this. BBC going for 21C for your location if I'm not mistaken.

have known it to clear 4pm or later, but the average time for it to clear is around 1pm, so mornings can feel like winter, may be better later who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the models look lovely and warm but . its sunny and blue skies here in leeds! but cold!! yes no rain and very dry but would be great to have sunny hot days. see once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

For what it's worth the Met Office were originally going for 19C here today but it only reached 15C.. then again, Stafford is further away from the North Sea so easterlies will have less impact there.

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, sausage said:

once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

They haven't backtracked at all, tomorrow's high in leeds is expected to be 20/21c, 23c on thursday, 16c on friday with a risk of thundery rain and then becoming settled with temps into the low 20's c before soaring into the mid 20's celsius during next week!..the models look great..for most if not all of the uk!:)

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, sausage said:

the models look lovely and warm but . its sunny and blue skies here in leeds! but cold!! yes no rain and very dry but would be great to have sunny hot days. see once again the forecasts and met office have backtracked for this region!! AGAIN.

Yes i think west of the pennines  is best at the moment, sheltered from the east winds.

GFS is an absolute corker this evening with an extended period of well above average temps...and some storms!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

They haven't backtracked at all, tomorrow's high in leeds is expected to be 20/21c, 23c on thursday, 16c on friday with a risk of thundery rain and then settled with temps soaring well into the mid 20's celsius!:)

What forecast shows that? Neither the BBC or Met Office show temps in Leeds reaching 20C until the weekend. And tomorrow's Met Office forecast doesn't show the cloud burning away until 1pm tomorrow.

As for things backtracking - for here they have, because a week of warm sunshine has turned into a week of dull misty mornings (maybe early afternoons) and unremarkable temperatures even for the time year. This month as a whole has been great but this week is turning out rather disappointing compared to what we were expecting just a couple of days ago. But that's the weather for you.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cheese said:

What forecast shows that? Neither the BBC or Met Office show temps in Leeds reaching 20C until the weekend. And tomorrow's Met Office forecast doesn't show the cloud burning away until 1pm tomorrow.

As for things backtracking - for here they have, because a week of warm sunshine has turned into a week of dull misty mornings (maybe early afternoons) and unremarkable temperatures even for the time year. This month as a whole has been great but this week is turning out rather disappointing compared to what we were expecting just a couple of days ago. But that's the weather for you.

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

Yes, of course - I don't mean to begrudge anyone else for enjoying their warm, sunny weather. I just think it's important to remember that a lot of places won't be sharing that and it can be very frustrating when you're the one stuck under a layer of crud. 

And for what it's worth, it's been sunny most of the day here - just disappointingly cool. Enough moaning from me though (these posts should be on the moan/ramps thread - apologies).

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Come to the other side of the Pennines, this is a very decent setup for us. Stunning blue sky and 20C today. Then again it was chilly this morning in the brisk NE wind even here.

Yes good setup for you, maybe as good as NW Scotland, here no high ground to stop the mist

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Liking the GEM 12z tonight, here's the whole run, warm, largely settled, possibility of thundery outbreaks in the south at times.  

tempresult_lcw1.gif

And best of all finishes poised for more continental weather with the heat drawing close, T850s:

gem-1-240.png?12

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, of course - I don't mean to begrudge anyone else for enjoying their warm, sunny weather. I just think it's important to remember that a lot of places won't be sharing that and it can be very frustrating when you're the one stuck under a layer of crud. 

And for what it's worth, it's been sunny most of the day here - just disappointingly cool. Enough moaning from me though (these posts should be on the moan/ramps thread - apologies).

Looking at the output though we should all have some very warm humid conditions by Sunday. Your situation reminds me of how ours often is in a northwesterly- it can be sunny but often very cool feeling.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well,it makes a change...us in the west have endured 2 consecutive misty bank holidays with temperatures barely getting into double figures,  where the rest of the uk have been enjoying wall to wall sunshine and temperatures well into the 20's. I for 1 am really looking foreward to a cracking weekend with a real storm threat as we head back to work.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12z is looking rather toasty with temps around 23/24C right into June! It all a long way off yet so plenty of time for subtle changes. I feel a refreshing break coming on from all this HP domination with some cool and wet days before HP moves back in from the West.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z is a peach of a run if it's summery weather you're after, plenty of sunshine, increasingly very warm nationwide and becoming more humid across the south with an ongoing risk of homegrown thunderstorms breaking out, especially for the south where additionally some would be imported from France but a lot of dry and sunny weather too..turning cooler across the far north by the end of the run but staying very warm for the majority..some great weather for the rest of may!🌞:) 

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp500.png

96_mslp500.png

96_thickuk.png

120_thickuk.png

120_mslp500.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thick.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes an excellent ECM tonight with warm weather a plenty and high pressure firmly in charge out to day 10.

Friday looks a bit meh though.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ensemble mean 12z, here T144, reinforcing what we think we know about the bank holiday.  

EDM1-144.GIF?22-0

Move on to T240 and this is not suggesting that many members are going for the retrogression to Greenland option.

EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

And there is low uncertainty in the region where the higher pressure is - this is usually the case, but it reinforces the notion that at the moment UK weather is settled and largely coming from the continent, jet stream not in play.

EEM1-240.GIF

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      Here we go with a fresh hunt for cold thread as we move into a colder spell of weather and towards the end of Autumn.
      As this is a new thread for this season, there's perhaps been a bit of confusion over what does or doesn't fit in here. So to help out, and be transparent in terms of our moderation of the thread, these are the guidelines we're working to, so if everyone can aim to stay within them, happy days!
      This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:
      Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location. Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok. Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others) Hopefully this helps, if in doubt please ask a member of the team, and if you see a post you think may fall outside of these guidelines, please report it. 
      If you'd prefer a slower paced, more general (not cold slanted) model discussion, please head over to the general thread here.
      Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      A new thread as we move past the mid-point of Autumn..
      This thread is for more general model discussion - eg without the specific focus on the hunt for cold weather, which can be found in the hunt for cold model thread. As ever, please keep it to the models in here.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      With winter approaching over the horizon, a lot of people's thoughts are turning to cold weather potential, but while that's fine, it's not everyone's cup of tea. So, we've started this thread for the cold hunting side of model discussion, with a general discussion thread also up and running for those who'd rather look at all other aspects of the model output.
      Despite the focus on cold weather potential in this thread, please do keep it to the model output. 
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By DiagonalRedLine
      Greetings!
      A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. 🍂🍁
      There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be.

      Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds.
      Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! 🚫
      If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted ❌ or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): 
      But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone.
      Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay).
      But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions.
      Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models:
      ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere:
      If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread.
      (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. 🙂
      —————————
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR 
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
      (Link to previous thread):
      ——————————
      Thanks all!  
    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×