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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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The last time I saw a creature that looked like this was in series 3 of Buffy the Vampire Slayer:

gens-21-3-144.png?12

GEFS mean suggesting a very zonal westerly period following the heatwave.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

The last time I saw a creature that looked like this was in series 3 of Buffy the Vampire Slayer:

gens-21-3-144.png?12

 

Is this what you meant mike?:shok::D

 

Anyway, moving on, the Gfs 12z shows the heat building further s / se during the next 2 / 3 days with 24c possible tomorrow, 26c on thursday and 27c 81f on friday..and very warm during the weekend too further south with 21-23c and also a risk of a few heavy showers / thunderstorms..some of us are on the cusp of a sensational spell of summery warmth / heat, especially london and the southeast generally!:)🌞

s3xe33-graduation-day-part-2.jpg

12_51_uk2mtmp.png

12_51_ukthickness850.png

12_51_mslp850.png

12_75_ukthickness850.png

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12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Is this what you meant mike?:shok::D

 

Anyway, moving on, the Gfs 12z shows the heat building further s / se during the next 2 / 3 days with 24c possible tomorrow, 26c on thursday and 27c 81f on friday..and very warm during the weekend too further south with 21-23c and also a risk of a few heavy showers / thunderstorms..some of us are on the cusp of a sensational spell of summery warmth / heat, especially london and the southeast generally!:)🌞

s3xe33-graduation-day-part-2.jpg

Yep, that's the one Frosty!

But before the zonal Mayor demon strikes, we've got ECM continuing the heatwave into Sunday and even Monday for some parts, here at T120, T144:

ECM1-120.GIF?17-0

ECM1-144.GIF?17-0

I'm interested to see where this run goes from here as well.

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Interestingly, the ECM follows the GFS with some amplification in the Atlantic at T240, bringing in the possibility of a northerly:

ECM1-240.GIF?17-0

GFS was more strongly suggesting this earlier:

gfs-0-240.png?12

I wonder if, after the cold and later dull first half of spring, the second half will blow hot and cold before summer takes over?

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Posted (edited)

Great Ecm 12z, especially for the south which even continues next mon / tues..really very warm for the time of year for the south during the next 7 days according to this run!!..the south / southeast looks truly blessed:)🌞 

 

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120_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

Enjoy the upcoming warmth (I'm not calling it a heatwave, that phrase is far too liberally used, just like the word 'freezing' in winter), will be nice to have some sunshine as well, a marked change in the feel of things is about to occur - that shift from winter base state to summer base state, with nature responding, expect plenty of leaf buds to suddenly burst into green foliage, bees and wasps will be buzzing around, the birds will make for a hive of activity in the skies as summer migrants return.. and we have the joy of May and June just ahead.

I disagree with the bit in bold.  The Met Office defines a heatwave as temps 5 degrees C above average for 5 days or more, and at this time of year if it pans out as modelled it will certainly qualify for some parts of the UK.

Agree with the rest of your post though.

ECM ensembles out. T240:

EDM1-240.GIF

Westerlies, I think.  But this is a mean chart, I'd like to see the clusters.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted (edited)

I would call it a heatwave for the southeast with temperatures 10-12c above average across the s / se on thurs / fri in particular..it's very exceptional what the models are showing in my opinion!!:)🌞

Edited by Frosty.
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Interesting to note Met Office definition of a heatwave (sorry mods for going a bit off topic here, and you can reign me in or any other posts that might now discuss this..), by the definition, then yes preety much all of England and Wales will see a heatwave - with 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow being at least 5 degrees above the average. Is it 5 degrees above mean average or max?

However, it is all relative, and subjective and when can we start calling a warm spell a heatwave, by this reckoning 5 days with maxes 16 degrees or above in March would constitute a heatwave.. wherever in the UK (given average maxes of 10-11 degrees in warmest parts)

Also depends on where you are.

The upcoming spell if it occurred in June, July or August wouldn't by this definition constitute a heatwave.

My own benchmark is a threshold of about 25 degrees whatever the time of year wherever in the UK.

Then is it a heatwave if it also wet or cloudy.. oh dear I've probably opened a can of worms.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note Met Office definition of a heatwave (sorry mods for going a bit off topic here, and you can reign me in or any other posts that might now discuss this..), by the definition, then yes preety much all of England and Wales will see a heatwave - with 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow being at least 5 degrees above the average. Is it 5 degrees above mean average or max?

However, it is all relative, and subjective and when can we start calling a warm spell a heatwave, by this reckoning 5 days with maxes 16 degrees or above in March would constitute a heatwave.. wherever in the UK (given average maxes of 10-11 degrees in warmest parts)

Also depends on where you are.

The upcoming spell if it occurred in June, July or August wouldn't by this definition constitute a heatwave.

My own benchmark is a threshold of about 25 degrees whatever the time of year wherever in the UK.

Then is it a heatwave if it also wet or cloudy.. oh dear I've probably opened a can of worms.

 

 

The equivalent spell in July and August here would see temps of 29-31C (i.e max temps 8-10C above average).

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I disagree with the bit in bold.  The Met Office defines a heatwave as temps 5 degrees C above average for 5 days or more, and at this time of year if it pans out as modelled it will certainly qualify for some parts of the UK.

Agree with the rest of your post though.

ECM ensembles out. T240:

EDM1-240.GIF

Westerlies, I think.  But this is a mean chart, I'd like to see the clusters.

It’s well signposted mid next week it’s downhill. Blustery and showery conditions particularly in NW best of the weather in the SE although not immune. This time of year has a habit of doing this strangely.

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A real heatwave during the next 4 / 5 days across the s / se according to the Gfs 00z..for example, london should reach 24c today, 26 / 28c tomorrow, 25 / 27c on friday, 24 / 25c on saturday and sunday with one of the hottest marathons..enjoy this early taste of summer warmth / heat because the Gfs shows a marked drop in temperatures from next monday although still pleasantly warm at times for the southeast.:)🌞

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The London Marathon's record high of 21.7c in 2007 could be beaten on Sunday GFS and the BBC would have it beaten by a fair margin

84-778UK.thumb.GIF.bf9a25d56d004f6ddec36ed6629d86fe.GIF00_111_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.7e15efc260a9e498e0ad6b4b6aab4ecc.png111_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.4aacd11c23c235f8c59c0ce9b5eff28f.pngDbDAyt9XkAUo6Ni.thumb.jpg.03538e6d565ef426fa328e1c7500142a.jpg

 

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Lovely chart from the CFS for the southeast in 6654 hours

B74809F4-7F52-4F35-817C-D2F596B8CBE5.jpeg

C29484E0-B0DD-42EB-8A3A-BFD0B4F0CC9B.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Some great weather ahead for the next 4 / 5 days or so according to the Ecm 00z.. very warm / hot...especially the further s / se you are..very summery!🌞🌞🌞:)

24_thickuk.png

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96_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Maybe high pressure won't be gone for too long especially away from the north

GFSOPEU06_192_1.thumb.png.04beda2919db29ca3e554679d6bc967d.pngGFSOPEU06_216_1.thumb.png.dbdc77a22f7e37d5985d3208bd4d378f.pngGFSOPEU06_240_1.thumb.png.4420deb4aeae90d83be78ddaf916a6b0.png

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That would cool SS down a bit...

image.thumb.png.27823642607593892d5a3c60e053df82.png

Touch of frost for the new month?

image.thumb.png.05c7d5d62c42165bfd63c5b8706268ce.png

:D

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24_thickuk.thumb.png.43be1afee04242a6556

This has crept up on me a bit for tomorrow....have these 850s been revised up a little from the preceding days? I had it in my head they would be around 10c....its now showing 13/14c in the SE corner? Could we perhaps break 80f?? :)

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Whereas in recent days I was doubtful of storm potential, things now appear to be setting up nicely on Sunday.

Difficult to pinpoint exactly where, however with a cyclonic flow across the UK on Sunday, SLP below 1012mb, high humidity, warmth at the surface and cooler air progressing aloft a lot of ingredients are there IMO.

GFSOPUK06_102_1.pngGFSOPUK06_102_38.png

 

Also there may be a chance of storms crossing the channel on Saturday night into southern parts so worth keeping an eye on.

Quite a remarkable spell for late April, however cooler westerlies look likely to develop early next week.

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On ‎16‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 14:14, 38.5*C said:

Not sure where these maxes of 26/27C are coming from. .... Anywhere will struggle to get anything of 23C or higher let alone 27C.  Any strong sunshine will result in high evapotranspiration rates so unless there is some mixing of dry air from just above the boundary layer then dew points will be quite high. But at same time the near surface temperatures will not be as high as they could be if we had just experienced a very dry March and first half of April with plenty of sunshine. Models just may not factor this in correctly.

Looks like that one is going to be blown well out of the water. BBC have forecast maxes of 28c in the SE for tomorrow, which is higher than anyone probably expected. This has been revised up from 25c a couple of days ago, and the 26/ possibly27c tops that many thought would be the peak! Bring it on! 8) The models surprise you in good ways sometimes!

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Lovely to finally have some warmth, I love warm/hot weather, the hotter the better. 

But I cannot help feeling disappointed at how much this spell has been degraded gradually. We have gone from pretty much a predicted 7 days of wall to wall sunshine and temps above/well above 20c, to 3 days of sun with one day of hot weather and then constant rain and cool temperatures after that.

making the most of this spell, but it could have been so much more

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

london should reach 26 / 28c tomorrow

Yes 28c is possible in London tomorrow which looks like the peak of the hot spell with Mediterranean airflow and then down to 25c on fri and 21-23c at the weekend along with a destabilising atmosphere with an increasing risk of thunderstorms..very summery weather, especially for the s / se during the next 4 days or so.:)🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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Very disappointing. A couple of days ago, that chart was pretty much all sun. Look at the amount of rain on there 😬

172100E0-AAD9-4780-9BC6-D07E516B73DA.png

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11 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Very disappointing. A couple of days ago, that chart was pretty much all sun. Look at the amount of rain on there 😬

172100E0-AAD9-4780-9BC6-D07E516B73DA.png

Indeed but the average temperature over the next 7 days is well above average.

And if you look at some of the recent posts showing several images per line of text you will see that it's going to be warm.

What the actual weather will be like, well best checking the models for that.

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