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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Some impressive cape levels and temps with the 12z for next week, obviously too early atm but if anything like this came off we could see some interesting cloud formations

image.thumb.png.a1904492b0fcb1d76dbdb7659ff84e91.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Toasty 12z run for Sunday/Mon/Tues/Wed!

218547675_ukmaxtemp(8).thumb.png.7385caaba63747e9f7641810c9b6cf05.png

1669025820_ukmaxtemp(9).thumb.png.7b0f63ecc47cebc6380f939b9c30575e.png

1689159052_ukmaxtemp(10).thumb.png.338db4ccdf109fb19f42ecc6eaec1f22.png

1159606302_ukmaxtemp(11).thumb.png.ff72a230b213317f3bf289f8f9d2c500.png

Absolutely sensational. If verified, we will be chasing a monthly temperature record yet again (32.8C). Also the 2nd warmest May on record. However... all extreme patterns have this same feature... they are always extremely close to not verifying :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Some impressive cape levels and temps with the 12z for next week, obviously too early atm but if anything like this came off we could see some interesting cloud formations

image.thumb.png.a1904492b0fcb1d76dbdb7659ff84e91.png

There's been some interesting cloud formations and thunderstorms today with much less impressive cape levels for parts of the south and for the south, the risk of thundery showers continues for the rest of this week before intensifying over a much wider area of southern uk from sunday and well into next week if the Gfs 12z is right...really summery charts..hope it continues!?️?️⛱️

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Fantastic ecm this evening up to 144 hours!!weekend has a hot south east wind across much of the uk and humidity will be sky rocketing!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z gfs op sitting top of the ensembles for heat...but there are a majority of members between 10-15c, so a warm up is looking more likely than not. A few have commented it looks very dodgy heading into June....but let’s worry about that later. Get that heat and instability locked in and let’s have some fun!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic ecm this evening up to 144 hours!!weekend has a hot south east wind across much of the uk and humidity will be sky rocketing!!

Yes, really liking the orientation of the high at T144:

ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

ECM0-144.GIF?21-0

Really interested to see where this run goes,

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
19 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Some impressive cape levels and temps with the 12z for next week, obviously too early atm but if anything like this came off we could see some interesting cloud formations

image.thumb.png.a1904492b0fcb1d76dbdb7659ff84e91.png

Yes indeed ,great charts for storm lovers ,BUT it's a long way off and just like forecasting cold and snow caution is needed in big style,  but nevertheless an interesting trend:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Get that heat and instability locked in and let’s have some fun!!

Fun getting hot and sweaty and soaked from torrential deluges and dodging lightening strikes..can't wait!:whistling:...stunning summery model output though and hopefully plenty of dry, very warm and sunny to go with it!!!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A stunning end to ECM the high rebuilds and the warmth is spreading across Europe

ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.ab7ca5657c3f56f3c37506eb13f4a707.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.464e546d81d286fbe322cc965b1eee03.png

Long may it continue

:)

 

Now this is where I get my fanciful ideas about an extended heatwave from. If the Azores high builds back in like in the ECM 12Z, will the heat ever leave the UK, or, perhaps more significantly, the continent? We would be onto a repeat ticket for the start of June - except one week further into summer - so knock those temperatures up another couple of degrees... 

still this was just the 50% part of the ensembles this morning, the other 50% would swiftly send us back below average. More runs needed, of course!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fun getting hot and sweaty and soaked from torrential deluges and dodging lightening strikes..can't wait!:whistling:...stunning summery model output though and hopefully plenty of dry, very warm and sunny to go with it!!!

looking at the output, I'd rather plump for us southerners baking by day and looking Channelwards for elevated storms and multicell clusters and then hear next morning everyone north of Brum moaning because of the detritus and clagg left over from said imports whilst we bake again down south..with a hint of rinse and a dose of repeat ..you know it makes sense!  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

looking at the output, I'd rather plump for us southerners baking by day and looking Channelwards for elevated storms and multicell clusters and then hear next morning everyone north of Brum moaning because of the detritus and clagg left over from said imports whilst we bake again down south..with a hint of rinse and a dose of repeat ..you know it makes sense!  

It would be great to have the storms at night and hot, dry and sunny days..and the set up the Ecm 12z is showing would mean some would get that while others wouldn't but really it's just wonderful not to see any cool unsettled atlantic dross and instead an anticyclonic / continental combo with sizzling sun and a risk of storms..win win for the majority!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

To be honest the surface chart looks very possible given the five day anomaly you posted, the ridge extension from the Atlantic into northern Europe with a cut off area of low heights towards Portugal. A generally easterly set up which at this time of year will be warm (or very warm in western areas). That low will be able to push some very warm or hot air northwards over France which could reach the UK which is what the models are suggesting for the Bank holiday weekend.

The extended range still looks dry regardless, it just seems to be a question of how far west the high will drift after the bank holiday. I always feel sceptical of these large and clean retrogression patterns, especially as we have an area of low pressure than will continue to want to push hot air into central and northern Europe and as such mitigate any attempts to develop a deep trough over Scandinavia. So further on I suspect heights will probably remain close to the north of the UK though the temperatures may drop from the possible highs this coming weekend back towards the levels we are seeing now (High teens/low twenties).

well tonights anomaly charts have shifted a bit, ill go back to sleep lol...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean at T168 following largely the op with the orientation of the high:

EDM1-168.GIF?21-0

Less of the retrogression option, more leaving high pressure over us and to the east.  Good set of runs, I'd say, would be interested to see the clusters, T240:

EDM1-240.GIF

As others have said further up the thread, the retrogression option had been increasing on ECM ensemble runs, if the 12z is a move back away from that it is good news.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

BBC extended going for 28c over the holiday weekend on tonight’s update, though as discussed in here not like last time....more humidity, cloud, storms etc making it uncomfortable. I’m just gonna have a quick moan and say they aren’t overly useful, they change their tune like the wind! A couple of days ago they said it would be turning westerly and unsettled...:now the opposite is happening. Why forecast something that was never really set in stone?? At least this has cross model and ensemble support!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well tonights anomaly charts have shifted a bit, ill go back to sleep lol...

I should also have pointed out that the weekend cpc  anomoly is purely naefs with no eps taken into account  - be interesting to see how different the 6/10 is this evening 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not a bad mean a fairly prolonged spell of warmth for many showers beginning to increase in the south as pressure lowers enough here to trigger some storms at times always drier in the north where pressure remains higher

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.46efed42aa446913c4fd0181f02fb32a.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.ce74c34b37f4e4bce5cfb1b7daeb35c7.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

With every passing day, I'm getting more and more positive about the prospects of this upcoming Summer. I know weather can change so quickly, but I really have a feeling this summer will be a very memorable one. 

All the signs are good. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I should also have pointed out that the weekend cpc  anomoly is purely naefs with no eps taken into account  - be interesting to see how different the 6/10 is this evening 

It's a corker

610day.03.gif

for some reason its not updated properly for me, the trough is now more SW than S, which will inevitably mean a hotter feed for the UK

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
18 minutes ago, matty007 said:

With every passing day, I'm getting more and more positive about the prospects of this upcoming Summer. I know weather can change so quickly, but I really have a feeling this summer will be a very memorable one. 

All the signs are good. 

Hopefully the high will stay close enough to the East. If it goes west it’s a whole different kettle of . I honestly don’t have a clue about June but the retrogressive signal is hanging around.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

finally got my pc sorted out after a burn out of my hard drive(my fault),was cleaning it out and inserted my front fan the wrong way and was blowing the warm air out instead of sucking cool air in,anyway...

I don't usaully post at this time of the year as i am a coldie fan but i am loving these charts and weather that we are getting at the moment,what!!!,two may bank holidays with sunshine and warmth,you don't see that every year,ok there might be some hickups regarding some storms especially in the south but after a long cold winter it's payback and we are still not in summer yet

latest from cpc show a nice continental drift from the E/SE with HP to our north and at this time of year could/should import some very warm weather from the continent

6-10 and 8-14 day outlook

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

Weerplaza temps,dewpoints and w/direction

ECMWF more bullish on touching 30c and you can see the E/SE wind direction

eps_pluim_tt_06260.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png

gfs temps and wind direction

gens_pluim_tt_06260.pnggens_pluim_dd_06260.png

ECM and GFS mean at 144 hrs and 240 hrs

EDH1-144.GIF?21-0gensnh-0-1-144.png?12

EDH1-240.GIF?21-0gensnh-0-1-240.png?12

all looking good to me and may it continue,with the added thunderstorms too?️

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
14 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Hopefully the high will stay close enough to the East. If it goes west it’s a whole different kettle of . I honestly don’t have a clue about June but the retrogressive signal is hanging around.

Well I'm not a chart expert, nor am I fortune teller, but in my opinion this will be a largely settled June with very hot periods mixed with short breakdowns. 

The charts have largely been nothing but positive for some time now. In the past the writing has largely been on the wall so to speak. Low jet, highs over Greenland etc. But this year, the jet is extremely high and the HP strong. Of course, that could change, but all things considered, the signs are very very encouraging. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

If you really want to chase down the unthinkable, keep an eye on the next few runs on the area of high temperatures coming up from Africa around T168. If they get sucked into circulation that's headed for Britain, something quite incredible in terms of heat could be the result. Making a good fist of it on the GFS 18Z, rolling out as we speak. 

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