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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I for one love @Tamara's posts 😍

Yes, what a fantastic post by my Sussex Girl neighbour Tamara. Certainly take what we have now and enjoy. What wonderful weather here in Cheshire. Just timed my Blighty break at the right time. Must be 23c and the Cheshire countryside looks stunning and ever so green.Pint or two this evening in one of my old watering Holes, the lovely "The Bells of Peover " pub ( below ).

C

IMG_1769.jpg

Edited by carinthian
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Posted (edited)

Magnificent Tamara.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Removed long quote.
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5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry chaps, whilst there are some stunning outputs currently if you like it hot, the anomaly charts dont agree with the ops as to where the high will be centered, and the anomaly charts are more often then not correct. they have been suggesting high pressure evolution just west of north now for several days which to me suggests consistency.
so to my eye, this chart
610day_03.thumb.gif.5125ea3aa7eb78acddea7429ba93411f.gif

will not lead to this


GFSOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.67a4d48d0352f9c632f984191c730fe0.png

To be honest the surface chart looks very possible given the five day anomaly you posted, the ridge extension from the Atlantic into northern Europe with a cut off area of low heights towards Portugal. A generally easterly set up which at this time of year will be warm (or very warm in western areas). That low will be able to push some very warm or hot air northwards over France which could reach the UK which is what the models are suggesting for the Bank holiday weekend.

The extended range still looks dry regardless, it just seems to be a question of how far west the high will drift after the bank holiday. I always feel sceptical of these large and clean retrogression patterns, especially as we have an area of low pressure than will continue to want to push hot air into central and northern Europe and as such mitigate any attempts to develop a deep trough over Scandinavia. So further on I suspect heights will probably remain close to the north of the UK though the temperatures may drop from the possible highs this coming weekend back towards the levels we are seeing now (High teens/low twenties).

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Posted (edited)

12z UKMO and 12z gfs has the 16c isotherm touching the south coast at 144 (Sunday). Amazing.

Edited by mb018538
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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z UKMO and 12z gfs has the 16c isotherm touching the south coast at 144 (Sunday). Amazing.

The GFS keeps that 16C isotherm over the south into Monday and Tuesday. 

gfs-0-168.png?12   gfs-0-192.png?12

An increasingly slack and cyclonic easterly from that low to our south west. Borderline tropical with the GFS even suggesting temperatures close to 30C with the real risk of some pretty beefy thunderstorms developing with some stunning instability being predicted. 

The question is whether we can cleanly advect the heat towards the UK for the weekend, if it makes it to the UK then we could end May on a high.

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Posted (edited)

All hinging on the Iberian trough sending it our way. May could end up being truly memorable at this rate. Still too far away to be sure yet, we could easily just end up with an easterly and no warm air at all.

Edited by mb018538

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I'm really liking the look of the northward shift of that Iberian trough on the 12z GFS. If it happens as shown, we could see some fireworks :D

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Here's the GEM 12z, looks a great run, heat, and possible thunder later  in the  south

tempresult_hxs4.gif

Jet way north at end of run:

gem-5-240.png?12

Just allowing the warm air to surge north into the void:

gem-1-240.png?12

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14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay 32° for London area, Wednesday of Whit holiday week!

Netweather GFS Image

I was going to have to look for a magnifying glass to see that but thankfully cheesepuffscott posted!:D...😎...stunning output today, hope it verifies.🌞

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I was going to have to look for a magnifying glass to see that but thankfully cheesepuffscott posted!:D...😎...stunning output today, hope it verifies.🌞

was about to quote Scott, how do you make posted pictures bigger?, some other members the same

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was about to quote Scott, how do you make posted pictures bigger?, some other members the same

I just attached the pictures as normal and it works (you're able to click) ! I am not sure why other members sometimes have photos which I can't click or zoom in on, different method?

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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Just now, CheesepuffScott said:

I just attached the pictures as normal and it works! I am not sure why other members sometimes have photos which I can't click or zoom in on, different method?

Yours are okay, mike poole's though aren't, neither are mine

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Posted (edited)

UKMO looking superb for the holiday weekend here at T144:

UW144-21.GIF?21-18

16C uppers into SW. Just.

UW144-7.GIF?21-18

I think the issues with the pictures enlarging is a fault since the software was upgraded, I and others have asked in the help thread.  You can get round it if you save to your device and upload it, it's a pain on an iPad though.   For some reason animated GIFs load OK in my experience. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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12z switches on the oven next week. THREE days of temps into low 30's for SE with even Northern England receiving the some of the delightful humidity and high 20s, Was going to post the charts to post but looks like ive been saved the job! 

 

ken wil.png

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yours are okay, mike poole's though aren't, neither are mine

Yeah, hmm it's really strange and annoying sometimes when I want to see something without putting my eyes against my screen!

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Posted (edited)

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Ay, used to be okay, used to right click, then copy image, or copy image address, both come up tiny

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm really liking the look of the northward shift of that Iberian trough on the 12z GFS. If it happens as shown, we could see some fireworks :D

Yes I think my jaw dropped when I looked at the 12z, incredible pattern. As Captain Shortwave mentioned, how many times do we see retrogression to Greenland fail due to shortwaves, if this were to happen next week then its hard to see how the hot air could be displaced.

This is an impressive pattern for high summer let alone late May, what I also find interesting is that this is a very unusual pattern with low pressure persisting near Portugal/Iberia bringing up warm air from Africa. A real clash of airmasses, slack winds and hot temperatures could lead to some explosive convection. From my time analysing the best thundery breakdowns / stormy periods, its often those with cyclonic southerlies/SE'lies that deliver the goods. July 2017,2014 and June 1994 come to mind.

It may be the GFS OP is on the extreme side of things but just compare today's 12z chart to Monday's... good grief.

Today, maximum temperatures and CAPE, which was a decent effort down here.

image.thumb.png.d383c43838e2d092939f33715f700fd8.pngimage.thumb.png.cb1daeef53d7b379667e8c93ba94c8ba.png

Next monday

image.thumb.png.80d981ab57ecf76c62c76f1055bf5614.pngimage.thumb.png.61d6ad860fed9b41eff075e0fbb9b165.png  

 

 

If this is still being forecast by Thursday I will start getting very excited. Really awesome charts for storm lovers, though to be picky SLP could do with being a bit lower.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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4 charts from Quicksilver, only the bottom left on mine comes up tiny? same for everyone else?

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

4 charts from Quicksilver, only the bottom left on mine comes up tiny? same for everyone else?

Same here! It's teasing me..

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One thing to note is that if this heat builds in next week, it won’t be anything like the other 2 hot spells....this will be an oppressive, muggy, humid spell of heat. Great if you like that sort of thing with storms! Not so good if you enjoy sunshine and things feeling comfortable!

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

4 charts from Quicksilver, only the bottom left on mine comes up tiny? same for everyone else?

I found a way round it, copy the image onto MS paint and then copy the image from MS paint onto netweather 😃. All charts should be expandable now.

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