Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Stormeh]

I am loving the look of the models, I am off to the Lake District on Friday for a few days and the outlook looks perfect for hill walking

[Captain Shortwave]

Longer term there is a clearly a difference of opinion in regards to where we are heading.

GEFs

   

The GEFs continue to want to retrogress the high westwards and longer term tries to introduce more changeable conditions from the north west.

ECM ens

   

The ECM suite wants to maintain that ridge to our and in general wants to try and redevelop the low to our south west. In terms of conditions for week two this would be the difference between the GFS (Turning cooler and fresher) and the ECM (The possibility of a more southerly component to the wind developing which could turn conditions very warm or even hot as we enter June). Hard to call at the moment as to which one is more likely.

GEM typically disagrees with both and holds the high close to the UK, well it is more centred over Ireland but would continue to keep conditions rather settled and warm rather than anything extreme. As for my expectations, the typical prognosis would be that eventually the high will slip away to our east but before then the chance of perhaps seeing our first 30C of the year during the first week or so of June is certainly possible so for me the ECM probably looks like the more viable solution.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[bluearmy]

The period post week two continues to drift with a retrogressive lw pattern. The sceuro ridge being replaced by a nw Russian upper trough and the upper ridge becomes more e Atlantic/nw Europe/Iceland based. that’s a big call given how long the sceuro ridge has reigned supreme these past few months - best left to see if it continues to be the trend - would certainly help the boys in russia next month! 

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters T300 - the themes of recent days remain. In general, a split outlook between a North Sea based ridge and a NE Atlantic ridge (both summery for the UK but less warm on the latter option), with a minor cluster collapsing the ridge NWwards leaving us more unsettled. But it must be stressed - a very minor cluster :

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM and UKMO pretty similar at t168 high pressure in control for most but the south is never far away from the unsettled weather over France a slight shift north would increase the risk of rain/showers here

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Turning out to be one of the finest Mays in recent memories! Absolutely stunning.

I will note however that we are never too far away from some impressive instability over the near continent, which could bring some real ground shakers in terms of storms to the south at times more towards the end of the week as it stands! Very much reminiscent of late May 1999. 

[Mike Poole]

Lovely day here today, and it's quiet in here and I can see why, looking at individual runs won't tell us much we don't know about the next week, and longer term where the high heads is still open to question.  Quite happy if it evolves like the ICON 12z though:

Edited May 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[carinthian]

8 hours ago, carinthian said:

Looks glorious again today.  Manchester/Chester could be close to one of the hot spots..23C?

C

Wonderful summer charts again from the latest UKMO especially the NW. Manchester just hit top spot in the country at 1700h with 23c !

 c

[Man With Beard]

UKMO is really feeling it tonight

  

GFS pumping the continental heat ever closer for the bank holiday weekend

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my imagination or does Friday look yucky? 6Z showed it too

[Mike Poole]

Yesterday's four runs from the CFS, Z500 anomalies for June, with 18z first:

Full house for today.  

Edited May 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yesterday's four runs from the CFS, Z500 anomalies for June, with 18z first:

Full house for today.  

Pretty poor looking charts for anyone off to Spain !

[Mike Poole]

A comparison of the UKMO GFS and GEM at T144:

1040 mb on two of them in the vicinity of the UK in late May.  And consistency wrt the larger scale pattern.  I don't think this block is going to shift for the next month despite any output to the contrary.  We'll see .

Edited May 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Is it me or is GFS 12z just one belter of a run, Entering into June and HP well established across Scandi again with a warm to hot E'ly flow.  FI (Fantasy Imagination) I know but this looks like a nice step into 1976 territory. 

[Scorcher]

36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my imagination or does Friday look yucky? 6Z showed it too

Yes the NE flow is slightly concerning to  me at this time of year- it's a fairly long sea track for the UK across a still cold North Sea in the sort of setup GFS is showing.

With luck we might avoid any North Sea filth on this side of the Pennines but there are no guarantees- sometimes the low cloud can spill right across.

I still think the GFS is being a bit pessimistic however.

[Mike Poole]

Add into the mix the 12z GEFS mean at T192, roll on summer of '18  it really could be a cracker.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Pretty poor looking charts for anyone off to Spain !

Spains version of Northern Blocking  

[mb018538]

Looks like potential is growing for some very warm/hot weather developing into the next bank holiday weekend. Long way off at the mo, but it’s appeared a few times now and needs watching. Great 12z again, this May has been fantastic on the whole!

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Yes the NE flow is slightly concerning to  me at this time of year- it's a fairly long sea track for the UK across a still cold North Sea in the sort of setup GFS is showing.

With luck we might avoid any North Sea filth on this side of the Pennines but there are no guarantees- sometimes the low cloud can spill right across.

I still think the GFS is being a bit pessimistic however.

Actually those temperatures are nothing to do with low cloud, the GFS brings an area of rain off the continent which affects eastern parts of the UK which would suppress temperatures. In general I suspect that these organised areas of rain will probably disappear in the closer range with just a few thundery showers developing across inland parts of central/southern England.

Looking at some models and the general national forecasts, low cloud actually doesn't look to be too much of an issue, maybe some mist on direct coasts but the north sea looks pretty clear once the next couple of days pass. We just need to watch out for any rain being imported from the continent.

      

To be honest the model output suggests that shower activity might get squeezed out by the weekend as 500mb and surface heights rise so perhaps a sunny and warm/very warm bank holiday looks a real possibility (In fact with 850s approaching 15C across the south then hot is certainly possible). Could we really get two cracking bank holidays on the bounce? 

Okay Monday sees some instability as that cold pool moves westwards but given the changes in the output, would this actually pan out or will we end up with a cleaner ridge.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Actually those temperatures are nothing to do with low cloud, the GFS brings an area of rain off the continent which affects eastern parts of the UK which would suppress temperatures. In general I suspect that these organised areas of rain will probably disappear in the closer range with just a few thundery showers developing across inland parts of central/southern England.

Looking at some models and the general national forecasts, low cloud actually doesn't look to be too much of an issue, maybe some mist on direct coasts but the north sea looks pretty clear once the next couple of days pass. We just need to watch out for any rain being imported from the continent.

   

To be honest the model output suggests that shower activity might get squeezed out by the weekend as 500mb and surface heights rise so perhaps a sunny and warm/very warm bank holiday looks a real possibility (In fact with 850s approaching 15C across the south then hot is certainly possible). Could we really get two cracking bank holidays on the bounce? 

Yes.

[damianslaw]

No change from the models today's output - a continuation of the very settled theme, with high pressure ruling the roost for the foreseeable, bringing warm conditions for all. Signs we may pull in a more continental feed in time for the Bank Holiday which would raise upper temps, but equally signs heights might not position so favourably and instead it will be a more direct easterly feed. Either way, remaining dry for many, chance of isolated heavy downpours in places, but you will be unlucky to see them.

Those thinking current synoptics will hold through the summer, as ever, caution is urged. Now is the most likely time of year we see an atlantic shutdown, and the northern hemisphere doesn't settle into its summer base state until later in June, it would be exceptional to see such synoptics hold now right through the summer. Not saying it can't happen, but the chances are slim - the current synoptics are anamolous ones - i.e. not the norm, but as I said more probable now than in the depths of summer.

[Mike Poole]

ECM out now and with the other models until T192:

Fast forward to T240, and it's a dog's breakfast.  Enjoy 

Edited May 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[cheshire snow]

Looks like a fantastic week of weather this coming week with plenty of warm sunshine 

Temperatures into the low 20s which for me is just perfect.Some isolated Thunderstorms look likely in more southern and central areas at times.Bank holiday looks like been settled and warm as Well.

Edit

Above just been confirmed on the week ahead forecast 

Enjoy

C.S

[carinthian]

18 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Looks like a fantastic week of weather this coming week with plenty of warm sunshine 

Temperatures into the low 20s which for me is just perfect.Some isolated Thunderstorms look likely in more southern and central areas at times.Bank holiday looks like been settled and warm as Well.

Edit

Above just been confirmed on the week ahead forecast 

Enjoy

C.S

Great news. Will be up there in your part of the world tomorrow. See Manchester Airport was the top hot spot today with 23c.

C

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ! With continued blocking from Scandinavia , our weather comes from the East , as its done for some time now. But the trend from both ecm and gfs is for a lowering of pressure from the south so ,thunderstorms  look like increasing along with heat and humidity as we move towards the Bank Holiday weekend , The Atlantic is dead for now.......