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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM det is very appealing this evening with much more emphasis on the azores high longer term- in the 0-72 hour timeframe its very warm for much of England and Wales.

Obviously the mean / clusters will reveal more , but no appetite for a durable trough on EC tonight.

Backing up Tamara's recent postings...

I have taken the recent model output beyond seven days, showing the troughing, with a warehouse of salt for that reason. In fact, I don't take any big pattern change seriously unless it is showing consistently, and getting closer with each run instead of staying 10 days out like a mirage.

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I actually think tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on an encouraging note with pressure slowly rising☺...in the meantime, if you love heat there's plenty of it through this weekend further s / e / se..much less risk of a shower, plenty of sunshine and light winds, sunday could reach 31c in the SE and 29c on monday!🌞🌡️

EDM1-240.gif

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Paying attention to Tamarras posts has kept me nicely relaxed these last two weeks. 

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I actually think tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on an encouraging note with pressure slowly rising☺...in the meantime, if you love heat there's plenty of it through this weekend further s / e / se..much less risk of a shower, plenty of sunshine and light winds, sunday could reach 31c in the SE and 29c on monday!🌞🌡️

EDM1-240.gif

Yes, Karl, I strongly agree that the ECM mean is heading in the right direction, with the 1015 line moving further into the UK rather than away over the last few frames.  Meanwhile, strong support from the FIM9 12z similar to ECM op run from earlier:

image.thumb.jpg.039aad463f1eb6e32654487989be0eb2.jpg

At this stage it is just a signal, but most definitely one to watch on the runs of the next day or two.

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Not surprised to see quite varying intra model runs at the moment, uncertainty regarding track of ex hurricane Chris and the extent and depth of atlantic trough development. ECM is flip flopping around, yesterday it showed cyclonic conditions longer term, today its showing a ridge building through the UK. Its one of those occasions we see all too often in normal summers, but this year things have been very different so far, i.e. more certainty than usual.

My own thoughts are for a generally unsettled theme for whole of next week, trough digging into western parts and becoming slow moving, the azores high will try to nose NE, but will struggle, and we are more likely to see a plume event of sorts as we end the month with ridge building to our east with the trough sat to our west. As others have stated, there is a shift taking place which favours less of an azores high influence and more of a trough to west / ridge to east scenario anchored by heights to the NE putting a force of the jet and causing it to become unstuck with energy splitting allowing a weak trough feature to move SW to our west. End result, the warm/very warm theme will continue in the main for SE parts, temps in the west though much nearer average compared to the first half of the summer. 

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We seem to have seen the far end of the troughy pendulum swing and are no way drifting back - how far can the swing back go?

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29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, I strongly agree that the ECM mean is heading in the right direction, with the 1015 line moving further into the UK rather than away over the last few frames.  Meanwhile, strong support from the FIM9 12z similar to ECM op run from earlier:

image.thumb.jpg.039aad463f1eb6e32654487989be0eb2.jpg

At this stage it is just a signal, but most definitely one to watch on the runs of the next day or two.

Yes mike hope this trend continues and that these glorious conditions return again. Next week doesn't even look bad actually, warm with sunshine and showers..I can think of much worse summer weather than that!☺

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We seem to have seen the far end of the troughy pendulum swing and are no way drifting back - how far can the swing back go?

Agreed Blue- Sat- mon looks very decent away from the NW (i keep saying that and feel a bit bad but the further SE you head the better).

The question is what will conditions on the ground be like come tue-fri? BBC raw suggests mainly dry and warm even as far north as manchester-i suspect the direction we are travelling would suggest the SE holds onto some warm air right through next week..

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 00z hots up again towards the end of the run..so, a hot start, warm middle and another hot finish🌡️🌞🌩️🙂

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted (edited)

ECM 00Z is its third successive run with a new build of heights to the UK between 21st and 23rd July. It isn't completely supported by its clusters from last night but you can see how it is not likely to be far off, for the south at very least (maybe for all) 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071312_240.

All clusters have some sort of ridging but the success of the ridging depends on how quickly the first trough vacate and how developed the next one is. One can't be certain how this will end up yet, regardless of the consistency of the op. 

D11-D15 in the clusters were a genuine split between ridge or trough dominated scenarios so no strong guidance from the ECM ensembles just at the moment - maybe we get a clearer picture from the 00z suite? 

Edited by Man With Beard
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The injection of Chris into the n Atlantic basin has certainly provided us with some nwp entertainment - something to bear in mind once the next we’ll developed ex TD arrives on the scene ............

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00Z GEM shows high pressure still close to our shores any rain we see next week may not last that long before the heat re-builds

GEMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.10844534a65d18b0c9db3c499f8747b6.pngGEMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.984c52c7251faf9638d7cc86cc56e835.pngGEMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.d1b799912351017690d1a80b650ba50c.pngGEMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.69a3a26936060e5453b937a53222559e.pngGEMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.13de7e911cb079e6f1fb0a3244890c43.png

GEMOPEU00_72_2.thumb.png.393798cf87470a45b60b335bb6bd69ea.pngGEMOPEU00_120_2.thumb.png.87c05cd12ebeb085a79df6dc4cf64106.pngGEMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.a48c9be0b19032a100c25ad057b86062.pngGEMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.1a1633b93e55870efff0f53d06babd0b.pngGEMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.98b8898a2ff6a04c0ff88718f68a7864.png

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed Blue- Sat- mon looks very decent away from the NW (i keep saying that and feel a bit bad but the further SE you head the better).

The question is what will conditions on the ground be like come tue-fri? BBC raw suggests mainly dry and warm even as far north as manchester-i suspect the direction we are travelling would suggest the SE holds onto some warm air right through next week..

Monday looks like the worst day of next week to me, forecasts for here show it being rather cloudy with spells of rain. The remaining week is dry and partly cloudy with just a small chance of showers, temperatures in the low 20s.

There seems to be some sort of frontal system moving across the country on Monday? Depends on how much it maintains itself.

Edited by cheese
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I can't see any real pattern change, less settled come next week for a few days and then back to square 1. The Atlantic is just not showing any true influence and expect the jet (what there is of one) to head back north in a weeks time approximately. 

So that's me spending 1/2 an hour still watering the flowers every evening.

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13 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Backing up Tamara's recent postings...

I have taken the recent model output beyond seven days, showing the troughing, with a warehouse of salt for that reason. In fact, I don't take any big pattern change seriously unless it is showing consistently, and getting closer with each run instead of staying 10 days out like a mirage.

not sure what youre getting at here... troughing has been expected by early next week since at least last saturday (when i got back from dubai and started viewing the models again). so imho its not at 'ten days like a mirage' .

the only question really is 'how deep the troughing will be' , and thats still to be resolved but its not looking like itll be very deep.  but the current heatwave pattern of ridging extending across the uk and heading eastwards off the azores high, IS ending, for now at least. the noaa anomaly charts have progged this consistently, and troughing remains the mean expected upper pattern for the next 2 weeks, or should i say 'shallow troughing'.

so maybe not a 'big' pattern change, and indeed its not looking bad with decent temps/sunny periods/showers but theres certainly a relaxation of the higher pressure and higher temps.

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34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not sure what youre getting at here... troughing has been expected by early next week since at least last saturday (when i got back from dubai and started viewing the models again). so imho its not at 'ten days like a mirage' .

the only question really is 'how deep the troughing will be' , and thats still to be resolved but its not looking like itll be very deep.  but the current heatwave pattern of ridging extending across the uk and heading eastwards off the azores high, IS ending, for now at least. the noaa anomaly charts have progged this consistently, and troughing remains the mean expected upper pattern for the next 2 weeks, or should i say 'shallow troughing'.

so maybe not a 'big' pattern change, and indeed its not looking bad with decent temps/sunny periods/showers but theres certainly a relaxation of the higher pressure and higher temps.

Weird how you think the noaa anomaly charts are magically exempt from being wrong. It is nowhere near certain that we will see troughing for two weeks.

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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Weird how you think the noaa anomaly charts are magically exempt from being wrong. It is nowhere near certain that we will see troughing for two weeks.

In fact I would say it’s highly unlikely.

Aren’t anomaly charts based on probability and likelihood? Just because troughing shows an increased likelihood doesn’t mean that it will happen.

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06z GFS builds in link up between Azores and Scandi HP from day 8-9, then does the usual GFS trick of blasting it away as soon as it gets into low res.

So more good signs in my opinion for the unsettled spell to be a small blip.

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Posted (edited)

I think this looks now like a week long wobble at worst, and even during the wobble, if you dodge showers it will still be pretty warm (caveat that for those much further north). Worst take on GFS 6z T144:

image.thumb.jpg.51fd3e41e7dd2e300b2dad4555d444af.jpg

Should bring some much need rain, but like recent ECM runs, brings the ridge back in towards T240, no need to look beyond that at the moment

image.thumb.jpg.46532bc50b5428e9553caede15f13d6b.jpg

GEM 0z supports the re-ridging as well

image.thumb.jpg.cc36ead5e498737a25dd74006453f7c6.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted (edited)

I like the Gfs 6z operational, next week looks warm with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery, friday there could be some very thundery weather with heavy rain but then the azores ridge builds in which gradually kills the showers with increasingly fine warmer weather returning, especially further s / e..this is followed by a brief unsettled blip before things improve again, indeed the end of the run looks interesting, a few tweaks and we would tap into serious continental heat..incidentally, the extended met office update has improved today, there is more chance of hot weather returning, at least to southern uk through late july and the first half of august!!☺

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Edited by Frosty.
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At last, the models are mor consistently reading the UK-Euro-Scandi(ish) ridge signal for about a week from now onward. 

The main uncertainties now are the  strength and exact path of the low drifting around in our vicinity midweek - could bring anything from isolated showers to a long spell of rain - and how quickly the associated upper low clears away later in the week to allow high pressure from the SW or SSW to displace or dissipate the surface low.

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Posted (edited)

12s rolling and it's good news re wobblegate!  ICON at T180, GFS at T192, and GEM a little later at T222 all show the ridge inexorably moving back in after the brief less settled spell.  Was it ever in doubt?   Charts:

image.thumb.jpg.81d2c8d96ef842ed561944f00cbac9d3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.106731bcd77f983362cb0a54f2cf3472.jpg

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what the ECM saw yesterday, the others see today.

Edit: actually the 12s aren't good, they are awesome compared to recent output 😎

Edited by Mike Poole
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Good 12zs so far even for the short to medium term!!not as much rain as forecasted a few days ago and dry weather set to continue in quiet a few places!!may this hot summer continue!!!

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Think here on we may see further upgeades, the last part the coming week is looking more dryer towards end of week and not much rain through week, most may miss

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Well..I liked the Gfs 6z but I like the 12z even more..hope it's right about this!☺🌞

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