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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM well out on its own again tonight as the pick of the pack - I mean compare the 240 chart to gem - chalk and cheese!

Looks like we’re no clearer to the evolution into next week either, which isn’t helpful.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM well out on its own again tonight as the pick of the pack - I mean compare the 240 chart to gem - chalk and cheese!

Looks like we’re no clearer to the evolution into next week either, which isn’t helpful.

With the divergence in the runs starting so early, it’s no surprise that by 240 they are worlds apart.

Still, surely you’d back the ECM over GEM?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM well out on its own again tonight as the pick of the pack - I mean compare the 240 chart to gem - chalk and cheese!

Looks like we’re no clearer to the evolution into next week either, which isn’t helpful.

I absolutely loved most of the Gfs 12z and all of the Ecm 12z..it would spice things up with very warm and humid continental type weather...sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms..bring it on!!!?️

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just had a look at the extended GEFS 12z mean and for southern uk it indicates some very decent weather, especially temperature wise..nice and warm, a risk of thunderstorms but plenty of strong July sunshine too!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
54 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

With the divergence in the runs starting so early, it’s no surprise that by 240 they are worlds apart.

Still, surely you’d back the ECM over GEM?

I would back the Fim9 over GEM.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

NWP will be struggling with mixed macro signals right now - GLAAM is spiking, but variance in forecast output in the last few days makes in unclear just how much energy will be pumped into the atlantic. Also the MJO is growing, but forecasts are confused as to speed of progression and NOAA reports talk of a fairly static and slow signal over the next 2 weeks. The pacific profile is unexciting at the moment - no dominant signal at the equator.

End product is a trend that should really be promoting a more amplified pattern according to GSDM expectations, but the atmosphere is not ready quite yet to lose its Nina state. End result I suspect will be a pattern that will bring more unsettled weather to the north, but an azores ridge that will remain strong enough in situ to give the south some good extended conditions. Agree with a few posters that heavy thundery showers may come into the mix on top for the south, with the spike in GLAAM helping the Euro ridge to border on a scandy one... with lower pressure over central Europe. With the right alignment here plume activity as we move closer to the end of the month is a possibility.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 12z there's certainly some hot / plume potential in there with temperatures into the 30's celsius, hot sunshine and a risk of spectacular thunderstorms!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Divergence appearing in the models at a relatively short time scale, all indicates we are entering a shift in the overall background base state, we've had weeks where well into fantasy the models have been preety similiar, but not now. Much appears to be down to how they model the ex tropical storm Chris. Some take it north, some take it on a more direct path across the UK, others show it fizzling in situ on a more SW trajectory.

In the short term - further warm mostly settled conditions, but chance of heavy thundery downpours Thursday and Friday as conditions become slack and we see temps rise.

Weekend will see a north-west/southeast divide, very warm further south and east you go and sunny and mainly dry, the NW will see atlantic air invade with associated rain, this fizzling out as it reaches central regions.

Into next week, signals we will ridge development to our east anchor itself in place putting up a fight against any westerly atlantic incursion. End result probably a slack airstream, a mini-plume event in the east, wet weather for the west, rain becoming slow moving, further showery outbreaks heavy in places.

As we head through latter part of July, a more robust plume event looks very plausible, hot weather possible in the SE, but also very humid, sticky nights and hazy skies, with threat of localised heavy downpours, frontal features could become unstuck over SW/W parts, so some heavy rain possible.

I'm not a fan of southerly airstreams in the depths of summer, much rather have a clean northerly or the high overhead, hazy thundery humid skies are not my cup of tea, but do become more likely in the second half of the summer, and the NW tends to be more prone to atlantic southwesterly mush..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro tonight is much like this mornings run but a bit messier. Instead of a clean return to high pressure after the trough lifts out the 12z forms a wave along the dying front which brings the warm air back north. 

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

Tonights GFS run however stands firm in opposition, the trough moves through pretty swiftly to form a Euro trough before later on we try a plume. The one constant from the GFS after we enter next week is that it would be wet. Indeed FI, extremely so. 

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

...

FI right now is at day 6. Both models agree that a low pressure area will get a front somewhere into England. Where they differ afterwards is whether the trough just lifts out or whether it is replaced by one over Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Very easy on the eye 18z - temps well into the 20's for the next 10 days for much of the country and some potentially heavy thundery showers as pressure becomes quite slack at times.

In many ways its a run for those who like warmth and storms.

Any cool air is reserved for NW Scotland in closer proximity to any troughs.

For those further south its warm to very warm at times- the weekend looks high 20s in the SE and mid 20s around manchester.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Personally, to me, these charts are mostly hideous at face value. All show quite substantial rainfall to some degree, and very unstable airmass which only invites Atlantic rubbish. The potential plume is a positive from a temperature point of view, but plumes in this country are only too often met with great instability and unsettled ness afterwards. 

As much as I love hot/exteme temperatures, stability and dryness is much more appealing to me in general. The weather we’ve had for the past few weeks/two months has been perfect to me. Nice and warm, stable and dry. The prospect of all this instability and uncertainty is not a appealing one to me.

i don’t believe Summer 2018 is over by any means and we’ll see more great weather but it’s certainly very worrying to look at these models and the present is certainly the most grim and unpositive the outlook has appeared for some time now. 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

A quick look at the lay of the land so far this morning...

UKMO brings ex-chris across the Atlantic to join up with the main Icelandic trough. Staying warm through the weekend and into the next in the east, with cooler air knocking on the door by Tuesday:

UW144-21.GIF?11-07UW144-7.GIF?11-07

GFS is actually pretty similar at the same time:

gfs-0-144.pnggfs-1-144.png

It's still very keen on slowly bringing the trough over the UK by day 10:

gfs-0-240.png

GEM pretty much in the same boat too:

gem-0-240.png?00

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

You gota admit though thats a pretty big improvement on yesterday on the gfs!!for the same time it had a trough parked over us from europe producing showers today it has a high!!!that was my point yesterday that as we get closer to next week it could be a lot drier than what the models show at the moment!!ukmo is pretty darn goood up to 144 hours and keeps on extending the warmth!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM isn't bad at all - trough also comes into play, but parks itself out to the SW and acts as a heat pump before slowly wandering across the UK - looking like very warm/hot, humid with thundery downpours going by that evolution. Could be worse, certainly not a washout.

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png ECMOPEU00_216_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a cautionary note that highish height anomalies do not necessarily mean high slp. could see a spell where we have relatively high heights but lowish slp which would be defo be thundery given the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Fantastic ecm hot till the end and then a chance of thunderstorms!!could do with a thuunderstorm or two kinda miss them!!man this summer keeps on giving!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a cautionary note that highish height anomalies do not necessarily mean high slp. could see a spell where we have relatively high heights but lowish slp which would be defo be thundery given the time of year.

Which high height anomalies are you referring to there @bluearmy ?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a cautionary note that highish height anomalies do not necessarily mean high slp. could see a spell where we have relatively high heights but lowish slp which would be defo be thundery given the time of year.

Absolutely Blue :)

ECM looks both very warm and potentially thundery as we head into next week.

Fascinating! Beeb keep talking about breakdown this weekend but i'm not sure i'm seeing that- breakdown to me suggests an Atlantic attack, this looks just very warm and thundery !!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Which high height anomalies are you referring to there @bluearmy ?

The extended ens means are showing increasing high anomalies just to our east and low to our sw. However, they also show a swathe of low hpa anomalies from Ireland across to Russia at the same time 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely Blue :)

ECM looks both very warm and potentially thundery as we head into next week.

Fascinating! Beeb keep talking about breakdown this weekend but i'm not sure i'm seeing that- breakdown to me suggests an Atlantic attack, this looks just very warm and thundery !!

It's a breakdown in the sense that according to the GFS we will see a front clear the UK with sub-10C isotherms behind. What happens afterward is irelevant to the fact that a breakdown at least for some time has occurred. 

The Euro of course has no breakdown because the front dies as the primary low clears north and we then get a bit of a plume. 

ECMOPEU00_192_2.png

GFSOPEU06_192_2.png

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