Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Guest]

Well this will be an unpopular post - Intra-model inconsistency currently suggests a settled extended of very high temps in that 32-35C+ range appears unlikely. Even with ground conditions as they are we need almost perfect conditions, remember only 1 day since 2003 has recorded 35C+. We'll need uppers of 17-19C for a couple of days minimum to get there, all that being said I've always said if the UK was to make a run at 40C it would have to be in the last two weeks of July following an extended spell of dry warm weather, there might not be another chance for 20years if it doesn't happen this year so fingers crossed!!

Looking like high 20's most likely with the occasional 30C popping up in the SE early next week. Hopefully we'll get the sun back as well as it could quite gloomy (compared to recently) away from the extreme SE over the next few days. 

Just watch the 06Z GFS reintroduce a ridiculously hot plume now.....

 

[Frosty.]

It's a fabulous Ecm 00z ensemble mean if you love an increasingly hot blocked pattern..best mean yet in the build up to the next hot spell!

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well this will be an unpopular post - Intra-model inconsistency currently suggests a settled extended of very high temps in that 32-35C+ range appears unlikely. Even with ground conditions as they are we need almost perfect conditions, remember only 1 day since 2003 has recorded 35C+. We'll need uppers of 17-19C for a couple of days minimum to get there, all that being said I've always said if the UK was to make a run at 40C it would have to be in the last two weeks of July following an extended spell of dry warm weather, there might not be another chance for 20years if it doesn't happen this year so fingers crossed!!

Looking like high 20's most likely with the occasional 30C popping up in the SE early next week. Hopefully we'll get the sun back as well as it could quite gloomy (compared to recently) away from the extreme SE over the next few days. 

Just watch the 06Z GFS reintroduce a ridiculously hot plume now.....

 

Just to be pernickety - there have been 2 days that have exceeded 35c - 36.5c on the 19th July 2006 (Wisley) and 36.7c on the 1st July 2015 at Heathrow. But yeah, it's not a common temperature to exceed in the UK at all. That trough out west literally has to be in the perfect position to funnel a slack southerly up for 2-3 days to have a shot. It's very much an outside bet at the moment, but one to keep an eye on.

[mb018538]

6z trundling out and looking quite a bit different to the 00z - comparing the jet profiles around 150 hours they don't match up well at all. Still plenty of volatility going round as you'd expect.

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well this will be an unpopular post - Intra-model inconsistency currently suggests a settled extended of very high temps in that 32-35C+ range appears unlikely. Even with ground conditions as they are we need almost perfect conditions, remember only 1 day since 2003 has recorded 35C+. We'll need uppers of 17-19C for a couple of days minimum to get there, all that being said I've always said if the UK was to make a run at 40C it would have to be in the last two weeks of July following an extended spell of dry warm weather, there might not be another chance for 20years if it doesn't happen this year so fingers crossed!!

Looking like high 20's most likely with the occasional 30C popping up in the SE early next week. Hopefully we'll get the sun back as well as it could quite gloomy (compared to recently) away from the extreme SE over the next few days. 

Just watch the 06Z GFS reintroduce a ridiculously hot plume now.....

 

for me its about potential more then what the models show, and they were always going to have a degree of inconsistency in them.

there is a lot of heat in southern france/spain, it wouldnt take much of a synoptic move to head it northwards which is what some runs show,.

so potentially there is a good chance of some real heat in about a weeks time..

isnt it nice NOT to be discussing 'will it get hot', but 'how hot will it get'?... lol

[NUT]

Nothing ever the same after 6 hours  Now GFS gets rid of the really high temps and any energy and seems next weekend is actually going to be gorgeous

[Guest]

Rinse and repeat, GFS 06Z reverts back to the Azores high extension, almost no troughing and mid-high twenties for E+W. All very acceptable is a little unexciting after the past few runs from various models. 

[Djdazzle]

GFS 6z very different to the 0z after 144 with the positioning of the LP.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just to be pernickety - there have been 2 days that have exceeded 35c - 36.5c on the 19th July 2006 (Wisley) and 36.7c on the 1st July 2015 at Heathrow. But yeah, it's not a common temperature to exceed in the UK at all. That trough out west literally has to be in the perfect position to funnel a slack southerly up for 2-3 days to have a shot. It's very much an outside bet at the moment, but one to keep an eye on.

Yep, forgot about July 06.... not sure how given I was actually at Wisley that day.......

[mb018538]

On the 6z run, which is more high pressure dominated further south and east, a large swathe of southern and eastern England are 10+ days away from anything more than a few splashes of rain, with some places inevitably remaining dry throughout.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational is not a particularly hot run but it does show plenty of rebuilding high pressure, ergo, predominantly settled, warm / very warm with plenty of sunshine across most of the uk.☺

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well this will be an unpopular post - Intra-model inconsistency currently suggests a settled extended of very high temps in that 32-35C+ range appears unlikely. Even with ground conditions as they are we need almost perfect conditions, remember only 1 day since 2003 has recorded 35C+. We'll need uppers of 17-19C for a couple of days minimum to get there, all that being said I've always said if the UK was to make a run at 40C it would have to be in the last two weeks of July following an extended spell of dry warm weather, there might not be another chance for 20years if it doesn't happen this year so fingers crossed!!

Looking like high 20's most likely with the occasional 30C popping up in the SE early next week. Hopefully we'll get the sun back as well as it could quite gloomy (compared to recently) away from the extreme SE over the next few days. 

Just watch the 06Z GFS reintroduce a ridiculously hot plume now.....

 

20 years?? Or maybe next year since the greatest summers always come in twos.  75/76, 83/84, 95/97, 03/06

[Man With Beard]

On 18/07/2018 at 12:10, Man With Beard said:

Now this of course is far too simplistic. For areas between the trough and the ridge, there's a great deal of uncertainty. Will the trough invade the UK, or stay just west? Will it back west enough to put the UK in the "plume" position", or will it be further east and bring less hot and changeable conditions? Or will fresh pulses on the trough disintegrate as they hit the block, and split with yet more minor troughs heading into Europe?

24 hours on ... I think we've seen all of these in the op runs since I posted this!! We've had the hot, the very hot, and just occasionally the ugly. Such is the way when your patch marks the dividing line between an east/west battle!

Looking at the ECM clusters from this morning, no real change in this idea by D11

It's all in there; cluster 1 has the trough knocking on our door (warm SE, changeable NW), cluster 2 backs the continental influence westwards to the UK (hot for all), and cluster 3 is sort of between the two (probably warm to hot everywhere, occasionally changeable in NW, small chance of a front crossing for all). 

But like yesterday, it's the developments for the start of August that are really catching my eye - this is D15:

What we see here is all clusters edging the NE ridge backwards towards the UK. That could turn into a serious heat trap across the UK. This theme for early-August has been consistent on the ensembles for a few runs now.

So my thoughts: Next week is probably hot especially for the SE, with an outside chance of very hot weather. But an even better chance of very hot weather the week after  :0

[MR EXTREMES]

Great outputs still plenty of very warm weather 30c+ still achievable.

Gfs flapping around ukmo gem and ecm are still showing beautiful summery weather.

Most likely outcome to be lows out to our west block to our east so I wouldn't rule out a Spanish plume just yet.

Over the past week I've watch background signals and models closely and somewhat shocked that gfs model taken as gospel.

Stalling low to our west will aid in heat and possibly some instability.

Of on holiday Monday so the weather gods have come up with 3 aces so far.

Edited July 19, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is superb, especially across the southern half of the uk where it becomes hot and stays hot..even very warm / hot at the end with much more power to add!☺

Edited July 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

20 years?? Or maybe next year since the greatest summers always come in twos.  75/76, 83/84, 95/97, 03/06

thats very tentetive and i dont call 95/97, 03/06 "in twos"...

nor would i call 97 as good as 96!

and what about 89, 90, 91?..

however, this long hot dry summer is long overdue, it wouldnt surprise me if over the next few summers - we get decent ones.

[Methuselah]

How about that other famous couplet 1947 & 1959, mushy?

[Guest]

The GFS 06Z Ops run is pretty much in the bottom third of the ensembles from the middle of next week, very few solutions off anything below until the end of the month however the ensemble grouping widen more notably the further west you are. 

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

24 hours on ... I think we've seen all of these in the op runs since I posted this!! We've had the hot, the very hot, and just occasionally the ugly. Such is the way when your patch marks the dividing line between an east/west battle!

Looking at the ECM clusters from this morning, no real change in this idea by D11

It's all in there; cluster 1 has the trough knocking on our door (warm SE, changeable NW), cluster 2 backs the continental influence westwards to the UK (hot for all), and cluster 3 is sort of between the two (probably warm to hot everywhere, occasionally changeable in NW, small chance of a front crossing for all). 

But like yesterday, it's the developments for the start of August that are really catching my eye - this is D15:

What we see here is all clusters edging the NE ridge backwards towards the UK. That could turn into a serious heat trap across the UK. This theme for early-August has been consistent on the ensembles for a few runs now.

So my thoughts: Next week is probably hot especially for the SE, with an outside chance of very hot weather. But an even better chance of very hot weather the week after  :0

the 8-14 day 500mb charts also suggest a strengthening scandinavian high with a little westward progress over the 6-10 day chart.

the current gfs is nothing to worry about, the expected plume is in fi anyway so the odd run that ignores it or plays it down is to be expected.  the anomaly charts do not really support the 06z and are consistent in suggesting a more southerly/plume type event occurring.  but even IF the gfs 06z verifies, so what? its still producing great summery conditions we yearned for over most of the last 12 summers!

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How about that other famous couplet 1947 & 1959, mushy?

not a clue, i wasnt around! lol

(well i was 2 in 59)

[mb018538]

6z op was again towards the bottom end of things, with a higher number favouring the plume than not. Still all to play for.

Interestingly, Chris Fawkes has just done the lunchtime forecast and said they expect 33c as a maximum next week. Looks like a goldilocks forecast from the output we've seen - not cold (28-30c), not extremely hot (34c+), somewhere in the middle (31-33c). Of course this is all nonsensical - 28c is still hot, 33c is a bake whatever way you paint things.

[gottolovethisweather]

16 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good evening folks....! Looks like some very interesting weather for next week as the the Atlantic  fires up against some  hot continental air ......Models really struggling with this scenario  but potential Fireworks  and flash flooding making the news next week rather than the heat. ....Watch this space....

6

6

Or BOTH.

 

35 to 36c on the cards for a one or two locations I'd suggest. Much respect to SM for highlighting this probability with one of his rare summer forays into the forum, way back earlier this month.

Edited July 19, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[Badgers01]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

It's a fabulous Ecm 00z ensemble mean if you love an increasingly hot blocked pattern..best mean yet in the build up to the next hot spell!

 

 

definitely staying warm but seemingly more of a westerly influence and no record breaking temps...

[Man With Beard]

Mind you, something very odd is about to happen ... is it actually going to rain in my neck of the woods tomorrow for the first time in 51 days?? 

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

definitely staying warm but seemingly more of a westerly influence and no record breaking temps...

Although record temperatures are unlikely to be broken (that's why they're records?) I don't see, either from trying to average-out the models or from the MetO's further outlooks, much in the way of any real 'westerly' influence...If anything, a long-fetch southerly draw looks more likely, IMO. So far.