Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

So the ECM ensemble mean, here at T192, 216 and 240:

There is a brick wall of heat in the way of anything, I would suggest,  and this will only become clearer closer to T0, summer 2018 rages on, and on...

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So the ECM ensemble mean, here at T192, 216 and 240:

There is a brick wall of heat in the way of anything, I would suggest,  and this will only become clearer closer to T0, summer 2018 rages on, and on...

As means go, that's showing really good potential for more very warm / hot weather, especially for the s / e / se☺

[ANYWEATHER]

Good evening folks....! Looks like some very interesting weather for next week as the the Atlantic  fires up against some  hot continental air ......Models really struggling with this scenario  but potential Fireworks  and flash flooding making the news next week rather than the heat. ....Watch this space....

[CheesepuffScott]

All eyes on GFS 18z, wonder if it'll continue to go with the scorcher for next week

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

What I think we can say is after the past few warm days heat will intensify  into next week according to gfs and ecm  how hot is open to debate  however a minimum should be 30c  in the hottest areas  which should be wonderful for most  further runs needed however   mid to high 30s cannot be ruled out from the evolution we are seeing   unicorn dolphins however i think is a little optimistic 

Yes an injection of warm humid air will enter the mix imported continental warmth, however, its then a battle between the atlantic and heights to the NE. Suggestion may see a cut off low anchor down to our west and approach SW regions.

The key is the behaviour of the azores high I feel, if it attempts to ridge in behind the cut off low then we could see high pressure build through the UK again, however, I expect it won't and it will then depend on the position of the jet and whether we see trough action sneak through.

As for projected temps, I can't see low 30's early next week for many, given we will be in a broadly westerly flow still, indeed BBC has just removed its 32 degree temp for west midlands, high 20's now - it did seem a mistake to me. 

Longer term may well see the scandi high split with a trough sinking SE through Finland and NW Russia, what this would do is enable a deep rooted plume, but sharpen the trough to our west I suspect, and a thundery firework display could see July out.. before the atlantic or the azores high noses in again..

Won't be viewing the models now for 10 days.

[shetland islands]

Metoffice 10 day forecast highlights the uncertainty for the weather next week onwards and they seem to be going with their model more than the others. This weekend isn t going to be as hot 28 C rather than 32 C being talked about earlier in the week. It will also be cloudy, so not clear blue skies. The further SE you are the better it'll be, but it could be a cloudy and quite dull weekend and start to the week across NI, Scotland and parts of NW England. 

Edited July 18, 2018 by shetland islands

[CheesepuffScott]

Thursday and Friday looking pretty similar on 18z to the 12z run. Around 30C for most in England and Wales, into the mid 30s for East Anglia and London area.

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the 18z it's how the low drops at day 8 which is important because it for a a high to our north east which merges with an existing one.

 

Unfortunately the setup actually looks fairly realistic so our best case scenario now may be for everything to be backed south west which often happens due to GFS shunting too much energy. This would at least probably kill the 15c uppers and raise pressure to reduce humidity.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO

   

   

Certainly more influence from the high compared to previous runs, in fact a good chunk of ENgland and Wales are hot to start next week and we can see how high pressure could rebuild more strongly from the south in response to the sharpening Atlantic trough.

GFS 

   

   

Oddly enough is flatter than the UKMO up to mid week and how it rebuilds the high later on it will push a front eastwards with a brief glance of fresher Atlantic air before the warmth returns from the south. It is a simlar evolution to the UKMO but with a brief lull around midweek.

It still looks like a chance of something significant in terms of heat could happen later next week into the following weekend, just a case of watching for more consistency in the output in that timescale.

[shaky]

Ukmo is miles better today and gfs continues wer it left off from.last night hot ane humid is the name of the game!!!anyway goin for a run so i can be back in time for a furnace of an ecm

[mb018538]

Ukmo and gfs both showing the sharp trough out west again today - meaning the back end of next week towards the weekend is once again showing the potential for 35c+

When you thought this summer couldn’t get any more bonkers....we may not have seen anything yet.

[shaky]

Is it me or do both ukmo and ecm look more amplified around 72 to 96 hours today!!does not look as flat today as it has done for the last few runs!lets see what difference it makes on the ecm for later on in the run!!

[shaky]

You couldnt make it up!!ukmo now looks the best at 144 hours then i say gfs!!ecm the worst lol!!

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

You couldnt make it up!!ukmo now looks the best at 144 hours then i say gfs!!ecm the worst lol!!

EC 850s look very toasty mate.

Warm/very warm out to 192 hours.

72

96

120

And it stays thereafter away from the north west .

Edited July 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Lovely EC det with temps well into the late 20s widely as we move through the weekend and right through next week it stays very warm for many.

For London UK raw suggests

sunday onwards-

28

31

30

29

31

29

29

I'd suggest thats very warm to hot ..

Edited July 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

ECM is fine - just as UKMO was a bit on the low side and now looks hotter today, ECM has gone from the very hot down to just hot....it's only run to run variations that's all. The general picture hasn't changed overnight.

UKMO looks better as it has a sharper Atlantic trough scooping up more heat....but ECM is warm enough.

[shaky]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 850s look very toasty mate.

Warm/very warm out to 192 hours.

72

96

120

And it stays thereafter away from the north west .

Yes in the end i guess for england anyway its high twenties all the way to the end!!sunday monday and tuesday look toasty to me?

[SMU]

The ECM next week just becomes progressively hotter & hotter - by 240 I imagine were low - maybe mid 30s

The prospect of any records or anything North of 35c will depend on that optimal southerly / SE flow introducing the 18-20c isotherm...

Thought process being slow in > slow out...

We would need 3-4 more days post 240 of that very slack southerly flow to be in with a chance ....

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ECM next week just becomes progressively hotter & hotter - by 240 I imagine were low - maybe mid 30s

The prospect of any records or anything North of 35c will depend on that optimal southerly / SE flow introducing the 18-20c isotherm...

Thought process being slow in > slow out...

We would need 3-4 more days post 240 of that very slack southerly flow to be in with a chance ....

^Nice to see this chap posting in summer. Have chosen a couple of GFS temperature charts for next week and this shows some good, widespread heat too. I'd say no need to worry about records as it has been such an exceptional summer overall.

 

[Singularity]

Actually, believe it or not, the 00z ECM drifts a very shallow low across England during Friday, limiting temps to the mid-20s away from the Southeast. Remnant cloud from this keeps Saturday from getting much hotter.

BUT this run is unbelievably messy for midweek onward; the trough out west doesn’t really come together until all the way out to day 10, despite the retreat of the Azores High kicking in around day 5.

So it doesn’t seem a very credible run to me.

Ironically, the 00z GFS has the opposite issue; the trough comes together so vigorously that it pushes the Scandi High east a bit and brings a very fast thundery breakdown to the particularly hot weather. Great for health sakes, but I’m not convinced the Atlantic trough will be that strong; the tropical signals favour something weaker - but probably not as weak as ECM.

 

The middle ground between theee two runs is actually the one that would bring a longer and hotter spell of weather. So my concern from a health perspective remains as it was yesterday evening.

[Methuselah]

Going by what the models are now indicating, I see no reason at all why 35C shouldn't be reached somewhere? As for the 38.5? Aye, I think that is also possible...but it will take 'Goldilocks' conditions to achieve it...

What was the max during 2015's two-day-wonder plume?

Edited July 19, 2018 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

I'm thinking along those lines too @Singularity - the upper ridge over scandi is one of the strongest ever recorded, perhaps the models are trying to erase this a bit quickly.
The Atlantic conveyor may encounter more resistance & inertia than thought.

Personally, I'm not too fussed about mega heat. If it can hold out as just plain old hot until the month end and give us a shout at either the hottest month on record or somehow 20c CET that would be more noteworthy! All depends on where the heat boundary sets up....if it holds back west then perhaps a shout.

After that August can do what it wants, pour with rain for all I care! It will have been the best June & July combination I've had in my lifetime.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Going by what the models are now indicating, I see no reason at all why 35C shouldn't be reached somewhere? As for the 38.5? Aye, I think that is also possible...but it will take 'Goldilocks' conditions to achieve it...

What was the max during 2015's two-day-wonder plume?

32.5c June 30th and 36.7c July 1st both @ Heathrow  - the month then proceeded to be terrible!

[shaky]

19 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Actually, believe it or not, the 00z ECM drifts a very shallow low across England during Friday, limiting temps to the mid-20s away from the Southeast. Remnant cloud from this keeps Saturday from getting much hotter.

BUT this run is unbelievably messy for midweek onward; the trough out west doesn’t really come together until all the way out to day 10, despite the retreat of the Azores High kicking in around day 5.

So it doesn’t seem a very credible run to me.

Ironically, the 00z GFS has the opposite issue; the trough comes together so vigorously that it pushes the Scandi High east a bit and brings a very fast thundery breakdown to the particularly hot weather. Great for health sakes, but I’m not convinced the Atlantic trough will be that strong; the tropical signals favour something weaker - but probably not as weak as ECM.

 

The middle ground between theee two runs is actually the one that would bring a longer and hotter spell of weather. So my concern from a health perspective remains as it was yesterday evening.

So on that note your thinking more ukmo 00z from this morning!that for me looks a perfect fit of your analysis!!

[Frosty.]

Well the ukmo 00z looks great if you like it hot..nice upgrade from last evening..I'm thinking 30c + next week is looking the form