Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Singularity]

Really interesting how GFS has let go of the little trough extension down to our west Sun-Mon. While this keeps the ridge flatter, it allows for more ridging from the SW to build across us as the next trough dives south while a good way west of us. 

Thats a great way to get a Scandi High to reach far enough SW to cover most or all of the UK. Throw in hot air from the continent and unusually dry soils and the way the run unfolds makes a lot of sense (unfortunately, from a health perspective).

Given how similar the day 10 GFS 12z is to the day 10 GEFS 06z mean, it’s not as outlandish a solution as many might at first think.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Singularity

[SMU]

Afternoon All

So the weekend shows a little weaker presentation in terms of Max temps with tops up around 27-28c ( initially progged @31-32 ) - All due to a little more 'Westerlyness' in the flow -

The real talking point is the 12z operational showing what would certainly be the most optimal chance of the year for proper 'plumed' heat & no doubt a chance of 35c & an outside / very slim notion of 39c / 40c.

Those numbers are of course at the real extreme end of the envelope however we have been there before & certainly the current dryness of the continent & UK may support an additional 1-2c in terms of absolute maxima ..

 

Whilst these numbers are certainly available it will take a very tailored flow & conditions for the uk to approach the record- most importantly the sustained period of >17/18c uppers mixed down to the surface & minimal wind as well as no cloud cover ( ideally )

Lets see how it develops but even if we were only to reach low 30s the prospect of a 20c CET draws ever closer...

[Mike Poole]

Guys, I've got a 20!

Just the SE corner, but you never know.

ECM promising at T168, let's see where this goes!

Edited July 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

There's lots of lovely charts to cherry pick from the GEFS 12z!..phew it's a bit hot in here

[shaky]

Ecm fantastic so far up to 168 hours!!england and wales hot and humid till then!!still few frames to go!!looks more amplified then gfs and ukmo!!COULD be a scorcher this run!

[Mike Poole]

Yes, ECM looking good for Jackpot run for the SE, here T192:

[mb018538]

As above, ecm holding firm, I think ukmo is a bit pessimistic really. The options towards the end of next week are frightening really.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

still need to see the last one, where does that red stuff go?

Edit. Here's the answer:

could be some really hot air wafting our way thereafter I would suggest.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Remember 850s held in situ at around 16-18C are enough to break records

Stationary air is the key ingredient ( a bit like winter minima )

[mb018538]

Ecm out to 240 and another one for the bank and a big step towards the first 20c CET month. Amazing.

[Frosty.]

WOW Great T+240 Ecm 12z..blocked and hot!

Edited July 18, 2018 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember 850s held in situ at around 16-18C are enough to break records

Stationary air is the key ingredient ( a bit like winter minima )

Absolutely and the 70s 80s were very much import heat then lid building more home grown heat.

2003 was pretty much like this.

Amazing stuff of on holiday Monday.

[mb018538]

The 38.5c in 2003 had the still airmass, plus 850s over 20c:

[Mike Poole]

GFS parallel at T216, has the dragon clearly pictured alright but it seems to blowing out of its backside. Weird, I didn't think dragons did this?

 

[Allseasons-Si]

the ECM 240 is another blowtorch run,here it is

the gfs was a crazy run and peeps would look like this at the end of next week if it came off,look at the theta e chart at 240

what a fantastic summer we are havin and long may it continue

although i would be on afters next week and it would be unbearable.

 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, draztik said:

this is utterly ridiculous. Why dont any of you people challenge this? bonkers and entirely misleading. 

Eh the gfs shows 37c next week  so he is only commentating on what this model shows 

[Uncle_Barty]

That run probably won't verify, but the general synoptic setup in the various models are showing some blowtorch possibilities. I would put it no stronger than that at the moment.

SM is not suggesting that it's nailed on, but it's not entirely without support in the ensembles.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, draztik said:

this is utterly ridiculous. Why dont any of you people challenge this? bonkers and entirely misleading. 

It's not ridiculous though is it, I'm staring at some astonishing charts showing mid to potentially upper 30's celsius potential..I've posted some today. I would say there is currently a very good chance of a major heatwave across southern uk in the near future.☺

Edited July 18, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

To my eye, if anything, EC day 10 is promoting a continuation of heat, possibly an intensification!!

[fine wine]

8 minutes ago, draztik said:

this is utterly ridiculous. Why dont any of you people challenge this? bonkers and entirely misleading. 

Draztik, we appreciate you are new to this but Steve has been here many years and is a well respected member of the forum. I think the clue in his post might be the use of the words 'Outside/very slim'. Probably best to read the post properly first and digest what it says before making a comment which quite frankly makes you look a little silly. And as others hace mentioned he is commenting on the current run.

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, draztik said:

this is utterly ridiculous. Why dont any of you people challenge this? bonkers and entirely misleading. 

the gfs 12z might well be extreme

but other gfs runs, the ecm, and the anomalies all point in unioson to a southerly draw later next week.

my favoured noaa charts are for 4 days now consistent and if anything have inched towards a more southerly mean upper flow.

next week will get hot... that is pretty much certain, the only question is.... how hot?

[weirpig]

What I think we can say is after the past few warm days heat will intensify  into next week according to gfs and ecm  how hot is open to debate  however a minimum should be 30c  in the hottest areas  which should be wonderful for most  further runs needed however   mid to high 30s cannot be ruled out from the evolution we are seeing   unicorn dolphins however i think is a little optimistic 

Edited July 18, 2018 by weirpig

[Captain Shortwave]

26 minutes ago, draztik said:

People want to come here to learn, not see fanciful lunacy. 40C? Really? 

It amazes me every year. When the GFS is showing cool weather, we are told to ignore and disregard such a 'cold outlier'. Yet when its showing lunacy, we are told to expect it.... madness.

Well we have;

1) A huge Euro/Scandinavian ridge with hot air being drawn into the arctic circle and beyond.

2) An Atlantic trough which also looks to become omnipresent, the jetstream running SW/NE across the north west of the UK.

That broad set up certainly makes a plume event a possibility and more widespread heatwave conditions cannot be ruled out in the last few days of July. It only takes one low to stall and sink south in the Atlantic like on the GFS and we get roasted. It might or might not happen but to dismiss it entirely looks unwise at the moment and frankly it more brought on about desire than the evidence we have in front of us.

As for the ECM, sums up the metoffice thoughts with the East hot next week and the west a little cooler and fresher with showers (There would likely be some kind of dividing line where some thunderstorms could break out). Week 2 suggests again that high pressure could begin to dominate more widely but again that is too far away to make a judgement call.

ECM ens to day 10

      

Inconclusive in terms of whether the ridge or trough will dominate, a sort of in between where the east is warmest and the west has more of an Atlantic influence though again nowhere would be cool under this set up unless you get very unlucky under a frontal system.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

Amazed at the last page of comments actually, the point is there is a real chance of weather records being broken in the next week or two, of course there is uncertainty, if there wasn't our hobby wouldn't even exist.  Shortly we'll have the ECM ensembles, but before that, this is looking most interesting on the FIM9 12z at T204:

 

[Mokidugway]

Not to mention   some storm potential