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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Oh my God. Surely that would be 38/39 (maybe 40?) for some places considering it is always undercooked. 2003 under threat. 

ukmaxtemp-6.thumb.png.411c5d8087bce3e9c43af3d03e385873.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 12z GFS suggests the type of heat I wouldn't particularly like to experience and I'm sure a lot of the UK also wouldn't like to experience. Would be hard to do anything remotely active with high humidity and temperatures mid to upper 30s. Erring on the side of dangerous heat. Unfortunately it would be lethal for a few people.

I have never seen GFS raw temps that high on an op run within that range in my 15 years of model watching. Unlikely to happen and probably a warm outlier, but the potential is certainly there next week for some very high temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

OK this is REALLY just for fun, but the end of this epic GFS 12z, has a scenario with a heat pump to the west and huge heat only just to the south, that could threaten all time UK temperature records!  

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image.thumb.jpg.baf14c08ab3eee7226f20427640a3e77.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Only mad dogs and englishmen would go out in the midday sun if these Gfs 12z verify.....35c at noon!...easily be into the low 100's F at 4pm!:crazy:..great eye candy!..a thunderstorm would be gratefully received!?️?️☔

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

12_240_ukthickness850.png

12_240_ukcape.png

12_252_mslp850.png

12_264_uk2mtmp.png

12_264_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well next week would be a nice taster of things to come with 36/37c. As week after I’m back to Spain for a month. We’re temps are currently 39/40c 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Dayum these charts are insane! High 30's dare I say possible 40? (If they came off) Plus looks like unstable air would come with it as well due to the high levels and cape plus precipitation. Will be interesting to watch the models over the next week or so

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A tougher call for week 2, some serious ensemble evidence to suggest that a major heatwave will breakout over a large part of Europe, the UK is right on the edge so we could see no real heat (though I suspect conditions will still remain above average and showery), a major heatwave which could be of July 2006 or even August 2003 proportions, or glanicing blows with temperatures still likely to reach higher than what we have currently seen.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?18-12   EDM1-192.GIF?18-12   EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

Tough call longer term here though the further south east you go, the better chance of seeing hot conditions prevail.

GFS 12z, jeez that 37C is right over me, I really don't want my first child to potentially be born on the hottest day ever recorded in the UK!!

Highly improbable, but not impossible given the charts above, plenty of wiggle room to shift the the ridge into a furnace position, or of course leave us rather wet.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Just as you shouldn’t get too down on the ukmo run, equally you shouldn’t go too overboard with the gfs run - which will undoubtedly be a hot outlier. As we’re going to be right on the battleground between the cool and hot air, expect wild run variations as were getting from run to run.

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Yep the 12z GFS run has annihilated meteocil 

0849B5A5-29C0-4AF3-B7FB-1F84F0182B8B.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
41 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS doing it’s usual of underestimating day time maximum temperatures

74194CD5-972C-46E5-9F3C-8307E7F6C5A8.png

37c at midnight

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
29 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS doing it’s usual of underestimating day time maximum temperatures

74194CD5-972C-46E5-9F3C-8307E7F6C5A8.png

And even at that its an underestimarion. I nearly fainted. The record just about smashed, adding how the gfs undercooks the highs. But if that 40c cant be out of question 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

37c at midnight

Charts are in 12 hour intervals that far out. So it’s the maximum value during the preceding 12 hours.

Similar values 24 hours later.

EF3C7C67-E332-4F94-A6A3-215D9FFA8AC8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

37c at midnight

I don't think that is possible, maybe the chart is the max over 6hrs like the one on Meteoceil?  In which case it is maybe 7pm BST?  Just a thought, maybe more realistic?

Edit Matt beat me to it, and with a more correct answer!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Yep, as others have said it’s a maximum in that 12 hour period. Ridiculous either way, but if there’s going to be a year to make another run at 100f, and a crazy 40c, then it’s 2018. Western Europe is one big bake this summer.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

begining to gain both momentumn-and support....

via ens/annoms.

some truly ridiculous values into mid/late next week....

some records smashed i would 'likely' assume.

!!!!

temp4 (1).png

MT8_London_ens (3).png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

The mean, low pressure WNW and high pressure ENE. Result? Op probably one of the hottest options but maybe not a complete outlier. 

ADC4DC4F-3CC4-453B-9C8B-81AE95C5DC48.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean clearly indicates a hot spell is on the way with a scandi high and a trough held at bay to the west with the continental heat pumping north across the uk..could be the best spell of summer yet and it's up against some stiff competition but I think we will see a blazing hot spell..the supporting evidence is growing!:shok:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Bring it on I say. Only thing we’re missing this Summer  is serious heat. 38c+ is probably an overestimation but looking at the charts in general, there’s certainly a very good chance of serious heat in the near future. 

Great to see there’s still no rainfall and the settled/warm run is continuing. Looked in doubt a few days ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Dangerous dangerous heat on this 12zgfs!!!after a slow start this run could actually get close to 40 degrees lol!!surely wont happen like this but it would be a fitting way to end this gorgeous summer and am sayin that this early lol with still a month and a half to go of summer!!madness!i must add this must be one of the greatest gfs runs for heat ever seen lol!!

You said this run was a downgrade.Maybe best wait till the run has finished before commenting on it again 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

Surprisingly that run isn't actually top of the pile for some areas of the country for here one of them manages +19 850 hpa temps and nearly half of them show 14/15 850hpa on the 27th which is impressive seems like there is a reasonable amount of support in the ensembles for this scenario,although it is still 8/9 days out so we have to keep our expectations low in case it doesn't come off but it would be impressive indeed. Imagine the scenes now if the pub run ups the ante even more :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Just spent a lovely week in the UK...beautiful summer weather just perfect...judging by these charts i left just at the right time..will be some sticky beds coming up :drunk-emoji:

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