Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

I think tonight's 12s will clear some things up and bring some clarity on the potential for heat, plumes, thunder and all sorts for next week.  First out ICON at T180:

On the back of the 0z runs, I think there will be a smattering of really hot runs on the individual ensembles and maybe the ops too on the current suite, with high pressure over Scandi and low pressure in the Atlantic, bring them on!  GFS rolling now...

Edited July 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

Dowgrades so far on the 12z ukmo and gfs for next week!!high not as amplified and low slightly further south!!still dry but more boring and warm/hot than the real heat we were looking at earlier!!maybe the ukmo is not off on one then!!

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Dowgrades so far on the 12z ukmo and gfs for next week!!high not as amplified and low slightly further south!!still dry but more boring and warm/hot than the real heat we were looking at earlier!!maybe the ukmo is not off on one then!!

Wouldn’t worry too much - could be intra run variation...check the gfs ensembles, 500mb anomalies and ecm for a better overall picture...they all still look fine. 

[SizzlingHeat]

Great looking 12z so far from GFS. 

Just now, mb018538 said:

Wouldn’t worry too much - could be intra run variation...check the gfs ensembles, 500mb anomalies and ecm for a better overall picture...they all still look fine. 

Yes. UKMO been all over the shot lately but GFS showing temps up to 30 on Sunday in the south

[SizzlingHeat]

If the 12z GFS is a downgrade, then perhaps sunshine and 30c+ next wednesday and a Jetstream heading north is not for you  

[danm]

While many of us would like to see some exceptional heat, I don’t think we can complain if it’s sunny and “only” 30c. 

Edited July 18, 2018 by danm

[Mike Poole]

GEM!  Blow torch run. Here T174:

GFS same time, I cannot see what the complaints are about!

If one of these runs is to go on to be a belter, my bet is GFS...

Edited July 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[MR EXTREMES]

Gfs is fair bit different from the 6z.

Corrected slightly further west and north.

That low to our west is hitting the buffer.

Jet stream remains to the north.

[Djdazzle]

You will always get a bit of intra run variation. Very small changes to the LP position will have big impacts further down.

12z looks very good though.

[SizzlingHeat]

The GFS really is showing furnace heat from mid week next week. *IF* the 12z was anything close to the mark with above 15c uppers and sunshine I would imagine quite widely into the mid thirties widely across central and southern England. HOWEVER this time yesterday it was showing a dartboard low, so much caution is required and far from nailed. However, it's looking sensational for mid week next week according to this run. GFS temps at 3pm next Thursday showing widely 32c and we all know the GFS is renowned for undercooking temps..... 

[shaky]

And then a day or two later the extreme heat arrives from the south!!this run is even better later on in the week than the 06z was!!

[Weather-history]

GFS 12z op run looks sticky and hot, plumey with thunder possibilities late next week 

[Mike Poole]

18C uppers into the SE at T222!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS 12z suggests the record could very much be under threat. Dangerous heatwave conditions if this was to come off. 31-32c by 9am... 

[Decemberof2010]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

18C uppers into the SE at T222!

What sort of temp would that be at the surface? 36c? Great run from GFS

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

18C uppers into the SE at T222!

34-35C on GFS 12z for that area.

[Leo97t]

How can people complain. One of the hottest operational runs you'll ever see. Temperatures into the mid thirties in the south east

[Mike Poole]

Wowsers!

[SizzlingHeat]

Next Saturday 28th. (Just for fun as it won't happen) would no doubt bring temperatures of 38-39c inland south East England. The 2003 record would be close to being beaten

[Craig84]

That day 10 chart from the 12 gfs is seriously hot! 

[Man With Beard]

Shades of 2003 on the GFS 12Z tonight. It's possible! 

[shaky]

Dangerous dangerous heat on this 12zgfs!!!after a slow start this run could actually get close to 40 degrees lol!!surely wont happen like this but it would be a fitting way to end this gorgeous summer and am sayin that this early lol with still a month and a half to go of summer!!madness!i must add this must be one of the greatest gfs runs for heat ever seen lol!!

Edited July 18, 2018 by shaky

[Decemberof2010]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Next Saturday 28th. (Just for fun as it won't happen) would no doubt bring temperatures of 38-39c inland south East England. The 2003 record would be close to being beaten

And a few records further north would be under threat too. I think the record here in Leeds is 34c. 

[Craig84]

Goodness me.

With the Gfs underplaying of temps, that’s a record breaking chart. 

Edited July 18, 2018 by Craig84

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 12z GFS suggests the type of heat I wouldn't particularly like to experience and I'm sure a lot of the UK also wouldn't like to experience. Would be hard to do anything remotely active with high humidity and temperatures mid to upper 30s. Erring on the side of dangerous heat. Unfortunately it would be lethal for a few people.