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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

High Pressure shows to be holding back the Atlantic more into Wk2 on this mornings GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm continues on a really hot note this morning up to 144 hours!!gfs is a massive improvement up to 200 hours with hot weather locked and loaded!!ukmo on the other hand i dunno what its been on recently but it does not look as good!!high pressure further south and that low to the northwest gets very close to us!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z operational speaks for itself.. very warm / hot  / humid continental / plumy with plenty of sunshine and the risk of some thunderstorms at times..trough anchored out west, heights to the east / northeast..Beautiful!?️?️

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00_252_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

All looks fine and dandy this morning - trough sharpening up in the Atlantic, staying very warm or hot in many places. Can't be bad!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS/ECM look fabulous this morning!!

I'm so excited about the potential heat and storms next week!!!

Really hope we get a plume and some instability - 

Looking at EC 850s thats some serious heat being dragged up from Spain next week, Benelux looks ideally placed for some astonishingly high temps, mid 30s perhaps!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/ECM look fabulous this morning!!

I'm so excited about the potential heat and storms next week!!!

Really hope we get a plume and some instability - 

Looking at EC 850s thats some serious heat being dragged up from Spain next week, Benelux looks ideally placed for some astonishingly high temps, mid 30s perhaps!!!

 

Next week could actually be hotter than all the heat we have had so far over the last few months!!its crazy!!

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/ECM look fabulous this morning!!

I'm so excited about the potential heat and storms next week!!!

Really hope we get a plume and some instability - 

Looking at EC 850s thats some serious heat being dragged up from Spain next week, Benelux looks ideally placed for some astonishingly high temps, mid 30s perhaps!!!

 

Well according to the 'pluim' we get over here in the Netherlands indeed 30c's. Sometimes EC underestimates the temperature, especially with lot's of sunshine, so it can even get hotter than shown. July 2018 could be the driest and sunniest july 'ever'. 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

nice to see the ops catching up with what the noaa anomaly charts have been suggesting for several days now , lol.

they have consistently suggested the atlantic trough entering from the northwest then stalling to our west, giving the uk a mean southwesterly upper flow . this does allow for a plume, albeit transitory, it also allows for a southerly sourced surface flow i believe, so the heat the ops now show has some traction..  the troughing sat over the uk like previous gfs runs had suggested, was unlikely, as was the more progressive ridging some ecm runs suggested. the anoms also show the building, intensifying, scandinavian high, with hints of it extending westwards to meet an eastern building ridge off the displaced azores high.

personally, im pretty happy now that the gfs, ecm and noaa's are in broad agreement, that the pattern they suggest  for 7 - 10 days time will become manifest. however the detail might change as a battle between the hot air in the east, and cooler fresher air in the west , takes place over the uk... there is potential for some very big thunderstorms and heavy rain. but whether we get heat or cooler fresher conditions will depend, as ever, on the relative strengths of the incoming trough to our west, and the intensifying scandinavian high to our northeast.

noaa charts from a few days ago (and are still consistent) with the 00z gfs and 00z ecm @ 240.

 

814day.03.gif

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ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

GFSOPEU00_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/ECM look fabulous this morning!!

I'm so excited about the potential heat and storms next week!!!

Really hope we get a plume and some instability - 

Looking at EC 850s thats some serious heat being dragged up from Spain next week, Benelux looks ideally placed for some astonishingly high temps, mid 30s perhaps!!!

 

True and perhaps with a few adjustments that more extreme heat could be dragged towards the UK...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS6Z really ramping up the furnace next week!!!

Fine margins though, the low stalls in just about the perfect position to drag up those sizzling uppers from Espana!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS6Z really ramping up the furnace next week!!!

Fine margins though, the low stalls in just about the perfect position to drag up those sizzling uppers from Espana!!

It's a cracker..hope it happens!?️?️

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

The real hot temps +30c seem to be getting pushed further back. First, it was the beginning of next week, then it was mid-week, now it's the end of next week.  I certainly wouldn't put all my money on very hot temps next week and would be inclined to have a small wager on LP influencing our weather more and more IMO. We shall see though. 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

GFS 6z doesn't look as toasty as the 00z as the heat seems to be more concentrated across Eastern England on the 6z (Mon to Wed), But becoming more widespread from Thursday & Friday (Pushed back again).

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
18 minutes ago, shaky said:

Unbelievable gfs 06z!!hot and sunny from saturday all the way till nearly the end lol!!

Yes it's a great run further ahead, and this week shows plenty of warm / very warm weather too, especially further s / se with 28/29c on thurs / fri..which is hot.☺

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 06z mean chart at 240 hrs.

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

 

Seems fairly agreed at day 10 this morning for an upper trough to amplify and slow out west as it comes up against blocking over Scandi, now the question is how much heat can we draw form the south? 06z GFS shows the 15C T850 line creeping in across the far SE day 10, but we could see 30C+ before then later next week towards the SE. The heat just doesn't look like relenting in the S/SE at least. Whether we can tap into some serious heat (mid-30s) remains to be seen though and whether the heat can get further north across the UK too, depending on how close the upper trough edges in from the west, too close and big heat will be confined to the near continent.

00z EPS mean day 10

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.3c42b54abbe9183c825ff308e0197c77.png

06z GEFS mean day 10

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.f5f1c3a389c5d87fee5d2c24ac5332bd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
46 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

The real hot temps +30c seem to be getting pushed further back. First, it was the beginning of next week, then it was mid-week, now it's the end of next week.  I certainly wouldn't put all my money on very hot temps next week and would be inclined to have a small wager on LP influencing our weather more and more IMO. We shall see though. 

That's like complaining you've only got 5cm of snow instead of 10cm! :D

It's likely temps will be in the 30c region regardless - does it really matter too much if it's 30c or 33c in the grand scheme of things? It's staying hot, that's good enough for most people into the first week of the summer holidays.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A lot of spikes to 30C between 23rd and 27th July on the latest ECM ensemble graphs for London (that's midday/6pm temps, not maximum temps)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

(note- this chart will automatically update at midnight tonight)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

The real hot temps +30c seem to be getting pushed further back. First, it was the beginning of next week, then it was mid-week, now it's the end of next week.  I certainly wouldn't put all my money on very hot temps next week and would be inclined to have a small wager on LP influencing our weather more and more IMO. We shall see though. 

They haven't been pushed back...30C certainly still on the cards for Monday and Tuesday in the south and high 20s for much of England. The GFS 06Z actually looks hotter in its latter stages as well than previous runs. No signs of anything cooler that's for sure.

Inclined to have a small wager on LP? On what grounds? It certainly can't be on previous form given this summer so far! The opposite has often happened to what you suggest- ie. this week.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
22 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Seems fairly agreed at day 10 this morning for an upper trough to amplify and slow out west as it comes up against blocking over Scandi, now the question is how much heat can we draw form the south? 06z GFS shows the 15C T850 line creeping in across the far SE day 10, but we could see 30C+ before then later next week towards the SE. The heat just doesn't look like relenting in the S/SE at least. Whether we can tap into some serious heat (mid-30s) remains to be seen though and whether the heat can get further north across the UK too, depending on how close the upper trough edges in from the west, too close and big heat will be confined to the near continent.

00z EPS mean day 10

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.3c42b54abbe9183c825ff308e0197c77.png

06z GEFS mean day 10

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.f5f1c3a389c5d87fee5d2c24ac5332bd.png

to add to this most models to keep the azores to scandi heights going,

and towards the end of the gem ecm and gefs all have heat pumped up from the southeast or south.

looking at scandinavia they got 850s at +16 and some models also show +16 850s across south and south eastern areas.

been a longtime since we seen the jet sent so far north and no sign yet of it going anywhere fast.

its not been a very mobile westerly flow for sometime,

although not surprised give the record breaking strat warming plus a more el nino set up with east qbo and continued low solar activity.

so just right for heights to continue to dominate.

and spain and central europe looks incredibly hot.

the attacks from the west are 1 aiding heat to pump up from the south or south east. 2 the azores/scandi heights are a brickwall.

although looking pretty dry as is normally the case in these set ups we still could set up some spectacular storms either home grown or imported from our south.

either way heatwave continues as have many have said really is not a common feature in recent years.

gem-1-174.thumb.png.494e66d99d32cf77fe27a6fb55b17da3.png

gem is the most extreme but this could be further west or further east which would suggest we would miss the hottest.

gens-0-0-180.thumb.png.f5cb7b38dcfb04e2999fa945851f533b.png

gefs looks close to a extreme heat event.

ECM0-216.thumb.gif.bb1a29072c924144cdce350ccf4f8aeb.gif

ecm is very close to the gefs.

ive left out the gfs i think its way to progressive.

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