Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z is looking good..becoming warmer and warmer again!

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z GFS reverts back closer to where we were a few days ago with the emphasis on HP having slightly less of an influence.

Not desperately unsettled but nowhere near as good as we have been shown previously.

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by CreweCold

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

12z GFS reverts back closer to where we were a few days ago with the emphasis on HP having slightly less of an influence.

Not desperately unsettled but nowhere near as good as we have been shown previously.

 

Looks very similar to the 6z in the reliable.

[mb018538]

Looks a bit progressive to me....I wouldn’t worry too much, ukmo and ecm still looking good!

[Singularity]

The disappearance of the mid-Atlantic amplification/highly meridional jet on the 12z GFS and GEM literally had me doing a slow facepalm - I’d hoped we’d left that sort of runs behind with the big AAM climb reliably represented.

There must still be some variability in the trades causing issues. Perhaps the onset of a plume-like pattern could actually be delayed toward later next week. Just a possibility - let’s see what the ECM 12z does. Big implications for the mean CET this month (near average temps causing a gradual slide toward a warm final figure, vs well above average temps keeping it very warm or even increasing it a little).

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational actually comes close to producing a couple of plume events in low res and during high res the south of the uk in particular shows predominantly warm / very warm fine weather but more changeable and less warm further north, later in low res we all see some wet weather but the n / nw bears the brunt of it...the mean may tell a different / better story..I'm certainly not getting downbeat about the outlook based on this run!

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Yes, ^^, the evolution of the ICON 12 z ,here at T180 was more what I was expecting to see than the GFS/GEM I must admit - but it is still some time away so some inter-run variability is still to be expected, I would say:

Should be an interesting ECM tonight.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z I must say there is some exciting plume potential / hot continental influence further ahead...the mean shows an impressive warm up again, nice azores ridge building in later this week, especially across southern uk..there looks to be more great weather on the way..at least for most of england and wales!

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Craig84]

Much more like it from the ECM, that’s a scorcher at 168!

[mb018538]

ECM resolutely sticking to the hot outlook - 850s up at 15/16c in spots, noting like the gfs. I know which one of the two I believe...

[Captain Shortwave]

   

   

Pretty decent from the ECM with high pressure building across the UK again, a very potent area of tropical maritime air to our west which would help if skies are clear to breach the 30C mark yet again.

The ECM looks pretty similar to this mornings run with another low trying to dig southwards in the Atlantic.

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T192:

diverged from GFS somewhere between T144 and T168 if you ask me.  Good ECM run.

Edit. T216, could be a spicy last frame to this one:

Edit: T240 charts. Scorchio!

wouldn't  take adjustment t for this for the absolute blowtorch!

Edited July 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

That is a seriously hot run from ecm!!starts pretty much from 72 hours and the heat goes on all the way till 216 hours so far!!much better than gfs and i bet you the gfs will be much better if not on the 18z then the 00z run!!

[Frosty.]

Phew what a scorcher the Ecm 12z turns into, last evening's 12z turned on the heat pump too but this run looks even hotter!..not complaining of course

[mb018538]

ECM hot out to 240, which would only leave 5 days left in July....CET is going to be well above 19c by this time should the ecm come off, so records are going to be under threat 

[Frosty.]

Caution with these Ecm 12z charts..they are HOT!!

[Snowjokes92]

Ecm 12z looks very hot and sticky. And a ridge appearing from the west at 240 for a possible reload of the weather we have been experiencing. Details will change

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Ecm 12z looks very hot and sticky. And a ridge appearing from the west at 240 for a possible reload of the weather we have been experiencing. Details will change

 

 

Th chart you've posted looks slack and muggy to me

[SMU]

Great set of runs today-

Target landing zone Sunday / Monday -

35c.

[Singularity]

Looking closely, the main instability is still west of the UK on day 10 of the 12z ECM (rainfall charts support this deduction). So that's good consistency with the 00z run as opposed to GFS' wild flailing (let alone GEM... it's 12z is quite simply unbelievably flat!). 

The movement of the Azores high away from the islands of namesake fits well with the Nino background, hence my believe that the flatter GFS and GEM solutions must be based on more in the way of conflicting tropical activity taking place (such as trade wind bursts).

With our most reliable source of settled weather suppressed, it comes down to how much ridging can occur from the UK eastward. With lots of hot air in place, the models will struggle to resolve this, as they tend to get a bit too excitable (i.e trigger-happy with LP formation) when so much energy is available to potentially be destabilised. I'd not be surprised to see a crazy ECM run or two over the coming 4-5 days in which a LP from the south suddenly becomes very intense for the time of year; it did that a couple of times during plume scenarios last year. Some kind of feedback issue. Unless the update back in March has sorted that out, which is certainly possible!

[Snowjokes92]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Th chart you've posted looks slack and muggy to me

Yes and thats fine if you like that sort of weather for thunderstorms. Am sure the low would meander and high to the west try to build in. But like i said it will change 

[Snowy L]

ECM/UKMO vs GFS/GEM. I know who I would trust...

[Snowjokes92]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

ECM/UKMO vs GFS/GEM. I know who I would trust...

Still havent forgot 2 weeks ago when gfs wanted to bring a low up from the sw and bringing a fair amount of rain and a breakdown. Ecm and ukmo stayed firm and gfs jumped on board later. Not saying the gfs runs have been terrible today, but the latest one gos off on one next week, but to be honest im not too concerned. 

[mushymanrob]

im liking this progression, (two days ) ok its far from a given, but its heading for a cut off low to our southwest, which adds weight to the 'plume' option, although currently itll be transient. worth watching, a strong scandi high and troughing to our southwest could see us roast

 

[Froze were the Days]

6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Temps on the rise well before the weekend!..29 / 30c for london as early as thursday, from there on..hotter and hotter...Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

Looks like 35 degrees of pure British celsius come early next week if the ECM is on the money...  time to get the licensed legs out.