Model output discussion 14/04/18

[mb018538]

@Steve Murr mentioned this a few days ago, but there must be a chance at the all time cet record going this month, and maybe even the first 20c month? What do people think?

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z really hots up again later in the run, continental heat / humidity=sunshine and big thunderstorms breaking out and imported from france..the message from this run is after today's heat across the s / se.. make the most of the fresher feel in the coming days / nights if you're not a fan of hot sticky weather because the heat could be back again..soon!☺..I'm loving this summer so far, hope there's plenty more very summery weather to come during the second half too!

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 00z... D10, here it comes, the one many of us have been waiting for... stalled low in Atlantic, massive plume incoming... 

Given that the raw ec maxes are 30/31 days 8-10 (add a couple of degrees onto that ),  one wonders what an injection of even higher 850’s would achieve ...... 

[mb018538]

I honestly think that a 2003 style plume of >20c uppers would take us mightily close to 40c if it were to come off in the next 2-3 weeks....it has that sort of feel to the summer, everything is as primed and ready as it could be to achieve temps that high.

[Coopsy]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I honestly think that a 2003 style plume of >20c uppers would take us mightily close to 40c if it were to come off in the next 2-3 weeks....it has that sort of feel to the summer, everything is as primed and ready as it could be to achieve temps that high.

Which means it probably won't happen - murphy's law and all that

[Man With Beard]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given that the raw ec maxes are 30/31 days 8-10 (add a couple of degrees onto that ),  one wonders what an injection of even higher 850’s would achieve ...... 

I'm thinking 35C at the very least. Yes, if it were possible to make 40C in the UK, then if we got to the D10 chart, it would be the best chance for a very very long time (still extremely low chance at that point, but a chance all the same) 

I'm tempering my expectations with the fact that most plume attempts in FI have failed, and also this one depends on a fast deepening low in the Atlantic (also failed consistently this summer).

I'm interested though because this is the kind of thing that would genuinely make 2018 a challenger for 1976's crown. 

Edited July 16, 2018 by Man With Beard

[summer blizzard]

Always interesting to see the models contrast.

GFS has a trough over us at day 10, Euro has a plume with the pump well west.

[kold weather]

ECM control run goes fully off the handle in the back end of the run, going from widespread 29-32C upto 35C (with widespread 32-34C in the SE on the 27th. Interestingly this is a long run now from the ECM control going plus 32C+. Probably would challenge the record IF it came off like that. July record would easily go in such a set-up as well, probably 20C+ average.

Most runs remain very warm, there are a few downright hot runs, though the mean would probably be for maxes similar levels to this weekend just gone, 26-28C.

I suspect much like often happens in winter blocking set-ups, the GFS is trying to undercut the upper high too rapidly and I suspect high pressure will remain dominant.

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Little or no rain for parts of S and SE England along with E Anglia through the whole of the 00z ECM run, not really anything from GFS either until sometime next week. Any fronts that seem to cross the country this summer seem to die a death when they reach the SE, turning into a truly notable dry summer, still had no rain here in south London since late May and doesn't look to be any on the horizon unless one of the isolated showers this week passes by. 

Quite often these protracted dry and hot spells seem to be self-perpetuating unless that is a huge pattern change to rid of the underlying blocking signal, certainly seen little sign of a big pattern change. I would think a decent chance that Aug 2003 record could be challenged if we can get the flow to come from the south for a few days at least, given how dry the ground is.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Nick F

[Craig84]

And now we have a similar heat pump setup forming on the 06z GFS........

Edited July 16, 2018 by Craig84

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Craig84 said:

And now we have a similar heat pump setup forming on the 06z GFS........

Yup was gona say gfs 06z looks a beauty and more what i exepect to see!!the improvements were already on show at 90 hours in takin that little low north of scotland further north and east rather than cutting through the east of the uk!!awesome spell of weather this?

[Frosty.]

Just one of the many highlights from the Gfs 6z operational..what a run!

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Before looking at this morning's clusters, a word on the EC control run which is quite scary, literally the hottest run you'll ever see for the UK, and I expect would result in 40C being reached in the UK. I can't see the maximums for the ensembles, just the midday temperature. Between D10 and D13, the control run regularly pushes the 33C mark by midday. But then on D14 (Monday 30th), uppers get up to 22C and we see 37C being reached across East Anglia - again, by midday. When you add the fact that the ECM raw temprature data is often 2-3C down on actuals, and the midday temperature is rarely as high as the daily maximum .... I'll let you come to your own conclusion.

Now this seems just a tad extreme but, also slightly scary, it will not be a total outlier according to the clusters, because a. the control run is in the largest cluster from D8 onwards and b. the two largest clusters have the same thing in common: low heights in the Atlantic trying but failing to get into the UK, leading to a southerly or SEly draw: Look at the progression between D8 and D13:

     

And just look at the resultant straight line from Iberia on the control run cluster.

So very, very interesting times coming up.

[kold weather]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Before looking at this morning's clusters, a word on the EC control run which is quite scary, literally the hottest run you'll ever see for the UK, and I expect would result in 40C being reached in the UK. I can't see the maximums for the ensembles, just the midday temperature. Between D10 and D13, the control run regularly pushes the 33C mark by midday. But then on D14 (Monday 30th), uppers get up to 22C and we see 37C being reached across East Anglia - again, by midday. When you add the fact that the ECM raw temprature data is often 2-3C down on actuals, and the midday temperature is rarely as high as the daily maximum .... I'll let you come to your own conclusion. 

Now this seems just a tad extreme but, also slightly scary, it will not be a total outlier according to the clusters, because a. the control run is in the largest cluster from D8 onwards and b. the two largest clusters have the same thing in common: low heights in the Atlantic trying but failing to get into the UK, leading to a southerly or SEly draw: Look at the progression between D8 and D13:

     

And just look at the resultant straight line from Iberia on the control run cluster.

So very, very interesting times coming up.

Having looked at the ensembles, its the hottest run out of the ensemble suite, but that's not to say there isn't also some other very hot runs, plenty go to 30c which would probably translate something up to a 33-34C max. Also the control run has been generally showing 30-35C maxes now for some time in that timeframe...

[tight isobar]

There is 'no hysteria' in the mix..

Just some alarming outs-if the heat you can't bear.

The ostia sst-graphics showing the never ending heat fuse-having the positive effects via chanel southwards facing waters!!!

Annoms also showing -growing note of 'perhaps' the hottest part of our incredible summer....yet to surface!!!

The ens(london ones in this instance( i feel are a tad lagging atm although clearly begining to bounce in the similar ballpark...punching on an upwards spike.

Some very impressive long fetched plume work..also punching well northwards as outs get to grip....

Some record breaking temps 'CERTAINLY' cannot be disgarded...

With August looking increasingly possible/probable...the hottest month in the waiting!!!!!!

Edited July 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean screams a swift return to very summery weather, especially across the southern half of the uk. Indeed looking at this week, today's another hot sticky one for the SE and although it will become a bit cooler and fresher tomorrow, it starts hotting up again from midweek, by thursday it's expected to be back up to 29c for london..Next week looks even hotter

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Froze were the Days]

17 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarah Keith-Lucas on BBC forecast for this week - 'cooler and more unsettled towards the end of this week' - huh!?! well I can't see that at all!

BBC already have done a U-turn on the forecast of last night for later in the week, Darren Bett said not expecting the unsettled conditions to move in across the whole country and 'temperatures on the rise as we move into the weekend'. I wonder what model they were looking at?...as  a fair few on here couldn't see where they were coming from.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

 'temperatures on the rise as we move into the weekend'. 

Temps on the rise well before the weekend!..29 / 30c for london as early as thursday, from there on..hotter and hotter...Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

Edited July 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

BBC already have done a U-turn on the forecast of last night for later in the week, Darren Bett said not expecting the unsettled conditions to move in across the whole country and 'temperatures on the rise as we move into the weekend'. I wonder what model they were looking at?...as  a fair few on here couldn't see where they were coming from.

Maybe they were reading Doomin75s posts over on TWO 

On a serious note its a poor show when the national forecast is so far out of sync with what can be expected- i commented last night that it beggars belief.

WRT this mornings runs it would seem the SE is nailed on for some serious heat as we head through the weekend and into next week, those of us further north and west will have to watch how far the Atlantic will penetrate- hopefully not to far into the country.

[danm]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

BBC already have done a U-turn on the forecast of last night for later in the week, Darren Bett said not expecting the unsettled conditions to move in across the whole country and 'temperatures on the rise as we move into the weekend'. I wonder what model they were looking at?...as  a fair few on here couldn't see where they were coming from.

They use MeteoGroup who use a blend of different models, but primarily use the ECM. 

Im pretty sure their week ahead forecasts use data that is probably about 12 hours old so when the broadcast goes out at 8pm they’re basing it on the mornings 0z runs. 

If things change on the 12z’s it will unlikely be picked up in the evening forecasts. 

It was similar when they used the Met Office to be fair. They’d base their forecasts from earlier UKMO model runs.

Edited July 16, 2018 by danm

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe they were reading Doomin75s posts over on TWO 

On a serious note its a poor show when the national forecast is so far out of sync with what can be expected- i commented last night that it beggars belief.

WRT this mornings runs it would seem the SE is nailed on for some serious heat as we head through the weekend and into next week, those of us further north and west will have to watch how far the Atlantic will penetrate- hopefully not to far into the country.

Aye; you were right enough.

[swebby]

6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I honestly think that a 2003 style plume of >20c uppers would take us mightily close to 40c if it were to come off in the next 2-3 weeks....it has that sort of feel to the summer, everything is as primed and ready as it could be to achieve temps that high.

Yes, a deep Atlantic trough/cut off low pumping very warm uppers all the way from N.Africa does have that 2003 look about it.

From an IMBY perspective, i would have preferred to have kept our recent weather pattern where the fine weather is courtesy of the strong ridging from the Azores high.  In-part because it is reminiscent of the more classical British fine summer weather (e.g. 1976) that tends to avoid the very silly high temps coupled with oppressive humidity but more importantly, it is because it is a more reliable source of fine weather for the majority of the UK (North Sco and NE coast possibly excepted).  Yes, the projected pattern can provide the "scorchio" weather that was UK wide in 2003 but it is a very fine line (ca 300-500 miles) between that and something extremely  unsettled for Ireland and the western parts of the UK. If memory serves this is what occurred for most of the summer of 2011.

[Catacol]

Sharp rise in GLAAM that kicked off around 4th July now impacting on the atlantic pattern, with a much more meridional feel on the horizon. This is the path for the next 10 days

 

Beyond this all to play for. From a personal note I'm interested to see if AAM increases and the current MJO wave move the atmosphere into more of a Nino pattern longer term, or whether enough residual Nina remains to hold off a global shift. It looks like fine margins to me. Pacific temperature profile is neutral but forecast steadily to rise. MJO wave is the biggest in a while, but may not make progress into the pacific as quickly as expected using norms. Ventrice notes, using NOAA data,  progress of the kelvin wave through the atlantic and towards Africa through late July - will this help reduce the azores high and give the atlantic trough more legs via westerly wind bursts and undermining of any azores influence?

In conclusion - short/medium term looks like a Nino style pattern giving heat, instability and thunder storms. Longer term into August? Uncertain. If GLAAM flattens then so too will the pattern.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by Catacol

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe they were reading Doomin75s posts over on TWO 

On a serious note its a poor show when the national forecast is so far out of sync with what can be expected- i commented last night that it beggars belief.

WRT this mornings runs it would seem the SE is nailed on for some serious heat as we head through the weekend and into next week, those of us further north and west will have to watch how far the Atlantic will penetrate- hopefully not to far into the country.

I’ve found a few of their long range forecasts pretty poor - mainly because they make it look like it’s certain to happen, and as you say last night pretty much all output pointed to the opposite. I tend to take them with a pinch of salt, you can get a better picture on these forums.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye; you were right enough.

Well to be fair Ed we are talking 5 or 6 days in advance - my gripe would be they didn't even mention uncertainty - if the BBC weekly forecasts were audited then there would be some serious questions IMHO- these are the pros and are paid a fortune, at times i feel the general public would be better off reading Net weather than watching the Beeb- i know im drifting off topic now but i feel quite strongly about this and feel questions should be asked -ie which models are these 'pros' using etc..

Anyway, we await the 12zs, hopefully the trend of recent runs is maintained.