Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The crumb of comfort for this week at least is that maxima and minima are pretty reasonable and that it should feel quite fresh.

Looking ahead though the GFS has a ridge again by 8 over the UK albeit the rest of this month looks quite messy with a lot of col/weak ridge type weather. 

I get the impression that the weather wants to break down now but that the Atlantic simply lacks the energy to make it happen. 

From a weather fan prespective at least (even if i dislike humidity and heat) it's pretty incredible.

 

As I said yesterday, the background pattern is slowly changing. It is an arduous process at the minute though.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z turns on the heat pump again, potentially high 20's / low 30's celsius again later in the run..what a summer this is!..very hot and humid continental feed later, I'm thinking sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms at times...Beautiful charts!

Edited July 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

if the 850's are around +10 expect something like mid 20's c depending on sunshine but if they are nearer +15 uppers, something like high 20's to low 30's c can be expected, again, depending on the sun being out for a reasonable length of time.☺

Well uppers were only around 11-12c today and we reached 31c at Mildenhall...they don’t have to be exceptional to get really high temperatures. Plenty of factors come into play, in fact a lot of high temperatures in this heat spell have come from 850s nearer to 10c than 15c. Right time of the year, strong 500mb heights, dry airmass and a long run without rain have helped boost temps.

[summer blizzard]

Euro is even messier than the GFS but in its biggest attempt to melt me yet we get 30C probably over a wide area with humidity likely to boot..

[Scorcher]

22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Lapse rates now should be around 13-14C however the lack of soil moisture and clear skies has amplified that a bit. 

I think this is very conservative, we routinely do better than that even in average summers. 10C 850hPa temps in these parts nearly always bring 25C in summer with decent amounts of sunshine and favourable wind direction. As a guide I usually add 15C and in dry spells such as this one, maybe 17C. Uppers of around 9C here today have produced a temperature of 26.2C at the surface.

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Scorcher said:

I think this is very conservative, we routinely do better than that even in average summers. 10C 850hPa temps in these parts nearly always bring 25C in summer with decent amounts of sunshine and favourable wind direction. As a guide I usually add 15C and in dry spells such as this one, maybe 17C. Uppers of around 9C here today have produced a temperature of 26.2C at the surface.

That was my point. Lapse rates change with the sun from around 9C to 15C on average so being a month from the solistance we should be around 14C now.. of course we've had almost no rain for months which is amplifying things. 

[mb018538]

ECM looking a lot different from the 00z, so not much help on that front. Until the weekend low and how that moves away is resolved we won’t really have a clear picture.

[Man With Beard]

ECM temperatures close to 30C from Thursday over southern areas to the end of the run. Probably a tad over 30C if you add the usual 2-3C to the raw data. 

The new "breakdown" at the 25th was well supported by the ensembles this morning, but any forecasted breakdown needs to be treated with a pinch of salt considering recent form, I guess? 

[Frosty.]

I'm running out of superlatives, another stunning Ecm det...yet another hot reload, it's a very special summer this..long may it continue..until mid Sept at least!

Edited July 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[SMU]

Indeed ^^^ The low over the UK on the overnight 00z Euro has all but evaporated on the 12z with heat building again from the south-

If we make it to this weekend for me it will be closing in on 2 months with no rain here-

Splendid day here 88F & crystal clear skies...

[Froze were the Days]

Sarah Keith-Lucas on BBC forecast for this week - 'cooler and more unsettled towards the end of this week' - huh!?! well I can't see that at all!

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarah Keith-Lucas on BBC forecast for this week - 'cooler and more unsettled towards the end of this week' - huh!?! well I can't see that at all!

Lovely lady probably old data. Who knows

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarah Keith-Lucas on BBC forecast for this week - 'cooler and more unsettled towards the end of this week' - huh!?! well I can't see that at all!

It really is ridiculous that BBC are forecasting this when we can all see looking at the NWP thats not happening.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It really is ridiculous that BBC are forecasting this when we can all see looking at the NWP thats not happening.

But it will be cooler (it won't be 31C every day, for a start - and there's always a chance of rain...) So why is the Beeb's forecast necessarily wrong? Like you can predict the weather, with the utmost accuracy, six-/seven-days' hence!

[Singularity]

A bit sceptical of how weak the ridging is this weekend from the ECM 12z, but the general outcome fits to today's major trend to increase SLP and as a result reduce instability for Tuesday through to at least 9 days from now. Result being that after tomorrow's decaying front, any rainfall looks to be in the form of localised showers. 

I'm still keeping an open mind on that drifting low Wed-Fri as it could still feasibly adjust back east and affect us more, but the chances have been reducing with each new set of runs today.

Good old tropical signals. After a rough time a couple of winters back (misbehaving QBO a major contributor to that), they've been faring well at providing guidance as to what the direction of travel will most likely be in the modelling.

A pretty nice high-AAM orbit here; not too high (as with pretty much everything, some moderation is needed for the best results!), but enough to significantly affect our weather patterns in pleasing ways (unless you don't enjoy high temperatures!).

[Boro Snow]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarah Keith-Lucas on BBC forecast for this week - 'cooler and more unsettled towards the end of this week' - huh!?! well I can't see that at all!

And over the weekend she added to that, looking at the models including the ECM she should be going by, not seeing that either 

[Mike Poole]

Good 12s all round today, but I think that's what most were expecting.  A few more to add to the good news story, the JMA (T192), and FIM9 and FV3 at T240:

The GFS parallel/FV3 particularly keen on building the heights into Scandi - the long hot summer of 2018 continues!

[Man With Beard]

Hold the front page.. GFS 18z back with a slightly deeper low for the weekend

[Mike Poole]

Well the pub run seems to have its mind made up as to where we're headed, here at T210, Scandi high anyone, cheers 

[Chesil View]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

It really is ridiculous that BBC are forecasting this when we can all see looking at the NWP thats not happening.

 

indeed so NWS the BBC extended forecast has become pretty poor since meteo group took over the contract. I still watch it but then look at the met office to see really likely to happen.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z looks Scandinavian high v Atlantic trough for the mean

[mushymanrob]

19 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

So far, I'd rank it 4th, after 1975, '76 and '95 (which all lasted through August, as well as just June and July). But, as I can't remember either 1947 or '59, I'll leave those years for others to compare...

Come on models: make summer great again!

83?.... id rate 83 along with 75, 76, 95... currently this heatwave is only 3 weeks old, so has yet to 'beat' 2013, 2006, etc... but indications are that we will get more heat with no significant breakdown. so this summer is likely to feature as one of the greatest, and certainly the greatest since 1995.

12 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm lost for words at tonight's UKMO. Just where has this breakdown GONE? UKMO has completely cancelled it tonight. I'm starting to believe in a July with absolutely no rainfall in my location - after about 1mm last month. Is this really the UK? 

to be fair, theres been no 'breakdown' as such, just a slackening of pressure and temps for some time.

8-14 day chart suggests more unsettled with plumes possible thunderstorms, and adds weight to the clusters posted earlier..



 

[landslave]

14 hours ago, sixfootdrifter said:

There is no water shortage. There is more than enough in reserve. Stop fretting.

Mmmm.... well in my area ( east Midlands) farmers being told this week  is the last for abstraction for irrigation of crops from some parts of " the Trent   and Mease  rivers" .....  not good  for the plant's  or  price in the shop's   IF WE DON'T GET THE RAIN. 

but looking at the longer range forecast  it's not coming  YET.

 

[mb018538]

 Well if you like the great summer 2018 heat wave, the ecm 00z is just for you....turning very hot again into next week. Temps probably pushing past 32c/90f again as it heats up. Crazy stuff.

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00z... D10, here it comes, the one many of us have been waiting for... stalled low in Atlantic, massive plume incoming...