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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Still very volatile at the moment!

The ECM ensemble for the 00z shows that the ECM OP/GFS 0z and 6z generally fall into the small cluster of the ridge moving in - 62% still much more unsettled.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071300_240.

Further ahead, the biggest cluster is still low pressure dominated:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071300_300.

These may be of little use for the next couple of days anyway, we're still seeing such wild swings from run to run.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still very volatile at the moment!

The ECM ensemble for the 00z shows that the ECM OP/GFS 0z and 6z generally fall into the small cluster of the ridge moving in - 62% still much more unsettled.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071300_240.

Further ahead, the biggest cluster is still low pressure dominated:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071300_300.

These may be of little use for the next couple of days anyway, we're still seeing such wild swings from run to run.

Could be a case of the op runs getting to grips with things first. In such volatile situations the ensembles aren’t usually much use. We will see I suppose, but if the 12z op runs carry on moderating the unsettled spell, it could get interesting as they may be picking up on a new signal.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Could be a case of the op runs getting to grips with things first. In such volatile situations the ensembles aren’t usually much use. We will see I suppose, but if the 12z op runs carry on moderating the unsettled spell, it could get interesting as they may be picking up on a new signal.

I'm seeing the opposite actually - the ensembles are increasingly going the unsettled route - ensembles (collectively) probably more useful than the op after D8. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm seeing the opposite actually - the ensembles are increasingly going the unsettled route - ensembles (collectively) probably more useful than the op after D8. 

Possibly. But until we get Chris modelled correctly, I don’t think any output is much use, especiall low res ensembles at day 8. In this set up that’s FI. Even day 5 is pushing it at the moment.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm seeing the opposite actually - the ensembles are increasingly going the unsettled route - ensembles (collectively) probably more useful than the op after D8. 

Just got a feeling this unsettled spell will continue being moderated and the warm and dry weather will continue!!i could be wrong but this mornings runs have really given me a boost in regards to lengthening this amazing summer even further!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As it is i would say that some people are perhaps putting too much emphasis on a settled end to the Euro, the day 8 chart for example is far from settled.

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As it is i would say that some people are perhaps putting too much emphasis on a settled end to the Euro, the day 8 chart for example is far from settled.

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

So why not post the day 9-10 charts which show a ridge? You have picked the most unsettled chart in the whole run.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

So why not post the day 9-10 charts which show a ridge? You have picked the most unsettled chart in the whole run.

because the day 8 chart is more likely to verify than the ones that follow ???

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

because the day 8 chart is more likely to verify than the ones that follow ???

He mentioned the end of the run. Day 10 is the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

According to the GEFS 6z mean we are not looking at a settled outlook..BUT it doesn't look particularly unsettled either, it's a very slack slow moving pattern..we would expect some dry spells with sunshine at times but also showers / thunderstorms & longer spells of rain..continuing on the warm side across southern uk, especially further southeast where the best of the fine weather and temperatures are indicated, generally close to the mid 20's celsius throughout, progressively cooler further N / NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm seeing the opposite actually - the ensembles are increasingly going the unsettled route - ensembles (collectively) probably more useful than the op after D8. 

Always the way to go i think and looking at the GFS slp ensembles, the op is definitely the most bullish about ridging from the Azores over the uk day 8-11.  It does however have some support from 5-6 members of the ensembles.

If i recall correctly. The models, over a 2-3 day period when storm Hector was on it's way back in the first half of June, were confident that a long wave trough was likely to hang about the UK indefinitely, that never really materialised. I always feel that once a strong Azores high sets up and influences the UK weather early in the summer season, then it will take something significant for prolonged unsettled weather to take hold before the end of August. E.g a major mid Atlantic Hurricane or very strong tropical forcing. No sign of the first at the mo and Catacol posted yesterday that the tropical forcing currently modelled is being watered down. 

Edited by swebby
Easier to read (hopefully)
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Thanks @Tamarafor your valuable insights as usual.

Just a comment on your 'despair' over our the reliance on NWP... I don't use them because I necessarily believe they are the best - I use them because I'm just not clever enough to use anything else ;) So your updates are greatly valued to fill the gaps in our intellectual voids!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

GFS has the low diving south/south eastwards to the west of the UK late next week which may throw a ridge/plume ahead of it. Further west & south the better...

7013D50F-CF43-493C-8B77-C6D52887EEAE.thumb.png.cf871c03083ef3bc8d31cb15f2d72d83.png

ICON cuts off the low and the Scandi and Azores ridge start to link to our north and moving southwards. A little better all round so far this evening.

D3494534-C996-49E3-A262-1195F305F862.thumb.png.9cd76570b03d60520e52a809074d88eb.png

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

I think maybe the models are struggling to deal with end result here. Which in my opinion will be trough to west of uk and ridge building up from the south. Gfs 12z does this, its not a clean scenario, but i think once the models have a firmer understanding of chris, i think we will see more cleaner runs develop delivering another decent spell of weather after the blip if you can call it that

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Yup 12zs keep that improvement going!!again precipitation rates are nowhere near as much on the gfs in the short to medium term compared to a day or 2 ago!!ukmo similar!!good luck to the few who get some showers cos it doesnt look we gona get any meaningfull rainfall anytime soon!!lets hope ecm looks a bit more settled compared to last nights runs!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, the summery warmth goes on..and on, especially across southern uk, nothing to moan about temperature wise..unless you don't like warmth of course!

12_27_uk2mtmp.png

12_51_uk2mtmp.png

12_75_uk2mtmp.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

because the day 8 chart is more likely to verify than the ones that follow ???

if you look deep fantasy  world is horrid!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm quiet at the moment because after weeks where discussion of the models day 8-10 has had predictive ability, we're now in a period of volatility where that certainly isn't true.  Less settled, for sure, as the pressure over UK falls here UKMO and ECM at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.506bb107a0edeecbec790b0f14c93a3f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.35717390fa39e9b9e2d9eda492ac24a3.jpg

they are quite different.  I think a watching brief is in order for the next week or so, until we see whether the expected outcome from the teleconnections and from the long range models is borne out in the operationals and ensembles.

Mind you ECM T192 just out looks very interesting with a rump of high pressure building back into the UK

image.thumb.jpg.c5db7e0c03de08cb367c1729fcfb17c8.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm quiet at the moment because after weeks where discussion of the models day 8-10 has had predictive ability, we're now in a period of volatility where that certainly isn't true.  Less settled, for sure, as the pressure over UK falls here UKMO and ECM at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.506bb107a0edeecbec790b0f14c93a3f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.35717390fa39e9b9e2d9eda492ac24a3.jpg

they are quite different.  I think a watching brief is in order for the next week or so, until we see whether the expected outcome from the teleconnections and from the long range models is borne out in the operationals and ensembles.

Mind you ECM T192 just out looks very interesting with a rump of high pressure building back into the UK

image.thumb.jpg.c5db7e0c03de08cb367c1729fcfb17c8.jpg

T216 even better. Ridge well and truley in there, jet fully to our North again.

 

ECMOPEU12_216_3.png

 

Ridging starts at t168, will be interesting to see the UKMO t168 later because I have a feeling it will show the same as the ECM based on its t144 chart.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z brings summer 2018 back!  T216 and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.4b19e9abd0d30839368538ae3d035906.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1e0772bb0a9dc8805cf0c09b5301f95c.jpg

first sign of a new signal, that's all we can take from it at the moment, but if this shows on tomorrow's runs then  ☀️   for a bit longer this summer!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, the summery warmth goes on..and on, especially across southern uk, nothing to moan about temperature wise..unless you don't like warmth of course!

12_27_uk2mtmp.png

12_51_uk2mtmp.png

12_75_uk2mtmp.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

Surely you can do better than that, Karl? There must be perturbation somewhere that tells us that summer is over?;)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Surely you can do better than that, Karl? There must be perturbation somewhere that tells us that summer is over?;)

LOL yes pete I shall go look for some to cherry pick:help::shok:

3_240_500mb.png

20_240_500mb.png

4_336_500mb.png

15_318_500mb.png

2_384_500mb.png

7_384_500mb.png

11_384_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Certainly a good way to end the Ecm 12z run with the azores high ridging in nicely☺

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

216_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

ECM det is very appealing this evening with much more emphasis on the azores high longer term- in the 0-72 hour timeframe its very warm for much of England and Wales.

Obviously the mean / clusters will reveal more , but no appetite for a durable trough on EC tonight.

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