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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is just yuck - the very worst chart you can see in the summer, and the type that can stick around for quite a while. I’m hoping others with far greater knowledge are correct in saying it shouldn’t be a long term thing, but my holiday starting next Saturday is starting to look very ropey!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well no complaints from me after a truly historic spell of summer weather but ECM tonight is going into full on breakdown mode with a southerly tracking jet, Greenland high and UK trough.

Not saying its correct but certainly momentum building for something much less settled or warm as we move through next week.

ECM is horrendous, no getting around it. It's all well and good wanting rain but we certainly don't need low pressure slap bang over the UK for that. Eugh.

Hopefully any change won't be quite as bad as that but the ECM run this evening really does spell 'summer is over', and just in tine for the holiday season. Great.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

 Tonight's runs. GEM and ECM are both diabolical at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c683a781e3f7244d249b5510a80d3ab1.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.77a66ff1382f546946cc1d07052898d9.jpg

GFS at same time, much more positive:

image.thumb.jpg.aabfd40ba3eedd059f6b630251142f7c.jpg

much uncertainty at the moment, inclined to watch the models less regularly until the models get to grips with the pattern change, for what it's worth I think the ultimate destination is hot, humid and thundery, for the south east at least, via an unsettled period lasting only shortly. We'll see!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, cheese said:

ECM is horrendous, no getting around it. It's all well and good wanting rain but we certainly don't need low pressure slap bang over the UK for that. Eugh.

Hopefully any change won't be quite as bad as that but the ECM run this evening really does spell 'summer is over', and just in tine for the holiday season. Great.

luckily I've noticed EC after 192 seems to never happen, but could it be a summer of 2 halves? Whit to Wimbledon fantastic, Mid Jul to early sept, low pressure all the way

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm applying broad brushstrokes to the GEFS 12z mean, it indicates a generally slack pattern with some trough influence meaning a mixture of sunshine and showers / longer spells of rain, some heavy, indeed a risk of thunderstorms at times, cool to average temps the further NW you go but warm across southern uk with low to mid 20's celsius, not a washout by any means, there would be some fine sunny spells too, especially across the s / e..also hints of a very warm continental incursion during late july, again, especially for the s / se.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
46 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well no complaints from me after a truly historic spell of summer weather but ECM tonight is going into full on breakdown mode with a southerly tracking jet, Greenland high and UK trough.

Not saying its correct but certainly momentum building for something much less settled or warm as we move through next week.

but thats what the noaa's have been predicting for that timeframe.. and continue to show troughing dominating for the 6-14 days timeframe.

as i see it, after sunday, the great heatwave/summery spell of 2018 is over, with an unsettled spell ensueing for the heart of summer and possibly the month. not that conditions will be bad, but after sunday theres no more 'heat' (as in 25c + ) widespread (favoured southeastern areas might well breach that benchmark) .

whether high pressure re-asserts itself into late july/august remains to be resolved, id like to imagine it would, but previous 'hot spells' of 2006 and 2013 failed to prolong after the three odd weeks. so this summer is now not looking like a 1976, 1983, 1995, etc whos cooler spells were short lived.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

According to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean it's gradually trending more unsettled as we go through next week, especially from towards the end of the week which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone..the latest met office update says the same!...so, some welcome rain for farmers, growers, gardens, rivers, reservoirs looks to be on the way, indeed tomorrow there could be half a month's worth of rain in the isolated thunderstorms that develop.

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Early indications are the EC op was very aggressive with the trough/southerly tracking jet- the mean far less so,00z runs will reveal more.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Sometimes hurricanes can work in our favour and break an unsettled spell....this time it looks like doing the opposite! The big question will be how long we get stuck under the trough for. We’ve had a lot of bad august months in recent years (3 of the last 4 have been dreadful), so hopefully 2018 doesn’t join the collection.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Early indications are the EC op was very aggressive with the trough/southerly tracking jet- the mean far less so,00z runs will reveal more.

The direction of travel into next weekend is pretty clear at the moment - time for it to revert back to something less unsettled but we haven’t yet reached the far end of the pendulum swing .........

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

We cannot control the weather neither does the models control the weather but i don't think anyone can complain about this summer so far and it will def be one summer to talk about,we have had our fine spell and if it becomes unsettled so be it,it's not the end of summer yet nor the end of the world:smile:

this weekend is looking nice and warm/very warm still so get out and enjoy it,next week look's(at the moment)that there will be a breakdown to more unsettled conditions in the way of showers/thundery showers but warm sunny intervals in between

looking further ahead looks uncertain but could be more unsettled than not looking at the 6-10 and the 8-14 day outlook 500mb anomoly charts from cpc with a trough/low parked over or to the south of the BI that could produce some hefty thundery showers

610day_03.thumb.gif.1b72d8c2f689dd7e9d14354748e78482.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ee66401255d9b270ee7e481bf56dd4d6.gif

looking at the ecm and gfs mean at day ten,the ecm is more progressive with the unsettled weather into the BI but there is not much difference

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.a87d79b8a5e3f350339005115a00fa3b.pnggensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.3cd8635fba5bd0d2ee59e00356661ac5.png

will the summer weather come back!!!,we will find out soon enough:smile:

one final note,unlucky England but you did very very well to get that far,well done:clap:???????

 

 

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

those moaning about ECM should go back on their comments in recent days ago when they wanted some "dearly needed rain" to end this life threatening 2 month drought. You wanted rain, you've got it!!

This, we get rain so often on this island, the moment we go 3 weeks without rain people acting like we live in the Sahara. Do people think plants and wildlife die every summer in the meditteranean for example? It could have been legendary had this dry and settled spell continued through August, but hey at least we finally got the rain that we see nearly every day most summers anyway.

 

As for 18z, better ridging of the Azores high into next week, so much so that it is actually linked with the Scandi high (which is also a bit closer to us on this run). Just a shame we have that disturbance close to us.

GFSOPEU18_138_1.png

That looks like a mostly northerly tracking jet with some energy braking off towards the UK to me rather than a jet tracking southerly over the UK.

 

GFSOPEU18_138_21.thumb.png.87fdfb3e834420d422f9d265b479b127.png

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Jeez these mod thread posts are always the same “GFS says rain by day seven therefore it MUST mean rain until October - no wait! ECM shows a single shaft of sunlight over Telford at 128Z so prepare for a heatwave lasting until 2080....”

Sigh, can’t ppl just hold back a bit ?‍♂️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Thankfully the ECM 12z op last night wasn't totally supported by the clusters:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071212_240.

By day 13 you have an almost equal 3 way split of options too - equally unhelpful, and just highlighting how much trouble ex-Chris is causing models:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071212_240.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Much more mellow runs today than the uber-aggressive 12z runs of last night.

12z last night 240 hours:

ECM1-240.GIF?12

00z 240 hours:
ECM1-240.GIF?13-12

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Thankfully we have moved away from last nights ecm horror show and is better today!!had a feeling it went off one!!next week aint looking too bad on all 3 models!!warm and sunny with more showers about than recently but some places could still miss out on the rain which means the drought continues unfortunately!!not a total washout by aby means!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Thankfully the ECM 12z op last night wasn't totally supported by the clusters:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071212_240.

By day 13 you have an almost equal 3 way split of options too - equally unhelpful, and just highlighting how much trouble ex-Chris is causing models:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018071212_300.

What is a bit concerning for school holiday makers is that the Scandi high looks like directing the Atlantic depressions under the block rather than over it. This would lead to a pile up of low pressure over the UK and daily rain for most. 

However this is a very close run thing, especially so far out. A pulse from the Azores High could very easily link to the Scandi high sufficiently to cut off the Atlantic lows in Europe, or to force them to stall or head north (the ECM op is a little like this). 

The Scandi high scenario is very precarious when it isn't close enough to the UK - it can either make the summer kick on to even greater heights through plumes, or it could shipwreck the key holiday stage by trapping a trough inside. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

 

The Scandi high scenario is very precarious when it isn't close enough to the UK - it can either make the summer kick on to even greater heights through plumes, or it could shipwreck the key holiday stage by trapping a trough inside. 

Which is exactly what the eps extended is indicating. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Still a bit uncertain mid term this morning-  certainly a very warm weekend looks likely for the majority, perhaps we will sneak a decent day on monday away from the NW.

For the rest of the week i think 'slack' would sum it up, temps into the low to mid 20s , moreso the further SE one heads,but certainly some showers about, difficult to know where and when but certainly not a washout i wouldn't have thought.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I don't mind a bit of low pressure if it moves through and the pattern is mobile.....its those flabby summer lows that park over the UK and hardly move for 2-3 days that are the real summer killers, with cloud, rain and temps of say 16-18c. Mobile lows with showers or bands of rain that pass & temps in the low 20s is perfectly acceptable. Still uncertain which of these we will get served up.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Again so far an improvement on the gfs 06z with highee pressure across the uk next week and less flabby low pressure!!and looking at this run the only realistic chance of rainfall is tuesday and that also is in the form.of shower in the east which could be hit and miss!!got a horrible feeling come next week there probably wont be as much rain around as shown currently which will extended this drought in many places!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

6Z offers a decent week for many away from the NW with temps low to mid 20s every day.

And longer term GFS 6z seems to be sniffing out the azores high ridging back in for next weekend :)

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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