Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Man With Beard]

A little more info from the EC clusters this morning.

T168 = strong anomalies west Atlantic and Scandinavia (some differences there). Not much Atlantic influence for the UK except just maybe in the far NW

T264/T312/T360 (D11-D15). Quite a selection. 

    

The main cluster (top left) emphasises the influence of heights to the NE, and gives a continental influence to the UK, so warm and often settled with opportunities for thundery lows to bite at the south from time to time

The middle cluster sees the Icelandic trough as a bit stronger, and so a NW/SE split throughout with more Atlantic influence for all, still possibly continental in the SE

The smaller cluster (top right) is a real summer killer  - strong and developed troughing close to the SW, plenty of rain and not much opportunity for warmth to remain.

 

 

 

[mb018538]

That third cluster is awful - full on low pressure with high pressure to the north. Thankfully in the minority and not really supported in the ensembles or the met updates/general thoughts from experts. Cluster one actually looks pretty good, and two isn’t too bad either. Anything but three please!

[Frosty.]

Most of the precipitation on the Gfs 6z operational appears to be in the form of showers, many of which would be heavy and thundery with good spells of sunshine inbetween. Temperatures generally look on the warm / very warm side, especially further s / e..and very humid at times too.. I'm really not seeing a pattern change at all, just the occasional blip to an otherwise continuing very summery period.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

The 6z run is actually pretty good - and quite similar to the 00z ECM in that it send the trough down to the SW, before it slowly fills over the UK before high pressure starts to take charge again.
I think we'd take that!

[Frosty.]

Those of us hoping this predominantly very summery pattern continues through the rest of July should be pleased with the GEFS 6z mean, especially across the southern half of the uk.

[Singularity]

We're getting there, slowly but surely. A ridge in the UK-Scandinavia vicinity is an important component of the Nino-like response. For this reason I am sceptical of more than a temporary run of relatively lower SLP; it shouldn't become the dominant situation going forward, rather something we see now and then.

 

Still a lot of enhanced trade winds in the C Pacific interfering with the model's ability to see the wood for the trees, but the MJO has come into focus more too (reds around 120 E in the above chart are related to this) and the modelling is now showing some response to that. Still enough interference that GFS may continue to lurch between Nina-like and Nino-like solutions for at least a few more runs. Brace yourselves .

[Frosty.]

Just going through the GEFS 6z I found some nice ones..Here's my cherry pick!!!

Edited July 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Snowjokes92]

Anyone get the feeling from the models the second half of summer could be dominated by high pressure building from the south, low to the west or southwest and the azores high linking  to the high pressure above the low pressure ? Similar to the 6z gfs run 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

8 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Anyone get the feeling from the models the second half of summer could be dominated by high pressure building from the south, low to the west or southwest and the azores high linking  to the high pressure above the low pressure ? Similar to the 6z gfs run 

Uk weather is full of surprises. Heres a mid August prediction

[landslave]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

Uk weather is full of surprises. Heres a mid August prediction

 

[landslave]

1 minute ago, landslave said:

 

Please explain  what this  is showing as cannot read / understand  scale  on right-hand side ... thanks 

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, landslave said:

Please explain  what this  is showing as cannot read / understand  scale  on right-hand side ... thanks 

Hi there, it’s a map showing 500hpa anomalies - so basically where you see bulges and darker oranges, it indicates above average heights - ie high pressure.

looks good for the UK on this forecast!

[Snowjokes92]

Anyone see what i see on ukmo 144hr? A lot of high pressure situated around the uk. High pressure over scandi and a ridge building from the south and a bit of a ridge north west of uk. I just feel any breakdown looks temporary or likely to go out on a limb as there is a lot of high pressure floating about, which are in beneficial areas to affect us and cant imagine the unsettled weather been able to dominate after that ukmo 144 hr chart. Here it is:

 

Low to the west, ridge moving up from south west, pressure high over scandi and north west atlantic. Potential merging together in time.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Snowjokes92

[Snowjokes92]

Think something like this from gfs 6z will be a reoccuring theme for second half of summer. Low to south west of uk, pressue building over the low pressure and building in with plume like weather to the south. Something similar maybe to what tamara has been talking about recently. Lets see if we can get a pattern like this and hope the teleconnections continue to work in are favour. Hopefully we can see the models churning it out into an ongoing and reoccuring pattern for the rest of the summer, rather than something shortlived.What do you think @Tamara

Edited July 11, 2018 by Snowjokes92

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational is quite a mixed run but it's a very slack slow moving pattern dominated by troughs / ridges...there are some warm / very warm fine days ( especially further s / e ) some warm / humid showery days and some cooler days for areas stuck under persistent cloud and rain. In the reliable timeframe it's warming up with temperatures into the mid / high 20's celsius, especially further s / se with plenty of sunshine but an increasing risk of heavy showers breaking out with a chance of thunder but the nature of showers is hit and miss so parts of the uk would do well for sunshine and dry weather but towards the end of next week into the following week indicates some proper heavy rain for some of us..only based on this run of course!

Edited July 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[BruenSryan]

2 hours ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Anyone get the feeling from the models the second half of summer could be dominated by high pressure building from the south, low to the west or southwest and the azores high linking  to the high pressure above the low pressure ? Similar to the 6z gfs run 

Latest UKMO Glosea5 model doesn't agree with that, in fact a continuation of warm easterlies for August to October with its July 2018 update.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean becomes pretty vague, anyone who takes a good look at it will see what I mean, for large parts of the run the uk isn't affected by ridges or troughs, it's kind of no mans land but I did get the impression there could be a plume like situation towards the end of next week..temperature wise, in the short term the run becomes warm / very warm, especially further s / e..then fresher from the west early next week followed by warmer weather again, at least further south and as I said at the beginning, a chance of some very warm / hot and humid continental weather late next week for the south.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Broadly speaking the Ecm 12z is a warm run, indeed predominantly very warm further s / se but it's not a settled run as such, there looks like being some rain or showers, heavy and thundery in places but also plenty of dry and sunny spells, the best of these across the warmer s / e / se.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Totally gutted England are out but at least we made it to the semi finals..But as far as weather is concerned  we are already in the finals for this years summer and still signs in the models that summer is coming home this year despite the current hiccups  

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Broadly speaking the Ecm 12z is a warm run, indeed predominantly very warm further s / se but it's not a settled run as such, there looks like being some rain or showers, heavy and thundery in places but also plenty of dry and sunny spells, the best of these across the warmer s / e / se.

Broadly speaking, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean concurs.

[Catacol]

Interesting to see the GFS forecast of pacific activity get ever more vague. The relatively tight clustering of GLAAM forecasts a week ago have descended to apparent confusion

Models struggling to pick up pacific trends with any certainty, so NWP output beyond 10 days is definite fantasy at present. Given lag times we could possibly see a very different atlantic profile if Nino imprints on the atmosphere at that point. Looking at longer range trends it can only be a matter of time before it does....so if not mid August then certainly in September I think.

More continental instability and thunder storms would represent a welcome change.

 

 

 

[mb018538]

Morning all,

Probably some of the worst model runs of the summer today, not surprising there's little comment! All of the main runs going unsettled towards next weekend - let's hope that trough doesn't get stuck over the UK.

GEM - yuck



ECM - not great:



GFS - not great either:



Here comes the rain folks!

Edited July 12, 2018 by mb018538

[I remember Atlantic 252]

on the anniversary of the massive washout of 2007, yucky day that

[Snowy L]

Nightmare scenario on all the models this morning, azores high bumping the jet up in the Atlantic and then diving South into the UK.

[markyo]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Morning all,

Probably some of the worst model runs of the summer today, not surprising there's little comment! All of the main runs going unsettled towards next weekend - let's hope that trough doesn't get stuck over the UK.

GEM - yuck



ECM - not great:



GFS - not great either:



Here comes the rain folks!

By far the best output i've seen for weeks,at last some little signs of the jet moving south.,bringing much needed relief!