Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Dominic Carey]

ECM leading the way this morning with warm/hot weather, then UKMO is also good.

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

ECM leading the way this morning with warm/hot weather, then UKMO is also good.

Yes there are very good signs of further heat to come longer term..and of course the increasing heat through the rest of this week is already safely in the bag!

[summer blizzard]

Something of a standoff now developing between the models..

The Euro has the Atlantic in retreat and never gets the cold front through, high pressure just rebuilds. 

The GFS has a rather swift move through even if warm and showery afterward. 

..

My own personal thoughts are that both models are wrong. 

The trade surge that started around the turn of the month in the Pacific should given it's strength reasonably be expected to produce a stronger Atlantic downstream, hence the breakdown (or attempt). The background pattern however is one of high global angular momentum which will tend to draw the Atlantic back a bit. So i don't really see a mean trough over Europe nor high pressure winning. 

The NOAA map looks about right to me with cyclonic south westerlies if you flatten the cyclone and move the Scandi High a bit further south over Europe.

 

Basically.. warm, showery and better in the south and east. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by summer blizzard

[shaky]

And all.of a sudden the atlantic comes to a halt.on the 06z gfs at 144 hours!!seems to be going ecms way right now!!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

And all.of a sudden the atlantic comes to a halt.on the 06z gfs at 144 hours!!seems to be going ecms way right now!!

Looks very similar to the 00z to me - low heights building across the UK region....not a patch on the ECM!

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, at day 6 the trough is lifting out however the secondary piece of energy has already phased more than the Euro and so instead of getting cut off and dying, it gets through. 

[mb018538]

GFS 6z is rotten to the core....throw in the bin please. Worst case scenario.

[mb018538]

ECM ensembles out - and don’t look anything like as bad as the gfs is making out. One of them is going to be seriously wrong here.

No UK based trough here at all at 192:

Not bad at 240:

 

Very interesting by the end:

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 6z is rotten to the core....throw in the bin please. Worst case scenario.

No it isnt, it shows increasing warmth / heat and humidity through the rest of this week, especially further s / e..there's plenty of sunshine to come and then an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms..perfect summer recipe in my book!

Edited July 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 6z is rotten to the core....throw in the bin please. Worst case scenario.

No drought concerns in north east England if it came off either. 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No it isnt, it shows increasing warmth / heat and humidity through the rest of this week, especially further s / e..there's plenty of sunshine to come and then an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms..perfect summer recipe in my book!

Only one caveat, Karl: that an already none-too-good-looking potato crop might end up being ravaged by blight? My bag of chips'll cost about £5!

Edited July 10, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM ensembles out - and don’t look anything like as bad as the gfs is making out. One of them is going to be seriously wrong here.

No UK based trough here at all at 192:

Not bad at 240:

 

Very interesting by the end:

 

What's really interesting about cluster 1 is that it has the negative heights anomaly precariously close to the UK at D11, but it actually withdraws it back into the Atlantic by D13/D14. That suggests something is pushing back at Atlantic troughing. Which would be the kind of scenario where a stable-ish plume can exist, where southerly winds can persist for a few days. The UK would then be precariously positioned, potentially either under a trough or under a plume.

Cluster 2 (not a small cluster at all) looks like a renewed push of heights across NW Europe - a much simpler continuation of our hot summer.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Man With Beard

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No it isnt, it shows increasing warmth / heat and humidity through the rest of this week, especially further s / e..there's plenty of sunshine to come and then an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms..perfect summer recipe in my book!

Yeah but we all know the rest of this week and the weekend is nailed down as decent now....that bit is fine. It’s after where it all goes Pete tong.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 It’s after where it all goes Pete tong.

After that is FI! .enjoy this week, the weekend and into next week first and then see what happens.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yeah but we all know the rest of this week and the weekend is nailed down as decent now....that bit is fine. It’s after where it all goes Pete tong.

But it doesn't go 'Pete Tong' - it merely suggests that, at long last, we might get some much-needed rain to go with all the heat...

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But it doesn't go 'Pete Tong' - it merely suggests that, at long last, we might get some much-needed rain to go with all the heat...

It sure does! But here in East Atacama....I mean Anglia, it doesn't rain anymore, remember?!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Well if the gfs 06z is right id make the most of this week and the weekend before the Atlantic turns into a trough breeding ground. 

[shaky]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks very similar to the 00z to me - low heights building across the UK region....not a patch on the ECM!

Seems to lose it after!!but defo keeps the heat and humidity into next week which it was not doing before!!think its doing what it normally does and struggle when there are heights to our north east!!yesterday had a full on westerly by monday and today its nowhere near that and is way slacker!!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Something of a standoff now developing between the models..

The Euro has the Atlantic in retreat and never gets the cold front through, high pressure just rebuilds. 

The GFS has a rather swift move through even if warm and showery afterward. 

..

My own personal thoughts are that both models are wrong. 

The trade surge that started around the turn of the month in the Pacific should given it's strength reasonably be expected to produce a stronger Atlantic downstream, hence the breakdown (or attempt). The background pattern however is one of high global angular momentum which will tend to draw the Atlantic back a bit. So i don't really see a mean trough over Europe nor high pressure winning. 

The NOAA map looks about right to me with cyclonic south westerlies if you flatten the cyclone and move the Scandi High a bit further south over Europe.

 

Basically.. warm, showery and better in the south and east. 

completely agree .... it would be a rare thing IF the consistent noaa charts are far wrong. both the current ecm (00z) and gfs (06z) have little or no support for their more progressive suggested evolutions.

[matty007]

I’ll take cluster 2 please, with a side order of ECM. As said, cluster 1 is just a plume and then probably complete muck afterwards. 

As usual, I suspect GFS is being way too dramatic. 

[Frosty.]

As expected, the GEFS 6z mean paints a nicer picture than the operational through low res with a north / south split, southern uk having a good deal of fine warm weather thanks to some weak azores ridging which strengthens later,  rather cooler and more unsettled further n / nw due to lower heights to the NW but the next week or so is dominated by warm / very warm surface conditions with plenty of sunshine, especially further s / e but with an increasing risk of potentially thundery showers as time goes on.

[northwestsnow]

Well despite the excellent EC op it seems Exeter are plumping for something more like GFS6Z with the emphasis firmly on unsettled weather spreading to all parts through the coming weekend.

Not a moan from me but somethings going to have to give modelwise , probably very soon.

Im rooting for ECM so again the 12zs will be fascinating.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

the emphasis firmly on unsettled weather spreading to all parts through the coming weekend.

 

So soon?..the models i'm looking at show a warm / very warm weekend, especially further s / e with sunshine and the risk of isolated / scattered heavy showers with thunder.

[Timmytour]

On ‎28‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 07:02, Timmytour said:

I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages.

This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer.

It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"

If you look through the last month you have to say the ECM has been excellent and maybe is the form horse to follow here.

that said, I'm no teleconnections guy but.....

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

So soon?..the models i'm looking at show a warm / very warm weekend, especially further s / e with sunshine and the risk of isolated / scattered heavy showers with thunder.

Yeah i was a bit suprised reading it karl..its hard to tell looking at ukmo model but id suggest at 144 things look like going downhill fairly quickly so i guess they are choosing it over ECM..Like you im a fan of seasonal weather so im rooting for ECM

Saying all that today was supposed to be quite cloudy here and there really isnt a cloud in the sky!!