Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Rocheydub]

Amazing output. I could quite easily live with this more "continental" style climate that we've experienced since February. To be honest (and getting back on topic) the lack of history of such climactic occurrences in our locality, will most likely mean the NWP will struggle to get effective predictions (re: path of ex hurricane) as it always will try to predict the route through our S/W door up to our N/E exit. This is a long way from being resolved. If it does go over our northern shores and not effect us too much, I really do think we will start to see a much more mention of the words "climate change" by meteorologists on the public media channels.

 

Hugely interesting times as a weather enthusiast and hugely interesting MOD thread reading. Thank you all!!!

[damianslaw]

On 06/07/2018 at 21:06, Mike Poole said:

And like yesterday, the models coming out later in the 12 suite look more promising a little longer into the run, so here at T192, the JMA, GFS parallel and FIM9:

I think the message from this is that a breakdown is only a possibility, and at this this stage probably the less likely outcome.

Mean charts suggest a general westerly flow as we enter mid month period, with wettest conditions reserved for NW quarter of the UK, a much more typical profile, but one distinctly absent since late Feb. I've been looking at the jetstream profile forecasts, and there continues to be a signal for it to anchor southwards towards the north of the UK, but hardly in a gusto fashion, indeed it continues to look a ragged affair, and would allow ridge development ahead of it. Longer term, a strong possibility may pull in some form of plume event, with high temps in the east, with the trough struggling to making it through the UK, may just fizzle in situ or sit to the SW.

However, I am expecting a more unsettled second half to July overall, but no appreciable rain away from the NW, which could see some useful precipitation at times, and cooler here, but generally warm elsewhere, possibly hot in the SE for a time later in the month once again. Heights to the NE look like being the dominant factor, and it will be the interplay between the jet and trough and these heights which will most likely play out the rest of the summer, but it is a pattern change, less influence from the azores high, and therefore a greater chance that the jet and trough will break into the UK but possibly become unstuck, trough disruption, cyclonic conditions and plume events could be the order of the day - increased chance of thunder. 

[Frosty.]

So...we have the heat building again following the cooler blip tomorrow, back up to 25c in the south by wednesday and then into the high 20's celsius from thurs through the weekend and into next week and what an encouraging end to the Ecm 12z with yet another surge from the azores high...combine that with the Big swing to continued warm / very warm and largely settled weather in the medium / longer range, at least for southern uk from the GEFS 12z mean..it's been a very good day...again, hope it continues!

To me, the extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks better too with less atlantic trough influence and hints of more support for the azores ridge longer term..as mike said, it's a promising mean chart.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Excellent UKMO/ECM tonight but what are the beeb talking about with confidence of breakdown by saturday?

Totally confused by that.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 but what are the beeb talking about with confidence of breakdown by saturday?

Totally confused by that.

I think that's more to do with next week with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chris..I don't see any problems regarding the coming weekend, it looks very warm with sunny periods and the risk of a few isolated heavy thundery showers.

[JeffC]

35 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

beeb and met office are no longer married.

Indeed, not even friends with benefits...interesting how all the forecasters have access to most of the same models, but interpretation is different

[matty007]

I’m sure this post won’t be popular but I pay little attention to models anyhow. Well, at least at any further out than 4-5 days. Models are just glorified prediction tools generated by computers. A bit like asking a computer to predict the result of a football game based on current trend, but a prediction nonetheless. They are taken way too seriously by some, at way too far out. The notion they can also be opened to interpretation further solidifies how wrong they can prove to be. 

I have the most faith in ECM once in reliable timeframe, but have often known it to be largely accurate at longer out. GFS is often way too pessimistic for my liking. 

[Man With Beard]

At last some useful clusters! 

And it looks like a dead heat between Sandi block and Atlantic breakthrough by D11

and it looks like what you get at D11 is what you'll keep by D15

Just to clarify, cluster 1 looks mainly hot, cluster 2 somewhere between changeable and unsettled

@matty007 - clusters have been awesome this year in the D8-D15 period, they are rarely caught out by developments... shame they don't always update! When they've been certain 10-15 days out, they've been right, and when they've been uncertain, that uncertainty has remained until D4/D5 (e.g. last week). Go back through the last month and count the times they have been wrong. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Man With Beard

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks OK again this morning out to 144 but its hard to see how the UK can avoid the Atlantic thereafter- GFS looks similar at 144 and does indeed bring in more unsettled weather through next week so unless EC throws a big curve ball its reasonable to say this epic warm dry spell of weather will be ending next week.

There will not be any complaints from myself as May,June and the 1st half of July will have been the best for many years IMBY.

Infact, 2018 has produced a fabulous cold spell and a fabulous hot spell, and restored my faith that we can enjoy something much more 'up my street'.

UKMO 850s show a warm to very warm weekend away from the NW- 

Edited July 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks OK again this morning out to 144 but its hard to see how the UK can avoid the Atlantic thereafter- GFS looks similar at 144 and does indeed bring in more unsettled weather through next week so unless EC throws a big curve ball its reasonable to say this epic warm dry spell of weather will be ending next week.

There will not be any complaints from myself as May,June and the 1st half of July will have been the best for many years IMBY.

Infact, 2018 has produced a fabulous cold spell and a fabulous hot spell, and restored my faith that we can enjoy something much more 'up my street'.

UKMO 850s show a warm to very warm weekend away from the NW- 

And it does throw a curveball at 144 hours and looks completely different to ukmo and gfs!!looks better and prolongs the heat even more again!!in all fairness gfs looks completely different at 144 hours compared to what it was showing 24 hours ago and the it still hot and humid close to 168 hours with maybe a bit more showery weather!!think models are struggling and theres still more changes to come!!

[northwestsnow]

Well as my good friend shaky says above- EC does throw a bit of a curveball and keeps most of the UK warm to very warm right through next weekend and into the beginning of the following week as the trough gets ejected north away from the UK!!!

Incredible stuff from ECM !!!

Edited July 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well the noaa charts are useless today, the date has updated but not the chart... says 'updated 9/7 but the charts are yesterdays 8/7.

ok, overnight they have updated their charts after lagging them with the date.

the continue to suggest a stronger upper trough then the ops do.. and are consistent.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

ok, overnight they have updated their charts after lagging them with the date.

the continue to suggest a stronger upper trough then the ops do.. and are consistent.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
 

In ECM we trust mushy

[Frosty.]

Lovely stuff from the Ecm 00z and well into next week looks hot and sticky..stunning charts..the heat goes on and on!!

Edited July 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Very hard again today to know what's going to happen after the weekend, with a smorgasbord of different options!

ECM looks impressive once again though, not much rain and staying warm to very warm/hot in the SE across a large chunk of England & Wales.

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well as my good friend shaky says above- EC does throw a bit of a curveball and keeps most of the UK warm to very warm right through next weekend and into the beginning of the following week as the trough gets ejected north away from the UK!!!

Incredible stuff from ECM !!!

Its like whatever low pressure is about to hit our shores they just dissolve away before impact!!you  can see it happening on the 144 hour chart on ukmo and gfs with pressure trying to build in from the south aswell but just manages to get a bit of the low in!!wouldnt be surprised if gfs looked completely different on the 06z!!

[mb018538]

In fact scrub that, ECM today isn't just impressive, it's incredible! Almost looks too good to be true, it really does.

Edited July 10, 2018 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

Sensational Ecm 00z, next week would be hot across most of the uk..certainly the southern half with plenty more  power to add beyond day 10!!..love it

Edited July 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[Snowy L]

Brilliant ECM and UKMO. GFS goes crazy and develops a Europe-wide low pressure system.

 

Seriously why is it always that model that does stupid stuff like that.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks OK again this morning out to 144 but its hard to see how the UK can avoid the Atlantic thereafter- GFS looks similar at 144 and does indeed bring in more unsettled weather through next week

The Atlantic stays away in the GFS. The unsettled weather is caused by a huge low pressure that moves over the UK from Europe. UKMO does not have that low pressure system.

[bluearmy]

Ec developing cut off low west of Iberia and also se Europe is consistent with extended mean modelling from ec 45 over the past few runs for late July and into august - repeating plumes for nw Europe if we keep the trough far enough west  ??

however, this modelling (and eps) want to drop SLp across Europe and the eastern Atlantic in general (with Atlantic trough/scrussian ridge) - whatever transpires it looks warmer than average.

[mb018538]

The key point on the ECM is that we get yet another cut off trough down across the Biscay/Iberia region....GFS and GEM don't go with this idea at all.

Anyway, the Met update this morning is still siding with the unsettled theme winning out - so until we start to see a bit of a shift there and in the other ensembles, on balance you'd have to say the cyclonic options wins at the moment - as much as I'd love the ECM to come off.

[SMU]

Morning

UKMO again showing a solid plume @144 - The UK being in the firing line, although we could do with a bit more westerly correction...

[Man With Beard]

The ECM op, well, it's just groundhog day all over again by T240, with the familiar UK high and west-of-Iberia low, and heatwave conditions entrenched once again.

Interesting to see how the ECM ensembles have handled the progression for the start of next week. Counting down from T240 (5 days ago) to T144 now, you can see it has been consistent with most things, but notice the strength of heights to the NE, where the orange colours have got deeper and more extensive on each run (yesterday morning seems a little anomalous).

        

Very typical model behaviour in underestimating Scandi heights. That's why what might look unsettled in eastern parts may well end up not being so, as the models progressively discover the strength of blocking to the east.

Personally I'm not sure we're done with the westward corrections yet.

[Froze were the Days]

ECM soon shakes off any notion of somewhat cooler conditions and possibility of some degree of Atlantic conditions...to what we've all been accustomed to over the last month or so - very warm/hot sunny and dry.

As I expected yesterday to be honest.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Froze were the Days