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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

76? 95?... yep, so dont let next weeks cooling off be of a worry.. july 15th 76, 95, 18.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Different summer set up so far in the eastern Pacific as against recent years...that big Pacific ridge has been much further north and west than usual..i wonder if that has had an influence on the weather in Europe?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Big swing towards very warm weather continuing next week too from the GEFS 12z mean, much less influence from the atlantic trough, it's being shunted further NW!

Here's the charts, this would be great news for the south in particular where it would continue warm / very warm for a long time to come..hopefully this trend will continue.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here's the charts, this would be great news for the south in particular where it would continue very warm for a long time to come..hopefully this trend will continue.

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Lovely output so far from UKMO and GEFS this evening more warm/hot weather continuing.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at ECM I don't see a major pattern change yes we may see a few showers but nothing substantial and it remains reasonably warm

ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.e2209d0b279dac4cc40320dcd61c56a5.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.489c1f8a1686a6ab1c9417f1221613c5.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.e5e249bf971941d99a60f07e90fb4011.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.96a3468d214ca9d70f91c98b146b9b36.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Latest re wobble-gate, the ECM has reduced this to a slight rustle for the south at least.  Here at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.2d5fe0f05d7028cbdd7e16e8831a09e1.jpg

And T216:

image.thumb.jpg.c41306a1e2286c0216a005d5fa182066.jpg

and building right back in at the end of the runT240:

image.thumb.jpg.82a335ee3752014805f2327e338c8457.jpg

Never in doubt was it?  Just like the World Cup ⚽

Back to square one this evening !!im loving it the heat just sticks around forever!!!hopefully we can build on it tomorrow morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

Omg no breakdown on ecm, only a reload and so much potential heat building after that 240 hr. This is unbelievable now guys

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Very interesting ecm - probably have to wait until tomorrow though to see if it’s a full swing or just a generous warm outlier. I did post earlier though that some of the ecm clusters were showing higher pressure again from day 12 onwards....who knows in this crazy summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

so to summarise, the 'breakdown' has broken down....no one call the RAC please!.............I was concerned when I saw Steve Murr post earlier though and went straight to the T850 charts to see if the -20C isotherm was inbound, now that would be a breakdown....lol

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i wouldnt count your chickens regarding the non breakdown just yet... much though i hope it doesnt happen.

ill not be happy with it until/unless it gets anomaly support ... then ill get more optimistic

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Just as I had previously stated, and suspected, the 'breakdown' is being nudged further and further away. A outcome we have seen countless times now. Does look still like cooling down from around the 16th to the 20th-21st, but this is still outside reliable time frame, and will more than likely not come off.  

I said before that the following was a impossible, or extremely improbable situation, but could we actually see the first UK summer in history to feature zero unsettled blips or breakdowns of any kind? 

Don't want to get carried away but...England are in the semis of the world cup. Anything can happen right? 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS still struggling on the track of Ex Hurricane Chris at the weekend

GFSOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.542208fff30c88b96806f0ada0575fe1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.a18a6946b4fda13869c2632da25ba9e2.png

More runs needed

You know what, this reminds me of many a situation monitored in winters past. A low approaches the UK directly from the west, heights to the east. And typically, the GFS pushes the low through. But when the UKMO maintains more strength in the ridge, it is usually right. 

So I'd bet on the UKMO being closer to the mark than the GFS tonight - as far as T144 is concerned. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Hiya - thanks

We are in a pattern similar to 1976 Summer / 1995 

1963 Winter -

A quasi-stationary block to the ENE as well   as a nice strong azores high-

A shot at the UK temp record in the next 4 weeks - with a very outside chance of 40c.

Temp anomalies around +5-6c for thr CET at the mo & a high chance of our first 20c CET month...

 

Hi Steve,

I never post in Summer but the synoptics are so like Winter...

On an Irish Facebook weather channel i posted the following a few days ago:

"from what i can see, the same synoptics in general have prevailed since the historic snow storm back at the end of February. In winter this gives snow, in summer sunny and hot. I cannot remember any such prolonged synoptic similarities (easterlies) in all the 40 years i have been weather watching. Is this linked to the slowdown in the North Atlantic drift? This being caused by the speed up in the melting of the Artic ice and Greenland Ice? Could the NAD slowdown be speeding up? We know what this would eventually cause. Perhaps I am being over dramatic. We shall see."
 
Manage
I will probably get technically berated but this is my gut feeling. Duck :)
Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt count your chickens regarding the non breakdown just yet... much though i hope it doesnt happen.

ill not be happy with it until/unless it gets anomaly support ... then ill get more optimistic

well the noaa charts are useless today, the date has updated but not the chart... says 'updated 9/7 but the charts are yesterdays 8/7.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well the noaa charts are useless today, the date has updated but not the chart... says 'updated 9/7 but the charts are yesterdays 8/7.

Maybe they’re just very consistent!!!!  (Which can’t be true Sunday to Monday as pure naefs moves on to take in eps data) 

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39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt count your chickens regarding the non breakdown just yet... much though i hope it doesnt happen.

ill not be happy with it until/unless it gets anomaly support ... then ill get more optimistic

Yes exactly! We were talking (hoping) yesterday that this unsettled interlude would provide some welcome rain before a gradual return to high pressure towards the end of the month. Fast-forward and suddenly we're back discussing the potential 'lack of' breakdown. We'll see if this latest mini-flip has support and consistency over the next couple of days. Whilst caution is still advised, I wouldn't be surprised if the ECM was close to the mark with the 12z output. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This is the mean chart, at T240, from the ECM ensembles, not suggestive  of a resurgent Atlantic pattern.  I think this is a promising mean chart :

image.thumb.jpg.ce10ea73ec5f2a4253fa893678defa1c.jpg

And the FIM9 is showing this at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c82c201b41779621c809030427c6f9ae.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

76? 95?... yep, so dont let next weeks cooling off be of a worry.. july 15th 76, 95, 18.

95.gif

 

That really was a rotten chart for the middle of July 95- there were no online forums then but if there had been people would undoubtedly have been calling summer over!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Pop go the Greenland height rises on the 12z deterministic runs.

I have noticed this happen quite a number of times in the past few months. For some reason the models keep seeing what prove to be false height rises NW of the UK. This has not only seen breakdowns disappear for us, but very dire melting weather disappear for the Arctic.

Even with such a repeating adjustment, though, it will take a few more runs with no height rises to our NW before it can truly be considered yet another example to have taken place this summer.

 

Regardless, I suspect there's a feedback mechanism being underestimated that's related to not just the N Atlantic SST pattern but also the unusual distribution of Arctic sea ice this summer. This mechanism allows a persistent trough complex - like some kind of 'faux polar vortex' to keep recharging itself over and over across and around Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
26 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That really was a rotten chart for the middle of July 95- there were no online forums then but if there had been people would undoubtedly have been calling summer over!

Indeed - though we have no way of knowing if it will just be a blip or something more permanent. That's the worry.

though to me the 'breakdown' just looks like a return to average temperatures anyway and still not much in the way of rain.

Edited by cheese
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