Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Man With Beard]

This morning's ECM more in line with ensembles after D8 it must be said. Anyway, plenty of good weather until then. 

[Methuselah]

Anyone-else ever get the impression that the word 'breakdown' is vastly overused? 

[DIS1970]

Being as the way this spring/summer is going, still can't see this "breakdown" going to plan though, pretty much like many of the bizarre results in the Russian World Cup. (Sorry, just had to bring that in to it!)

[Frosty.]

Unless I'm missing something, the ukmo 00z looks very good out to T+144 hours +...following a slightly cooler but still warm blip it's going to be hotting up again with temperatures back into the high 20's c to low 30's c and this week looks mainly dry with plenty of sunshine across the board...and football's coming home!!!

[Summer Sun]

The track of Ex-Hurricane Chris is clearly not sorted yet as the D7 charts from GFS and UKMO show

GFS

UKMO

[Froze were the Days]

I think the 'breakdown' post day 7 is being vastly exaggerated...a few days or so of Tm air and then somewhat cooler Pm air in the mix and possibly some rainfall particularly the further north and west you are. I can just see this being a minor fly in the ointment of the very warm and dry conditions continuing.

[sixfootdrifter]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think the 'breakdown' post day 7 is being vastly exaggerated...a few days or so of Tm air and then somewhat cooler Pm air in the mix and possibly some rainfall particularly the further north and west you are. I can just see this being a minor fly in the ointment of the very warm and dry conditions continuing.

I’m inclined to agree after paying attention to Tamaras posts recently.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Normally does change after Wimbledon, westerlies and low pressure the common setup from mid Jul to early Sept, should still be warm days though

thought the saying was "wimbledon starts wet but ends dry" .... so im not sure i agree with that assesment old chap

anyway, theres no southerly possibility now on the latest ecm, the tease it had on the 12z has gone on the 00z.  mind you i believe the 6-10 day mean could allow for a transitory southerly blast?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
 

Edited July 9, 2018 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, tomorrow is the coolest day this week with a max of 22 / 23c in favoured areas but nearer 20c for many others. From midweek it warms up again into the mid / upper 20's c across southern uk and there's plenty of dry and sunny weather but an increasing risk of some heavy showers / thunder later this week. Next week becomes much more unsettled with plenty of rain around and temperatures back down to average, below average across the far NW..further ahead it warms up again further s / se with high pressure building to the east but a slow moving complex atlantic trough keeps the w / n generally more unsettled.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

The good news for those of you wanting a swift return to something more settled, there are already ECM members tentatively suggesting this.

At 240 hours, all 51/51 members are cyclonic westerly...

However, as soon as D12 (288 hours) you already have 40% of members with above average heights. That of course means the majority (60%) stick with the unsettled theme, but it’s by no means a done deal.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean you can see how temperatures recover again after tomorrow's blip, mid / upper 20's c return to southern uk and predominantly settled with plenty of sunshine and then further ahead, yes it becomes more changeable, especially further NW but it stays on the warm side further S / SE and it doesn't look particularly unsettled, even further n / nw..it may just be a blip because further ahead the azores high / ridge looks interested in starting to build in again pushing the jet further north.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

 gfs and ecm reminds me of the last week of July 2017. A similar LP stalling just NW of the UK bringing the first write off period of Summer 2017 so far.

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Mike Poole]

So to the 12s, and here's the UKMO, T120 and T144:

I wonder where this is going, the possibility of drawing up a southerly?

 

[Frosty.]

Ukmo 12z looking good out to the end of the weekend, after the dip in temperatures tomorrow, even without being able to view the 850's it's clearly going to warm up significantly again and with a strong ridge lasting most of this week so it looks largely fine with plenty more strong July sunshine to enjoy, pressure starts to fall later so an increasing risk of thundery showers is probable.

[shaky]

Ukmo is beautiful from start to finish with mid to high twenties till the end!!also gfs 12z compared to earlier run at 144 hours has pushed the low slightly further north on the 12z compared to 06z run!!lets hope it keeps nudging northwestwards!!

[northwestsnow]

Excellent ukmo this evening.. looks warm and mainly dry to me

[Djdazzle]

Promising trends on the 12z runs so far. Let’s hope that low pressure either gets shoved north or stalls out west.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO and GFS still struggling on the track of Ex Hurricane Chris at the weekend

More runs needed

[Mike Poole]

Hmmm, yesterday's ECM 12z went for it, tonight's UKMO looks like it might go for it if it ran for longer, GFS at T252, winds from the south! 

Edit, here at T324, just one possibility at this stage:

Edited July 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

As we can see here, following tomorrow's cooler feel, the Gfs 12z operational shows temperatures rising  into the very warm category again across the southern half of the uk during the second half of this week with plenty of dry and sunny weather but an increasing risk of heavy, potentially thundery showers too.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

As we can see here, following tomorrow's cooler feel, the Gfs 12z operational shows temperatures rising  into the very warm category again across the southern half of the uk during the second half of this week with plenty of dry and sunny weather but an increasing risk of heavy, potentially thundery showers too.

A very interesting-looking outlook indeed, Karl: a 'breakdown' from dry, sunny sweaty-bettys to mostly dry, sunny sweat-bettys - with the added chance of meatballs thunderstorms!

[Snowjokes92]

The low gradually been pushed further north west with each run. Keep it like that and that breakdown may go the same way as the last one. It never even happened.experience tells me the models go ott with the low pressure and at a longer range i imagine this circumstance been no different, especially with how summer has panned out

[SMU]

UKMO starting to tug a gentle SE flow at 144

certainly signs of a heat plume heading North out of Spain etc after day 6

[Snowjokes92]

The ukmo 12z is gorgeous, but would stronger heights be likely to build. That low seems close. Would that low have any affect on us? It justs like the low could sweep in still?

 

Actually just had a second glance the low looks like it will stall and strong heights pull up? 168hr chart later should tell more

Edited July 9, 2018 by Snowjokes92

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO starting to tug a gentle SE flow at 144

certainly signs of a heat plume heading North out of Spain etc after day 6

Yes steve, the ukmo 12z T+144 shows signs that a heat plume would extend north beyond day 6