Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

Unsure of what to make of the ECM 12z, here from T144:

But eventually it zooms in on that plume scenario that has been mentioned on here a few times now, but yet to show up on the op runs.  Well, until now.  Interesting.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Decent ecm also, trough tries to move in but with a weak jet and blocking high to the east it never really makes it. 

BBC long ranger tonight says low pressure will make it after next weekend, but seeing the 12z runs tonight you wouldn’t want to put your house on it!

[Man With Beard]

ECM T240... stalled low, no breakdown, straight line southerly... ECM, haven't you had enough!!! 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Decent ecm also, trough tries to move in but with a weak jet and blocking high to the east it never really makes it. 

BBC long ranger tonight says low pressure will make it after next weekend, but seeing the 12z runs tonight you wouldn’t want to put your house on it!

The BBC short and long range forecast always seems to be a day behind current modelling. Just laughable really.

ECM 12z walks a tightrope but the low never makes it.

[mountain shadow]

The feature of the modelling this drought filled Summer is that the models keep putting back any breakdown. 

I really thought that a breakdown was coming after next weekend, now I'm not so sure.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wouldn't put a cucumber on it! 

 Nah save it for a G&T! 

ECM and GFS adding to the uncertainty with this evening's output. More runs needed and it'll be fascinating to see how the situation evolves through next week 

[shaky]

Hot and humid ecm this evening!!the charts just keep getting better and better and keep extending the dry and warmth!!any breakdown just keep getting pushed back each time!!over to the 00zs!!

[Frosty.]

I'm more than happy with the Ecm 12z run, especially the way it ends with the atlantic trough stalling further west and height rises to the NE with the uk bathed in very warm continental air. The run is dominated by the kind of great weather we've become used to this summer..long may it continue!

Edited July 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[Allseasons-Si]

49 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T240... stalled low, no breakdown, straight line southerly... ECM, haven't you had enough!!! 

Good to see this happening....AGAIN!!!,here is the GIF of the ECM,lovely jubbly

the models have been showing a breakdown for weeks now and when it comes to it,it doesn't happen and just goes to show that you cannot rely on model output beyond the reliable,but having saying that,both the gfs and the ecm at 240 hrs is uncanningly similar with a trough stalling in the Atlantic and height's biulding into Scandinavia

last night's cpc showed this at 8-14 days

and this mornings London ens shows another uptick in heat building again mid-month as do the de-built ens

so all in all not a bad set of models again today

good weather,good football,what more can you ask for

come on England

 

 

Edited July 8, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Man With Beard]

ECM temperatures high 20s from Thursday onwards and pushing 30 daily from the weekend until the end of the run. 

If this run verified (of course it won't exactly), it would cement the summer of 2018 as one of the all time greats. By T240, the current heatwave would already have been going three and a half weeks - but T240 would be followed by a direct hit from Spain two days later, which would no doubt be 35C plus. 

Put the low 300 miles east, though, and the heatwave breaks down. 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM temperatures high 20s from Thursday onwards and pushing 30 daily from the weekend until the end of the run. 

If this run verified (of course it won't exactly), it would cement the summer of 2018 as one of the all time greats. By T240, the current heatwave would already have been going three and a half weeks - but T240 would be followed by a direct hit from Spain two days later, which would no doubt be 35C plus. 

Put the low 300 miles east, though, and the heatwave breaks down. 

The models showed this over the last few days,i just hope that tomorrows set of runs continues from todays

Edited July 8, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[markw2680]

Just feels like we have been on holiday abroad for the last few weeks and looks set to continue for the foreseeable, every break down seems to get pushed back day after day not that I’m complaining although is a bit hot for working in. Let’s hope for a real good thunderstorm in the not to distant future. In the meantime let’s look forward to the cool weather on Wednesday if you can call it cool  

[Mike Poole]

The 12z FIM9 exemplifies the brief nature of the 'blip' and even then it's only northern areas might be affected, but by the end of the run, high pressure starting to build back, go summer part two

Attempt to paste animated GIF failed twice so here are two charts from the FIM run, T192 and T240:

 

Edited July 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

My initial conclusion from the 12Zs is that any idea of a breakdown by the end of next weekend is dead in the water. Still looking like there may be a chance of a breakdown by 17/18th (on some outputs). Will it? 

I have found so far this Summer that as soon as the model as the timeframe is over 240 hours they automatically forecast a breakdown...

We will probably still be here at the start of August seeing a breakdown being forecast at T240 still being pushed back  

[Allseasons-Si]

Funny i should say this but i am looking forward to the 18z to see if it shows the stalling low preasure to our west again,just like in the winter month's when we look for a northerly or an easterly or height's pushing into Greenland,i don't normally post in the summer months but this summer has been exceptional so far and i want more

common gfs you can do it

[SMU]

ECM day 10 signifies the doorway to southerly heat - on top of the current wave of hot weather- the +20c isotherm may come knocking..

Similar conditions to prevail for winter with a similar 20c isotherm also knocking for Feb 19

Edited July 8, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 10 signifies the doorway to southerly heat - on top of the current wave of hot weather- the +20c isotherm may come knocking..

Similar conditions to prevail for winter with a similar 20c isotherm also knocking for Feb 19

So glad you mentioned the CFS Steve...

I've posted a bit in the banter thread RE the averaged CFS runs of late.

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

So glad you mentioned the CFS Steve...

I've posted a bit in the banter thread RE the averaged CFS runs of late.

Northerly blocking??...

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Northerly blocking??...

Well defined Euro troughing

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 10 signifies the doorway to southerly heat - on top of the current wave of hot weather- the +20c isotherm may come knocking..

Similar conditions to prevail for winter with a similar 20c isotherm also knocking for Feb 19

With how warm the seas are getting now locally, it would be a very beefy snow machine! 

[mb018538]

Morning model watchers,

Still very big difference around today which aren't helping resolve things after the weekend.

GFS kills the ridge by Sunday, with the trough winning slowly through by day 10:

  

GEM similar:

 

UKMO is much better at 144:



ECM in-between:



In all probability, the trough will probably come into play for a while. For everyone wanting a good splash of rain, your salvation may not be far off:



A few dry-ish spots on there out to day 10, but the majority seeing some significant rain, and the first for over a month in many places.

Edited July 9, 2018 by mb018538

[shaky]

Make the most of the setttled sunny weather this week cos according to the 00z runs from gfs and ecm things go downhill from monday!!not to say it wont change on the 12zs but this was always coming!!cant believe the heat has lasted this long anyway!!

[mb018538]

ECM also has the low as the dominant feature by day 10....but a bit of perspective needed! It’s not a total washout, and much of England and Wales stays relatively mild.

Cooler and more unsettled the further north and west you go.

[Snowyowl9]

The breakdown has been shown for the middle of the month awhile now,and its come forward today,the atlantic returns,could do with some rain then.

[Djdazzle]

Models chopping and chsnging with that LP. Ensembles still not conclusive. I’m sticking to my T120, and it’s not there yet!