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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM playing a yo-yo game with its op runs at the moment - one run sends less settled weather further south, the next one keeps it further north. 

Whatever happens, the past few ECM ensemble runs suggest it will be hard to prevent at least one or two less settled days everywhere between 16th and 20th of July - the south having much more of a chance of missing it, but odds not in favor even here. 

On the flip side, though, very early signs on ensembles yesterday that a new round of riding might attempt to get to the UK immediately after (20-21 July). That's so monstrously far off to look for any detail in, but just a hint that the feared flip for the summer holidays is not the form horse. 

In the near future, that cooler blip for next week continues to look like it was overdone - I'm now fairly optimistic we'll still squeek out daily maximums in the 80+ category all next week now. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Just now, Man With Beard said:

ECM playing a yo-yo game with its op runs at the moment - one run sends less settled weather further south, the next one keeps it further north. 

Whatever happens, the past few ECM ensemble runs suggest it will be hard to prevent at least one or day less settled days everywhere between 16th and 20th of July - the south having much more of a chance of missing it, but odds not in favor even here. 

On the flip side, though, very early signs on ensembles yesterday that a new round of riding might attempt to get to the UK immediately after (20-21 July). That's so monstrously far off to look for any detail in, but just a hint that the feared flip for the summer holidays is not the firm horse. 

In the near future, that cooler blip for next weekend continues to look like it was overdone - I'm now fairly optimistic we'll still squeek out daily maximums in the 80+ category all next week now. 

Has the middle.of the week warmed up further now aswell?!!i remember you mentioning mid week was shown to be cooler from the ecm and then warm up at the end!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Has the middle.of the week warmed up further now aswell?!!i remember you mentioning mid week was shown to be cooler from the ecm and then warm up at the end!!

Raw data shows a 25C somewhere every day now - add the usual 2C and you get 27C. But higher to end week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

And as if by magic the gfs 0z runs are very similar to what we saw at the end of last month and few days ago. Outlier rain spikes, with little support and a main very warm cluster throughout. Where are all the blips going? Its like they never get into reliable time frame. Extroadinary

MT8_London_ens.png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
33 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

Absolutely stunning output this morning yet more warm/hot weather.

Its like we have had to adapt to a continental climate! Like we are just use to it or just expect these last few months. If august gos down hill i wont complain especially how great this summer has been. For some one who is from younger generation, im 25 and for my experience and people around me, this summer is way out on its own as been the best by a massive stretch.

 

The 6z carries on more or less of the same again in reliable time frame. Its hard to believe the output. Some of the runs are toying with another hot spell in the 2nd half of the month too this morning on the gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z operational is brilliant, you have to expect the odd wobble / blip to crop up in a 16 day period but really the week ahead looks great, generally settled under high pressure / strong ridging with plenty of sunshine, a hot start, warm middle and then very warm / hot again later next week and an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms breaking out. Further ahead, a bit of a less warm changeable blip but still plenty warm enough further south and then signs that high pressure would surge in again later..all in all..summery spell to continue!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z runs are trundling out, and we're already having issues!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

A
lot of this is arising from TD 3, and how it interacts with the jet once it reaches the more northerly latitudes. You can see it in the left of this 114 hour frame:

gfs-0-114.png?12

It continues north to merge with the Greenland trough, so by day 6 you have a fairly vigorous summer low:

gfs-0-144.png?12

The only problem is that it looks different to the UKMO at the same point:

UW144-21.GIF?07-18

I'd say until this gets ironed out then anything after is speculative at best.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

First of all..well done England!!!⚽:drunk:

Second of all..I really like how the Gem 12z prolongs the summery weather to the end with plenty of strong ridging and very warm conditions through the week ahead followed by a more humid  thundery spell later in the run.?️

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.png

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Brilliant 12zs so far!!hot weather continues all the way to t144 on ukmo and gfs is less progressive with the trough at 144 hours compared to earlier with hot sunny weather and high pressure over us instead now!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

If you want a summer 12z run that keeps the status quo going, then the GEM is for you. Warm air all the way out to 240, and the trough doesn't dig SE and spoil things:

gem-0-240.png?12

If you want a 12z run that busts us out of the hot and dry regime, then GFS is for you! Trough digs SE and sets up shop over the UK, with plenty of rain and cooler temps:

gfs-0-240.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

 

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z screams a Rest In Peace to Summer 2018. Back to flabby cyclonic conditions.

It's a bit early to write an obituary for summer 2018 based on 1 op run..anyway, another lovely week ahead from the 12z runs, a hot sun / mon then briefly more comfortable then warming up again. Plenty of sunshine to come next week and then an increasing risk of thundery showers breaking out late next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, even hot summers had a break from the heat... so the suggested cooling off/trough dominated spell after next weekend means nothing atm. it might herald a pattern change, but if its like 95 itll come back with avengance. locally we had 11 unbroken days of 25c+ , which i think is possibly the longest unbroken stretch in living memory.

 

20 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm not sure if you mean the air temperature in the N Atlantic, or the sea?  You probably are splitting hairs if you are looking at the models in FI - at the moment they've got a good grasp to day 5ish (earlier in the hot spell I'd have said day 7), after that take with pinch of salt.

Re previous years, I think this year - at least up to now - has more in common with 1976 than 1995.  Ironically I can't really remember 1995, I remember a summer with very brown grass, it was probably that one, I remember 1976 very vividly, even though I was 5 years old!  When I say this year resembles 1976 though, that is in terms of the weather - it can't be the same in terms of impact because 1976 was on the back of a hot dry previous summer and a dry winter, this year that is definitely not true, there won't be a water shortage this summer.  

I think both those summers were briefly punctuated with less settled periods, it would be surprising if this one was different.

What I mean is that the North Atlantic has a cold blob of sea surface temperature anomalies in 2018 compared to 1995 so any time we go into a northwesterly or westerly, it will be much cooler than any attempt of such during 1995 with perhaps quite dramatic cool downs if the winds do go those directions. Not to mention, this cold blob is also more conducive of forming deep depressions than if it wasn't there. If the deep depressions don't occur the rest of this Summer, it's a high chance that Autumn will be stormy as a result of this SST profile in the North Atlantic unless something drastic happens.

I've seen this breakdown scenario appearing numerous times this Summer already, just look at the week that has gone by now. Thunderstorms were meant to come up from Biscay on Sunday 1st July and then we gradually go into a cooler more Atlantic influenced phase. Yeah, that worked out . I also remember the models (specifically the GFS most of all) hinting at a deluge for Friday 15th June 7 days or so before. We're at a similar timeframe to all these pickups on "breakdowns" that we've seen this season. 

Tropical Depression 3 and Beryl are really causing a ruckus in the model output. This is just getting silly at this stage.

Edited by BruenSryan
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
25 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z screams a Rest In Peace to Summer 2018. Back to flabby cyclonic conditions.

how on earth can a model 'scream' anything at T200+ ??.....pop your post in the moans/ramps thread as unless reworded such as 'GFS 12z in isolation on this particular run shows a possiblility, and admittedly, only a potential, for more cyclonic conditions in deep FI which as we all know has as much chance of verifying as t**s on fish' is completely OTT............. I am exaggerating a tad, but sheesh, your post is a bit dramatic to be fair 

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I love how some claim the charts are ending summer 2018. when the next   week or so is showing low 20s to mids 20s and even higher at the end of run, for most of the UK(with plenty of sunshine). and  that will lead us to half way through July.. There will still be at least 7/8 weeks to go after that.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Despite the GEFS 12z mean indicating a more changeable phase in FI it doesn't look terrible does it..temps further south still look pretty warm!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM excellent again into next weekend - looking like the next 8 days at least are now locked into the dry and mainly warm pattern. For those disliking the heat, looks like you’ve got a few days of low to mid twenties to enjoy before next weekend!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm has just blown the ukmo and gfs away this evening in regards to the continuation of the hot sunny weather!!its absolutely fantastic up to 168 hours so far!high pressure slap bang over the uk and hot temps keep on going for us!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Loving the Ecm 12z run so far, no sign of the phantom breakdown!..plenty more very warm sunny weather to come.

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Liking the ECM 12z so far, better than the other models, here T144 to T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3763122d5c3ad1034f87a5e11f032051.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a13ccfce7186e4711daf6eb74f9671d7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3a0d0f922e58d911dcc2355a48968f5d.jpg

Not really bothered what the last two charts show as they are beyond the reliable.  

Re the issue regarding sea surface temperatures @BruenSryan, I've got no idea what they were  like in 1995, but just now in terms of anomaly, they are still in a configuration that the Met Office suggested in their contingency planners forecasts increased the likelihood of high pressure over the UK, specifically warmer than average local to UK, cooler over the western North Atlantic.

image.thumb.jpg.5d1e5058d8bf8d0237a6ef2516a9241d.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

 

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Liking the ECM 12z so far, better than the other models, here T144 to T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3763122d5c3ad1034f87a5e11f032051.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a13ccfce7186e4711daf6eb74f9671d7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3a0d0f922e58d911dcc2355a48968f5d.jpg

Not really bothered what the last two charts show as they are beyond the reliable.  

Re the issue regarding sea surface temperatures @BruenSryan, I've got no idea what they were  like in 1995, but just now in terms of anomaly, they are still in a configuration that the Met Office suggested in their contingency planners forecasts increased the likelihood of high pressure over the UK.

image.thumb.jpg.5d1e5058d8bf8d0237a6ef2516a9241d.jpg

great ECM tonight more warmth/hot weather to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I suspect ECM will be absolute best case scenario this evening.

So different to UKMO at 144 ..

Obvs i hope ECM is correct , 00z runs will likely reveal all..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is probably the best run for a couple of days.

Big low over the east of Europe again by day 10, deep low over the pole. Looking like summer would roll on if it came off.

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