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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Ecm setting up a north south split, though it appears all areas would see some rain.

Gardeners and growers may see their salvation in the not too distant future!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM 12z pretty aggressive with the trough but the jet angle looks about right for the changed-up Pacific forcing.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z looks great this weekend into the start of next week in terms of heat and sunshine, temps then dip slightly as we progress further into next week but pressure stays high with more fine, warm and sunny weather and then it warms up further later next week, especially further south. Eventually it turns into a north / south split with still plenty of decent weather for the south, indeed very warm / hot air is still flirting with the south / southeast even at T+240 hours...the more unsettled and cooler weather is generally further n / nw.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995.

However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything.

Am I splitting hairs?

archives-1995-7-15-0-0.png

Edited by BruenSryan
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And like yesterday, the models coming out later in the 12 suite look more promising a little longer into the run, so here at T192, the JMA, GFS parallel and FIM9:

image.thumb.jpg.79e83f555d818e34f94222bb97c0fdc3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e448fe9ea70037a9dd6431cb03c66346.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.be485e5030cef5ed1e650de08967f813.jpg

I think the message from this is that a breakdown is only a possibility, and at this this stage probably the less likely outcome.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, BruenSryan said:

Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995.

However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything.

Am I splitting hairs?

archives-1995-7-15-0-0.png

I'm not sure if you mean the air temperature in the N Atlantic, or the sea?  You probably are splitting hairs if you are looking at the models in FI - at the moment they've got a good grasp to day 5ish (earlier in the hot spell I'd have said day 7), after that take with pinch of salt.

Re previous years, I think this year - at least up to now - has more in common with 1976 than 1995.  Ironically I can't really remember 1995, I remember a summer with very brown grass, it was probably that one, I remember 1976 very vividly, even though I was 5 years old!  When I say this year resembles 1976 though, that is in terms of the weather - it can't be the same in terms of impact because 1976 was on the back of a hot dry previous summer and a dry winter, this year that is definitely not true, there won't be a water shortage this summer.  

I think both those summers were briefly punctuated with less settled periods, it would be surprising if this one was different.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Still no clear breakdown shown. How long can the settled spell go on for?

Given how far north the jet is, and how docile the Atlantic is, coupled with the generous Azores...quite a while. 

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich

I know it’s only one run and it’s the 18z GFS, but it already has everything pushed further east even at this early stage. Roll on heatwave 2018

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

As I said before, the chances of going an entire Summer with no sniff of a unsettled blip is pretty much impossible on this island. It would be unprecedented and has never happened before. All the greatest summers have had minor blips and this one will be no different. We will undoubtedly get one, the question is when, and for how long? 

I am going against some of the models and saying that the second half of July will carry on mostly fine, and the ‘breakdown’ we are seeing will slowly fizzle out the closer we get, as has happened many times during this lovely Summer. Albeit it will probably be a little cooler with slightly more cloud. 

I am personally seeing no immediate danger of a Atlantic incursion on these models, and with my own instinct. 

If you’re looking for a breakdown, it will most likely occur in August at some point. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
19 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

I know it’s only one run and it’s the 18z GFS, but it already has everything pushed further east even at this early stage. Roll on heatwave 2018

Yup gfa 18z continues where the gfs 12z left off!!betteer than ecm for sure!!heat continues into next weekend!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS 18z significant improvement compared to some of the earlier 12z runs here at T168, T192, T216:

image.thumb.jpg.0bd5c41210a82c8b4729e3f012701ab8.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f2351f9b215a1000d4bcc9b1e793d234.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3470a551a1b234a0559180d9d5d4ca24.jpg

No massive breakdown, a col yes, but more runs needed to see where we go from here, or even if we get to here!

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z significant improvement compared to some of the earlier 12z runs here at T168, T192, T216:

image.thumb.jpg.0bd5c41210a82c8b4729e3f012701ab8.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f2351f9b215a1000d4bcc9b1e793d234.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3470a551a1b234a0559180d9d5d4ca24.jpg

No massive breakdown, a col yes, but more runs needed to see where we go from here, or even if we get to here!

9 days is still too far out to be anywhere near reliable to me. I don’t pay them much attention until the sub 6/5 day mark. We have seen these mini breakdowns come to nothing many times now this summer. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if the UK is filled with red and not yellow in a few days time. You can go from 20c and rain/cloud to 35c sunny and clear in a matter of days. 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, matty007 said:

9 days is still too far out to be anywhere near reliable to me. I don’t pay them much attention until the sub 6/5 day mark. We have seen these mini breakdowns come to nothing many times now this summer. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if the UK is filled with red and not yellow in a few days time. You can go from 20c and rain/cloud to 35c sunny and clear in a matter of days. 

Yep, absolutely, see my post a few up re how far ahead we can trust the models, but the important thing about the 18z is the trend away from the breakdown some of us are sceptical of, rather than the details of the D7,8,9 charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFS 0z shows a good deal of warm to very warm weather right up to the end of the run. Maybe cooler in the north at times. Some rain but not a lot.

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 0z shows a good deal of warm to very warm weather right up to the end of the run. Maybe cooler in the north at times. Some rain but not a lot.

Yup could not agree any more. Just to add high pressure rebuilding into low res so overall a very good run. Good start to the day, let’s hope it continues ⚽???????

Also UKMO right thru to 144 looks pretty darn good too!!!!

Edited by mother nature rocks
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 6 charts

UKMO/GFS/GEM

UW144-21.GIF?07-07   gfs-0-144.png   gem-0-144.png?00

Some differences regarding the Atlantic profile, the GFS already showing a trough pushing down on the Azores high, the UKMO is similar but a far weaker set up whilst the GEM still has the Azores ridge pushing into the UK. All three do break off a surface high which then sets up to our east which firstly cuts off the feed from the north sea and also allows the ridge over Europe to rebuild northwards so an improvement in temperatures is likely after a cooler down early next week. Rain still looks rather scarse though a few showers are possible and there are question marks on how close any Atlantic fronts get to the UK and as such if anyone gets any rain from them.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Lovely ukmo 00z this morning, high pressure / strong ridging, plenty of strong sunshine and warmth still to look forward to..an England ⚽ win today would be the icing on the cake!.:drinks:

UKMOPEU00_72_1.png

UKMOPEU00_96_1.png

UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM looking mainly fine and dry, with a ridge over most of the UK out to day 7 - warming up into next weekend too after a cooler interlude midweek. Still very little (if any) rain on offer, especially further south and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Sadly it goes a bit pear shaped at day 9 and 10, but these are so far away they are liable to change again. Another week looking good anyway!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadly it goes a bit pear shaped at day 9 and 10, but these are so far away they are liable to change again. Another week looking good anyway!

It’s been at day 9 and 10 for the past 4 days and never seems to be getting closer.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Somebody brought this up with me, look how Summer 1995 "ended" in mid-July 1995.

However, the north Atlantic is much colder in 2018 compared to 1995. That mid-July 1995 low was heavy thundery showers. The models here for FI are suggesting damp conditions more than anything.

Am I splitting hairs?

archives-1995-7-15-0-0.png

yep, even hot summers had a break from the heat... so the suggested cooling off/trough dominated spell after next weekend means nothing atm. it might herald a pattern change, but if its like 95 itll come back with avengance. locally we had 11 unbroken days of 25c+ , which i think is possibly the longest unbroken stretch in living memory.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
30 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s been at day 9 and 10 for the past 4 days and never seems to be getting closer.

Was just gona say the same thing!its as if by magic the breakdown disappears!!ecm is much better this morning again!!hot and sunny all the way up to 200 hours!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was just gona say the same thing!its as if by magic the breakdown disappears!!ecm is much better this morning again!!hot and sunny all the way up to 200 hours!!

It's a wonderful Ecm 00z for pretty much the whole 10 days..high pressure / strong ridging..tons of sunshine, generally warm / very warm..hot at first and again later!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a wonderful Ecm 00z for pretty much the whole 10 days..high pressure / strong ridging..tons of sunshine, generally warm / very warm..hot at first and again later!

More like it frosty!!!!

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