Model output discussion 14/04/18

[shaky]

Fantastic gfs and ukmo this morning!!high looks ever so slightly further east and the low cloud the gfs was showing for next week looks like staying in the north sea now but could still change again!!this is unreal weather it really is!!makes me think the ecm was on a rogue one yesterday!!

[bluearmy]

Looking into the extended and August I would look back and note

 semi permanent sceuro upper ridge which saw us through late April, May and into early June (where we had upper lows diving into Iberia and promoting repeated plumes across nw Europe ) 

models wanted to retrogress this upper ridge to sit to our west. A few on here wondered if that was a bit too far and the possibility that it could sit over nw Europe.  This is what has happened with the systems generally going around the top and bringing some respite from the heat to Scandinavia (certainly the eastern part).  

now we see the extended euro modelling wanting to drift  back to the sceuro upper ridge last third July and beyond.  I am a bit sceptical on this if the background in the Pacific is changing although seasonal wavelength changes may mean it is different but looks pretty similar .... perhaps more scandi ridge than sceuro ridge. 

i dont see August being the same as second half June and first half July ....... not as settled. could stay hot though more squeaky bum as we edge closer to an Atlantic upper trough. 

[mother nature rocks]

Gfs looks pretty sublime this morning. A possible ‘blip’ of a breakdown around 18-21 July but yet again high pressure looks ready to pounce. Then again a jump of about 500 miles further east we will never be out of it. 

What a cracking late spring/ summer this is turning out to be!!

As I said the other day all this heat should be hard to displace!!

[mb018538]

ECM is absolutely fantastic this morning - 10/10!

[shaky]

Ecm is just brilliant today!!what a turnaround from last night!!you can forget about rain for pretty much forever on that run lol!!hot and sunny all the way to the end and also in the short to medium term high pressure more over the uk so low cloud less of an issue hopefully!!

Edited July 6, 2018 by shaky

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is absolutely fantastic this morning - 10/10!

And another shift back to something warmer next week - never below mid 20s in the south, back towards 30 by the weekend. 

[Frosty.]

Mods look great this morning..I mean the models look great..plenty more very warm / hot dry and sunny weather to come!

Edited July 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Mods look great this morning..I mean the models look great..plenty more very warm / hot dry and sunny weather to come!

Just look at that 144 ukmo chart....tropical system shown off the eastern seaboard to be quite a sizeable feature....ecm making much less of this. I’m guessing until this is properly resolved it’s going to be tough to work out where we stand.

[Snowy L]

43 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Gfs looks pretty sublime this morning. A possible ‘blip’ of a breakdown around 18-21 July but yet again high pressure looks ready to pounce. Then again a jump of about 500 miles further east we will never be out of it. 

What a cracking late spring/ summer this is turning out to be!!

As I said the other day all this heat should be hard to displace!!

Just got flashbacks reading that. Remember our monster cold pool that was displaced by a flabby low with no jet stream directing it in March? We learned the hard way that does not mean anything.

[MildCarlilse]

55 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Gfs looks pretty sublime this morning. A possible ‘blip’ of a breakdown around 18-21 July but yet again high pressure looks ready to pounce. Then again a jump of about 500 miles further east we will never be out of it. 

What a cracking late spring/ summer this is turning out to be!!

As I said the other day all this heat should be hard to displace!!

Actually all it took to 'displace this heat' was a small cold front which moved across Scotland yesterday.

Edited July 6, 2018 by MildCarlilse

[Uncle_Barty]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just got flashbacks reading that. Remember our monster cold pool that was displaced by a flabby low with no jet stream directing it in March? We learned the hard way that does not mean anything.

It was displaced because the HLB quickly retrogressed west from Scandinavia, taking away the easterly flow.

[Guest]

I think Arpege is best ignored at the moment, seems that it used to be a good model in the 48/72hrs range however its gone all a bit 'NAVGEM'. Its high temps are brought about by by its 850's being 5-6C higher than the other models and appears to struggle to radiate heat overnight - its currently showing over Dorset for Sunday into Monday 33C @ 00Z with a min of 26C @ 06Z clearly ridiculous. 

[Man With Beard]

31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think Arpege is best ignored at the moment, seems that it used to be a good model in the 48/72hrs range however its gone all a bit 'NAVGEM'. Its high temps are brought about by by its 850's being 5-6C higher than the other models and appears to struggle to radiate heat overnight - its currently showing over Dorset for Sunday into Monday 33C @ 00Z with a min of 26C @ 06Z clearly ridiculous. 

You could be right. To me, ARPEGE is brilliant at frontal rain and, actually, it is brilliant at temperatures in some circumstances - but has a few weaknesses. Particularly with predicting temperatures in the south west beyond T36, for some bizarre reason! 

[Polar Maritime]

Net-Wx MR showing temps cooling a little as winds turn N/E for the start of the new week, With the far South holding on to temps in the Low/Mid 20's and high teens for the North. Nights should be cooler and more pleasant for sleeping at least.. The dry outlook continues.

 

Edited July 6, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Dominic Carey]

Fantastic output this morning from the main 3 models more warmth to come!’

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Net-Wx MR showing temps cooling a little as winds turn N/E for the start of the new week, With the far South holding on to temps in the Low/Mid 20's and high teens for the North. Nights should be cooler and more pleasant for sleeping at least.. The dry outlook continues.

 

I certainly hope that's wrong as 16C at midday in July would be atrocious!

[mb018538]

6z gfs best ignored....turns into a horror show at the end!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6z gfs best ignored....turns into a horror show at the end!

 

Not that bad, 'at least it will be mild' sunshine with chance of showers maybe thundery

[Singularity]

GLAAM is rising... and then some!

In light of this, I am perplexed by GFS' determination in the 9+ day range to give the polar jet a NW-SE orientation resulting in the Atlantic trough disrupting and sliding SE to take up residence near or over the UK. I am of the impression that the Atlantic trough should hang back to the NW while our rain chances come from lows moving up from the S every now and then (with ridges in between offering potential for very warm or hot conditions for S UK in particular) - but I do come with the caveat that my reading of things is not as reliable as Tamara's as I don't get much time to look over it these days.

How often we deal with such continental exports will depend on how far south and west the Scandinavian high reaches, as this should become a persistent feature.

[ChezWeather]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I'm not ignoring it and it's not a horror show, it shows something most of the uk desperately needs..RAIN!!!!!

We don't desperately need rain, we desperately need a heatwave lasting until the end of August 

GFS 6z looking good up to +240 

[Djdazzle]

The 6z is actually a warmer run up to 180. What happens in the run after thst is totally irrelevant, although even up to 240 it’s good. Why people get hung up with fantasy charts is beyond me!

[SizzlingHeat]

Any low pressure is well into FI. Again today the main models have shifted the so called 'breakdown' to the week of the 16th whereas it was showing the latter part of next week until today. I cant see how the 6z will verify in FI with the low pressure domination. As long as it stays well away and not into the reliable timeframe I will pay no attention to it. Another 7-10 days of dry sunny and warm weather (sometimes hot) for the majority. No sign of a breakdown or change just yet. 

And I agree....no we dont need rain!!! Its summer and rain can do one until the end of sept at the earliest then it can rain for as long as it wants!!! Until December and it turns to snow of course!!

Loving this dry, continental weather!

[Summer Sun]

Was on Look North last night Cumbria could see a hosepipe ban in 2 weeks unless they get some rain

[Man With Beard]

Still just one cluster in the ECM ensembles, so back to figuring it out from the individual ones.

By 18th July, we have about 60% members looking changeable for all, 20% with a north/south split, and 20% fine for all.

By the end of the run at the 21st July, it's rather more evenly spread between more settled / less settled members. 

So a reasonable signal for an Atlantic driven period after next weekend, even if just for a few days. 

[Frosty.]

Don't get me wrong, I'm loving this hot settled weather, think I've more than proved that recently!! but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates a change around mid July to something more unsettled..or at least more changeable with some welcome rain for most of us!

Edited July 6, 2018 by Frosty.