Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Singularity]

FYI - ECM 12z has low 20s widely as the weak cold boundary moves through and brings more in the way of cloud, but on Wednesday it's back to the mid-20s for many central parts. Still low-20s elsewhere though - but this model does tend to underestimate by about as much as GFS does so it could still be properly warm (but not hot) even there, as the flow off the North Sea doesn't look all that strong (at least on this run...) and the waters have warmed a fair bit since the trouble that took place in May, so low cloud should tend to burn away for the middle part of each day for most - as has been seen with the most recent easterlies.

Things then warm up a bit further for England and the eastern half of Wales Thursday-Friday, as we switch to a westerly flow with tropical maritime air imports. Cooler elsewhere though, with an increasing risk of showers. This makes a move toward the southeast during the weekend, but has a bit of a struggle as the Nino forcing starts to kick in a bit more (remember what Tamara indicated as to where the ridges will start to be more favoured than we've seen in recent times). The picture would be a whole lot clearer if it wasn't for the slack 'heat low' over France on day 10; that really needs to be cleared away one way or another. As I said before, this could well coincide with the first attempted Atlantic trough advance, and so bring some widespread useful rainfall to much of E&W in particular - something to keep an eye on.

p.s. It would be funny if it turned out GEM was right after all to keep that low from dropping down through Scandinavia and the Tue-Fri period ended up almost as hot as it was once looking, but the support is so strong from the other models that it would be very daring to bet against the fresher outcome this evening.

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

RIP summer according to ECM. Enjoy this weekend. Its downhill from then. Cant complain, its been a great spell of weather after all

Eh? Remains very warm for far south and east. A lot of hot air in nearby continent, best is yet to come. 

undoubtedly there will be some much cooler days for the N/W particularly but I don’t see this lasting long before pressure reasserts itself I don’t see a true breakdown could be a blip we’ll see. 

Edited July 5, 2018 by Daniel*

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Eh? Remains very warm for far south and east. A lot of hot air in nearby continent, best is yet to come. 

undoubtedly there will be some much cooler days for the N/W particularly but I don’t see this lasting long before pressure reasserts itself I don’t see a true breakdown could be a blip we’ll see. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

if  fantasy world right ]pssible breck dowm anytime about July 18 onwards

 

 

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Eh? Remains very warm for far south and east. A lot of hot air in nearby continent, best is yet to come. 

undoubtedly there will be some much cooler days for the N/W particularly but I don’t see this lasting long before pressure reasserts itself I don’t see a true breakdown could be a blip we’ll see. 

I logged in just to post that, Daniel. I haven`t posted since winter but keep an eye on here and that made me come out of hibernation.

That was a totally IMBY post. The Southeast looks to be around mid 20`s after looking at the tail end of the ECM 850`s. Heck that trough could even have a lesser impact than currently modeled. This period of weather has been exceptional for the UK in relation to recent years but knee jerking at a model run is annoying to read.

Summer over? Meh.

[northwestsnow]

Well it would seem this low moving through scandy next week is causing one or two model headaches tonight- 

It would appear this prevents 'our' high pushing into central Europe and opens the door for the trough to the NW to sink south west towards the UK, it never really makes it by day 10 but is just far enough south to allow some less warm air from the north to effect Scotland in particular-

UKMO pick of the 3 tonight at 144- 

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

RIP summer according to ECM. Enjoy this weekend. Its downhill from then. Cant complain, its been a great spell of weather after all

One of the more amusing posts this evening  Tell me how can you call the rest of summer based on one model run that only goes 10 days ahead? 

[Man With Beard]

Great summary @Singularity of the ECM

It's still swings and roundabouts overall. 2 days ago it was going for 90F all week, since then 2 or 3 more average days, but tonight just one closer to average day before warming up again. 

The cooler weather is dependent on the strength of fronts. Difficult to nail so far out. Probably more swings to come in the next 48 hours. However, it looks harder and harder for northern areas to stay hot as we progress through next week. Southern areas could yet hang on till the end of the run.

In the meantime, though, 4 days coming up which will push the 90F mark. 

[SizzlingHeat]

4 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

One of the more amusing posts this evening  Tell me how can you call the rest of summer based on one model run that only goes 10 days ahead? 

It was a light hearted, joke based on one model run. It wasnt meant to be taken literally. Lighten up

[Mike Poole]

Here's another three that extend the settled warm spell to T192, which is well beyond the reliable.  I would still call the breakdown scenario as the outsider at the moment, GFS parallel, FIM and JMA:

Interesting to see which way this goes, as there is obviously much uncertainty beyond about day 5 or 6.  My bet is continuation of the heat, after slightly less hot period.

[StormChaseUK]

Models don't know what to do about next week it seems

[Mike Poole]

A wry ghostly smirk from the atlantic on the ECM ensemble spread at T72, does this mean anything?

Edited July 5, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Based on what our resident model-experts are saying, what the models are saying, and what the teleconnectionists are hinting at...I'd guess that the ultimate breakdown will occur one week either side of the August bank holiday? And, knowing our luck - the wrong side!

[Frosty.]

Looking on the bright side as I usually do..I mean who wants to read what a miserable so and so has to say!..The models show things hotting up again with high pressure building in strongly. The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks great in the reliable timeframe so there's plenty more hot and sunny weather to enjoy..well into next week!

[shaky]

49 minutes ago, Singularity said:

FYI - ECM 12z has low 20s widely as the weak cold boundary moves through and brings more in the way of cloud, but on Wednesday it's back to the mid-20s for many central parts. Still low-20s elsewhere though - but this model does tend to underestimate by about as much as GFS does so it could still be properly warm (but not hot) even there, as the flow off the North Sea doesn't look all that strong (at least on this run...) and the waters have warmed a fair bit since the trouble that took place in May, so low cloud should tend to burn away for the middle part of each day for most - as has been seen with the most recent easterlies.

Things then warm up a bit further for England and the eastern half of Wales Thursday-Friday, as we switch to a westerly flow with tropical maritime air imports. Cooler elsewhere though, with an increasing risk of showers. This makes a move toward the southeast during the weekend, but has a bit of a struggle as the Nino forcing starts to kick in a bit more (remember what Tamara indicated as to where the ridges will start to be more favoured than we've seen in recent times). The picture would be a whole lot clearer if it wasn't for the slack 'heat low' over France on day 10; that really needs to be cleared away one way or another. As I said before, this could well coincide with the first attempted Atlantic trough advance, and so bring some widespread useful rainfall to much of E&W in particular - something to keep an eye on.

p.s. It would be funny if it turned out GEM was right after all to keep that low from dropping down through Scandinavia and the Tue-Fri period ended up almost as hot as it was once looking, but the support is so strong from the other models that it would be very daring to bet against the fresher outcome this evening.

What are the temps looking like for england for thursday and friday on the ecm!!!judging from what youve just mentioned it looks like wednesday is the only cool day and either side of that its hot and sunny for england and wales at least!!

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Winter80s said:

BBC I Know! Weather for Week Head Goes for minor cool down middle week then hot again by next Weekend.  Lets hope so.

That's what the GEFS 12z mean suggests, very warm then less warm blip midweek with temps in the low 20's c then very warm again..across england and wales..however, some perturbations keep it very warm all next week across southern uk..anyway, in the short term it's becoming hotter and anticyclonic..happy days!

Edited July 5, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

TBH thats an excellent EC mean !

Temps low to mid 20s for England and wales most days next week i would guess-  perhaps a little cooler into Scotland.

I suspect the op maybe overdoing the scandy trough

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SizzlingHeat said:

It was a light hearted, joke based on one model run. It wasnt meant to be taken literally. Lighten up

 

Then my apologies, it was difficult to discern that from your original post  Might be the microscopic emojis that are tricky to see if they're laughing or gritting teeth! 

Anyway, as others have stated, decent means this evening and not forgetting the very warm / hot weekend to come before next week's uncertainties 

[Man With Beard]

45 minutes ago, shaky said:

What are the temps looking like for england for thursday and friday on the ecm!!!judging from what youve just mentioned it looks like wednesday is the only cool day and either side of that its hot and sunny for england and wales at least!!

Raw ECM temps southern UK: 24-25 for Thursday, 27-29 for Friday... probably needing to add the usual 2 or 3 degrees for the actual outcome. 

Rather a long way off under circumstances. 

[matty007]

That 22-23c next mid week is going to feel quite the shock . Nice to see it rebuilding though. Something that seldom happens in the UK. 

Only thing I’m disappointed with is the amount of cloud that looks on the cards. These crystal blue skies have been quite the tonic. 

I’m banking on this heat and HP to keep rebuilding to keep us in this bliss and a once in a lifetime settled Summer. 

One things for sure, when it finally does breakdown, it’s going to come really hard. I’ve grown so accustomed to this weather. Let’s hope it’s closer to October than August when it finally happens. You can give me the muck come Autumn. Please just let me have this Summer, weather gods

Edited July 5, 2018 by matty007

[Frosty.]

The much maligned Gem could be on to something regarding later next week, albeit not as good as the week ahead forecast..hope darren bett is right about the hot southerly..would be great to see some major heat..mid 30's celsius heat!

[Scandinavian High.]

The hot dry spell is set to go on a little cooler midweek but still warm hotting up later next week no rain in sight..

[Man With Beard]

58 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Yes, it's a bit of a disappointment really, but look on the bright side! We've had a long time of this great weather and the plants really need some watering, grass down south is yellow! I would be pleased for some rain soon.

ECM tonight had very little rain in next 10 days, and none at all for some areas in the SE. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Really don't know what GFS is on to here but seen this in a few runs now. Cant see any 1976/95 style turn out this summer if this chart comes off.

Edited July 5, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Really don't know what GFS is on to here but seen this in a few runs now. Cant see any 1976/95 style turn out this summer if this chart comes off.

I wouldn't worry about that at the moment, it's so far beyond the time span we can have confidence in the op runs at the moment actually, in the light of recent output the  pub run sits reasonably well, good at T210:

[matty007]

July 21st (coincidentally my birthday) is way too far out to get at all worried, especially over extreme looking setups such as that. 

While I do believe it will cool down and turn more cloudy in the next fortnight, there is no reason to believe that that will remain the case. The jet is in a perfect position to allow a rebuild and the Atlantic seems docile. It is just as likely that the period around the 20th will turn out to be very warm/hot and sunny. We have seen breakdowns shown many times during this spell, only to disappear closer the time, or wither out. 

But what Phil says is true. Fact is, even the greatest summers have periods of less appealing weather. To have none would almost be impossible. If the patchy cloud of the next week or so and 23c midweek is the peak of that less appealing weather then we are in for something truly great.