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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

What are everyone's thoughts on conditions after July 14th?

Certainly nothing nailed down yet, GFS 0z looked settled, 6z showing unsettled. 

ECM out to 240 looking good

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

What are everyone's thoughts on conditions after July 14th?

Certainly nothing nailed down yet, GFS 0z looked settled, 6z showing unsettled. 

ECM out to 240 looking good

If the GEFS 6z mean is anything to go by, gradually trending more changeable as the azores ridge influence decreases with slightly lower heights for the uk with temperatures falling back closer to average but nothing really unsettled shown..it would still be warm across the south with temperatures at least into the low 20's celsius and nearer to mid 20's at times for the s / se where the best of the dry and bright weather would be. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Models look to be really struggling to get a handle on the upcoming MJO initialisation; both GEFS and EPS have a wide spread of timing and location across the perturbations.

For what it's worth, the GEFS mean has initialisation in about 8 days time over western Indonesia, and the EPS mean in about 9 day's time over eastern Indonesia.

The adjusted EPS is faster to initiate and also has a greater gain in amplitude. The adjusted GEFS has gone AWOL so nothing to interpret there.

 

Historical precedent suggests that the adjusted EPS should be closest to reality, which is encouraging given that eastward propagation of the MJO will help to sustain the emerging Nino-like atmospheric state.

While we wait, I can see some room for a more unsettled or at least changeable interlude around mid-month giving more widespread rainfall, but there's also a lot of inertia to the change in tropical forcing taking place so this is with low confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

GFS and UKMO showing a significant cool off next week with average to slightly above average tenperatures.

Probably cool and cloudy near the east coast with a NE drift.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Gahhhhh yet another east/northeasterly setting in through next week! This time cooling things down for all through midweek.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12z looks very good to me, another great weekend coming up too, generally very warm / hot dry and sunny with high pressure domination and even by next midweek a strong ridge covering the uk..this prolonged very summery spell to continue with no sign of the atlantic returning..it's blocked with high pressure!:D

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Gahhhhh yet another east/northeasterly setting in through next week! This time cooling things down for all through midweek.

This one however will be different, in fact whilst this may end up being a blip this development during the start of next week would constitute a breakdown. A cold front move south through the UK Sunday night and during Monday (The south seeing one last very warm or hot day) before conditons are back closer to normal by Tuesday with sunshine and a few showers developing inland.

The GEM so far is the only one trying to keep the heat going across the west at the very least by taking the low over the weekend well away from Scandinavia and thus not allowing the trough to our east to erode the ridge near the UK which allows cooler air to sink southwards.

gem-0-96.png?12

 

UKMO and GFS for the same time.

UW96-21.GIF?05-18   gfs-0-96.png?12

Both dropping the cold pool south through Norway which is close enough to affect the UK.

Still not a lot of rain on offer, but these two offer a generally cooler week with more cloud and the risk of some light rain or a few showers. 

Arpege still showing temperatures reaching the 30C widely over the next couple of days with the highest temperatures this year still potentially under threat with London/SE with the best chance.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks lovely this evening.

GFS also temps low 20s next week for much of the UK..

Looks great to me :)

Otherwise known as normal July weather..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks lovely this evening.

looks great to me :)

The ukmo looks great to me too, I'm surprised by a few comments.. I must be looking at different charts..the MO think next week will be very warm and quite sunny too!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

Well I dunno if I'm coming or going

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, cheese said:

Otherwise known as normal July weather..

LOL cheese im from west of the pennines and you should know temps in the low 20s isnt normal here

Will be interesting to see EC tonight although i can understand why those in the east might be a little concerned by the low moving south through scandy next week :)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Finally the UK charts from the Arpege are coming out, just as hot as the ones I posted 24 hours ago.

arpegeuk-41-27-0.png?05-18   arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?05-18   arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?05-19

Probably 30/31C in favoured spots tomorrow but low thirties possible across a good chunk of central/southern England over the weekend so another hot weekend. Very warm on Saturday elsewhere away from western Scotland whilst on Sunday we see that front begin to edge into the north of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 12z is anticyclonic heaven for most of the run and predominantly very warm / hot and sunny but then after early next week it becomes a bit more refreshing in the east for a time with low 20's c and it then hots up again for a time later with a very humid thundery plume / low from the south at the end of next week..very summery.

120_mslp500 (1).png

216_mslp850.png

222_uk2mtmp.png

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 12z shows an increasingly hot anticyclonic weekend and early next week, hottest further south. The mean then suggests temperatures dropping back towards the low 20's c for a short time as winds briefly come in from the n / ne as the orientation of the uk high changes and then warming up again later next week but some of the perturbations maintain very warm weather across southern uk all next week, even if it does cool down a bit, briefly, next week is still dominated by high pressure / strong ridging. During week 2 heights seep away to the southwest with slightly lower heights for the uk and a more changeable look to our weather with a more normal nw / se split meaning the s / se although cooler and fresher than we've become used to, temperatures would still comfortably rise into the low 20's c / closer to mid 20's at times for the SE but progressively cooler and more unsettled further northwest.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Finally the UK charts from the Arpege are coming out, just as hot as the ones I posted 24 hours ago.

arpegeuk-41-27-0.png?05-18   arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?05-18   arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?05-19

Probably 30/31C in favoured spots tomorrow but low thirties possible across a good chunk of central/southern England over the weekend so another hot weekend. Very warm on Saturday elsewhere away from western Scotland whilst on Sunday we see that front begin to edge into the north of the UK.

is that really 46'c in France/Belgium??

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Unsure about some of the more negative comments on the 12s so far.  If we take the reliable as up to T144, say, then all the models are OK.  GFS goes off towards the end, but the low res part of the run is as unreliable as it is in winter.  GEM looks good as @Frosty. has posted.  ICON also looks decent to the end:

image.thumb.jpg.0f9ec298461779348fec3e04cf80f374.jpg

ECM looks still settled, T144, but may retract the ridge thereafter.

image.thumb.jpg.8e14c74e5f81a9782557e5d56945a32a.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e27093e5456f0110a778a0e00211b810.jpg

The one thing that does seem consistent is slightly lower uppers, meaning slightly less hot days, but remaining settled in the reliable.  I wonder if the longer term trend is a mid month wobble followed by reload?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
30 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

is that really 46'c in France/Belgium??

No, it isn't, it is part of the temperature scale at the bottom of the chart.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As Mike said, the Ecm 12z looks settled out to next midweek but starts to go downhill thereafter, especially further NW..however, most of the uk desperately needs rain and if this run verifies, most of us will get some..later!☔☔ 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

RIP summer according to ECM. Enjoy this weekend. Its downhill from then. Cant complain, its been a great spell of weather after all

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

RIP summer according to ECM.

That's a bit OTT..the models have been signalling a change around mid July for a while now ( the GEFS mean has anyway) but it could just be a blip and there's plenty of summer left!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Still very knife edge - the 12z veers slightly more on the unsettled side, where as the 00z edged towards settled. It’s literaly that fine a line as to whether the amazing summer rolls on into mid July, or we see a gradual move to something more average. The ECM ensembles were good this morning, let’s see how the 12z ones pan out.

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