Model output discussion 14/04/18

[terrier]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Speak for yourself, i'm loving this spell, hope the models keep prolonging it!

Can’t see it been prolonged if we look at the ecm clusters from earlier today. By day 10 we see a weakening of the ridge. By day 13 everything is flattened out. And by day 15 we have 100% of ensembles going unsettled. Yes some want this to go on for longer. But we can’t ignore the models firming up on an unsettled mid month. And to be honest for farmers and moors fires etc some rain would be most welcome. 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, terrier said:

Thankfully tonight on the gfs12z we start to see the hot weather moving away at T276. And at last some much needed rainfall amounts. Which is good news especially for the moors fires etc. But until then we have at least another 10 days of heat and hot weather. Enjoy it while it last. Because it looks like the output is starting to firm up on a mid month break down to much more unsettled. 

It's far from firming up on anything. Don't forget this 'breakdown' is at day 9-10 and isn't fully supported by the ensembles. It may well be that we see a fall in pressure mid-month but as others have stated this may get pushed back or be a weak affair with a high rebuild thereafter.

I accept we may turn unsettled for a time later this month (unsurprising given the school holidays start then!) but confidence is still low IMO

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

The plume is 10 days away in the far far reaches of FI. My guess is that it will be watered & eroded down into nothing as per usual when we see plumes appear as far as the 10 day range.

In the meantime we have high pressure and very warm / hot surface conditions..could be worse!

[mb018538]

 

Just to show the long range clusters aren’t completely infallible...look at this one for Thursday from the 25th June. Completely wrong. The unsettled ones today may be just as wrong.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is an absolute scorcher from later this week onwards, widely low 30's celsius so beating 90F would be easy!..stunning heatwave run...phew.

Edited July 3, 2018 by Frosty.

[cheese]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z is an absolute scorcher from later this week onwards, widely low 30's celsius so beating 90F would be easy!..stunning heatwave run...phew.

 

GEM shows 30C or more on 4 days in a row here. Last time that happened was July 29-1 August 1995. Would be an impressive achievement. 

Edited July 3, 2018 by cheese

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GEM must be onto a SE'ly to have temps like 32c for Manchester.

[Mike Poole]

ECM great T168 (adverts on ITV!!):

not bad at T216:

Finally T240:

Then it all goes Pete Tong, but that's a long way away, and I'm much more concerned about the football with it 0-0 at half time!

[mb018538]

ECM is a bit wishy washy tonight, if we’re going to get a breakdown then let’s do it properly like the GEM suggests!

[mother nature rocks]

Just now, mother nature rocks said:

Booooooom to the weather!!!!!!!

Boooooooooom to ENGLAND!!!!!

Heatwave continues and ECM looking like less of a breakdown already!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Heatwave continues and ECM looking like less of a breakdown already!!!!

Yes, no breakdown upto 240 on EC, by 240 Friday 13th, looks to me hot, with chance of thunderstorms

Edited July 3, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Frosty.]

Nice Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight..high pressure building in and more very warm and indeed hot surface conditions dominating!

[Mike Poole]

England win the penalty shoot out!!! 

The ICON is running at T45

 

[ancientsolar]

We're sorry but your request for a breakdown has been delayed by another week, polar vortex apologizes for this delay and may deliver something during the 4th week. Please stay tuned for further announcements 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

chart for our match v Sweden, hot and sunny

[mother nature rocks]

England winning a penalty shootout..... that must mean one thing.... the heatwave continues!!! Get in England!!! ECM looks pretty good tonight including the mean!!!

[damianslaw]

I said I wouldn't look at the models all week - alas failed.. but I've just been looking at jetstream profile forecasts only today, and well longer range (yes 10 days out), they show a resurgent jet eventually possibly ushering in a more atlantic feed, the precursor or trigger so to speak is the signal for a cut off low to our SW scrubbing out the azores high, this would allow a plume of southerly air ahead of it next week - with some very high temps with it, before a thundery breakdown, the jet then sinking south and we end up for the first time since early April on the colder side; cyclonic springs to mind, which would bring a major pattern change.

I'll be keeping an eye on the jetstream profile forecasts over the days ahead.

[Man With Beard]

ECM op run temperatures for next week considerably lower than previous runs - generally mid to high 20s (had been low 30s). I guess the depth of heat is far from sorted yet. 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM op run temperatures for next week considerably lower than previous runs - generally mid to high 20s (had been low 30s). I guess the depth of heat is far from sorted yet. 

Euro has a cleaner end compared to the GFS18z or last nights low stuck west of the UK so instead of the high edging ever east we kid of just go from this to perhaps a day that gets quite warm and humid and then the low arrives. 

[mb018538]

Morning all, let's look at some 00z charts.

UKMO at 144 hours is disappointing, dragging a blob of cooler air down the east by day 6.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2018070400/UW144-21.GIF?04-07 

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2018070400/UW144-7.GIF?04-07

GFS looking much better at the same time, very warm/hot for many:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018070400/gfs-0-144.png?0 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018070400/gfs-1-144.png?0

It then goes bonkers and brings the 20c isotherm over the UK for a day, touching 22c in the SE - maxima shown as 33c, but surely under done there:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018070400/gfs-0-210.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018070400/gfs-1-210.png?0

 

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by mb018538

[shaky]

Much much better ecm so far and way better than ukmo up to 120 hours!!that shortwave which cuts through the north sea on the ukmo goes direct east into norway instead on the ecm and most of the uk continues in the scorching heat!!its even better than the 12z of yesterday!!

[Derecho]

We still believe, we still believe…

We still believe, we still believe…

It's coming home, it's coming home

It's coming, summers coming home

It's coming home, it's coming home

It's coming, summers coming home

 

Tears for netweather

Skies are grey

No plans to go out today

Barbecue summer drifting away…

There could have been storms

Lightning that couldn’t be beat

Waiting was nearly complete

GFS FI was so sweet

And now I’m singing…

Three models as they were

ECM still gleaming

No more years of hurt

No more need for dreaming

 

Talk about Summer coming home

And then we all thought it won’t

But high pressure was strong

It had grown

And now I see

UKMO’s showing more

GFS is good as before

NAVGEMs certain to score

And Summer suns screaming

  

 

Three models as they were...

ECM still gleaming

No more years of hurt

No more need for dreaming

 

This is our chance

A better summer then France

 

It's coming home, it's coming home

It's coming, summers coming home

It's coming home, it's coming home

It's coming, summers coming home

It's coming home, it's coming home

It's coming, summers coming home

Edited July 4, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Summer Sun]

Bar a few isolated showers over the next few days another lengthy dry spell develops until at least later next week

[mb018538]

ECM not looking too bad next week - the big high pressure gradually loses some influence, but a ridge still covering the UK at day 10...so staying mainly dry and warm for now.



The ECM clusters actually improved a tad last night, the 240 hour scenario has 100% supporting the ridge outcome.




Also, the horrible unsettled clusters had vanished by day 15:



Looks like plenty to try and sort out. The GFS ensembles are going cooler and more unsettled after mid-month:


 

[Man With Beard]

Thanks @mb018538

ECM individual ensembles this morning carrying on the same theme as last night's - a definite upturn in the 14th-16th July period with far more members staying settled. Will see if the next clusters show this a bit later this morning.