Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 14/04/18


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
1 hour ago, terrier said:

Well the gfs turns on the blow torch conditions next week. But then thankfully around the weekend of the 14th/15th of July we could see some much needed rainfall. We really could do with some rain now. Especially for the farmers etc. 

Sods law if it happens then when I'm off for my birthday the 15th is the famous St Swithuns Day 40 days and nights rainfall-  which if it did happen would mean game set and match for the dry weather as last year proved the only time I've ever seen rain on 15th July here in Kent!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure what those guys have been smoking - that's certainly not the case at all...

Our trusty ECM clusters are back!

Strong ridge at 144 hours, with a few quibbles about it's position:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_144.

Still strong at day 8:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_192.

Signs of slight weakening at day 10 emerging, though still ridge dominated:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_240.

By day 13 we are seeing everything flattened out:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_312.

By day 15, 100% of ensemble members going unsettled:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_360.

So....we're looking good until the middle of the month, then things could start to go downhill afterwards. Certainly not set in stone yet, but the ECM ensembles have shown high pressure losing influence around mid month for a couple of days now.

Would not be surprises if things unflatten out and high pressure contniues for even longer!!been happening frequently recently!!gfs 06z is juust gorgeous out to t222 hours so far!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure what those guys have been smoking - that's certainly not the case at all...

Our trusty ECM clusters are back!

Strong ridge at 144 hours, with a few quibbles about it's position:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_144.

Still strong at day 8:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_192.

Signs of slight weakening at day 10 emerging, though still ridge dominated:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_240.

By day 13 we are seeing everything flattened out:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_312.

By day 15, 100% of ensemble members going unsettled:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070300_360.

So....we're looking good until the middle of the month, then things could start to go downhill afterwards. Certainly not set in stone yet, but the ECM ensembles have shown high pressure losing influence around mid month for a couple of days now.

Great news about the clusters!

I totally agree with you - this idea that high pressure will somehow stay over the UK for the rest of the summer has no basis in the ensembles. As you say, we're pretty safe until 12/13th July. After that, it's a bit of a lottery. I think the behaviour of this next Biscay/Iberian low is going to cause headaches, like it did for a while last week.

Someone on the short range thread asked for a forecast for the weekend 14/15th July - I'm really sorry but I think this is going to be one of those occasions where a forecast will not be possible until within T144, or maybe even T120.

Can I just add last night's clusters for D15

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070212_360.

Clusters 1 and 2 going for something flat by 17th July (37 out of 51 ensembles, so a fair number). Having followed the ensembles on weather.us, this seems consistent with the modelling of the past 48 hours. However the anomalies are small, and certainly the southern half of the UK may stay under influence of a ridge to the south. So I don't think anything D11-D15 can be called yet. Not unusual of course - I think we've been a little spoilt recently by high levels of certainty at long distance - it's not often the way for the UK :)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I certainly agree - there's every chance to say it stays settled for even longer. I think it's just a bit premature to start saying all of July is going to carry on in the same vein, especially when the best performing model is starting to have a wobble. It will all depend on how the Iberian/Biscay trough plays out into next weekend and beyond.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

The 06Z Parallel is also pushing the idea of a breakdown from the NW from mid month

gfs-0-252.png?6

Parallel FI not one for the sun-worshippers, almost autumnal with LP in charge.

The 06Z OP tries to build heights to the far north which pushes the jet back south and pulls the Azores HP back SW.

Well, maybe, but I'm not convinced and it's all FI for now but certainly perhaps a sign the light at the end of the tunnel is the Breakdown Express.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Very nice Ecm 00z ensemble mean, plenty to look forward to in the next 10 days with high pressure building in strongly and staying very warm / hot..if anything, becoming even hotter during the weekend and next week with high 20's to low 30's celsius across southern uk.

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
29 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all :)

The 06Z Parallel is also pushing the idea of a breakdown from the NW from mid month

gfs-0-252.png?6

Parallel FI not one for the sun-worshippers, almost autumnal with LP in charge.

The 06Z OP tries to build heights to the far north which pushes the jet back south and pulls the Azores HP back SW.

Well, maybe, but I'm not convinced and it's all FI for now but certainly perhaps a sign the light at the end of the tunnel is the Breakdown Express.

Seems as though a few models are now thinking along the lines of a breakdown mid month. Let’s hope there onto something. The ground is absolutely parched round here. Certainly some rainfall would be most welcome by many. And it does seem like the gfs06z parallel isn’t alone in ushering in some cooler and wetter weather. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Unpleasant looking 6z parallel. Praying that’s doesn’t verify. I think we will see a temporary breakdown but not on the scale of that run. We certainly don’t want it just as the schools break up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Looks to me that as Tamara put across yesterday, the models haven't yet caught on (well, not fully, at least) with respect to the changing tropical forcing. Some near-term tweaks yes, but a lot of progress to be made with the longer-term.

This will affect entire ensemble suites.

Edited by Singularity
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Looks to me that as Tamara put across yesterday, the models haven't yet caught on (well, not fully, at least) with respect to the changing tropical forcing. Some near-term tweaks yes, but a lot of progress to be made with the longer-term.

This will affect entire ensemble suites.

I certainly think we could have some short-term pain for some longer-term gain if the longer-term signals are correct and the pattern shifts to HP developing to the east rather than the SW or NW.

As the Azores HP slackens and LP moves in, a longer or shorter spell of more unsettled conditions looks feasible before the new pattern establishes but that might mean LP sitting over the British Isles with the attendant poor conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, stodge said:

I certainly think we could have some short-term pain for some longer-term gain if the longer-term signals are correct and the pattern shifts to HP developing to the east rather than the SW or NW.

As the Azores HP slackens and LP moves in, a longer or shorter spell of more unsettled conditions looks feasible before the new pattern establishes but that might mean LP sitting over the British Isles with the attendant poor conditions.

That would suit me, Stodge: lightish winds and slow-moving thundery downpours?⛈️

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
21 hours ago, Tamara said:

Massive energy flows, such as the processes that lead to the SSW in late winter, have long lasting repercussions in the way they imprint themselves on the weather patterns for many months ahead. Its the nature of NWP to be too progressive and try to eliminate these feedbacks

What we have seen this Spring and Summer so far is an excellent example of rossby wave energy dispersal via repeated active tropical momentum processes (f.e repeated again in April and increasingly looking to re-occur again later this month) firmly linking and re-cycling global to regional circulation anomalies.

Related to our own Atlantic/European region, this means we have seen a quasi 'semi-permanent' atmospheric state created by huge poleward +AAM anomaly sequences, and then actually locked in by the decelerating momentum of reverse -ve AAM phases - effectively fixing the pre-dominant longwave pattern in situ. A repeating highly amplified mutli wave global pattern has seen us, for once, in the warm air sequences of this merdional pattern.

In a way, its the same principle as winter 62/63 where -ve AAM phases locked in the cold pattern created by massive +ve AAM momentum processes into the stratosphere in the autumn and in the Pacific look set to augment an ocean kelvin wave with an atmospheric MJO related kelvin wave sequence through July (in addition to micro scale cyclonic typhoon activity) which suggests a correction ahead to AAM and consequences for what happens to the existing pattern.

 

Yes - I really like this bit. I am lining up some reading over the summer once I get a break from work to be stronger in my grasp of these macroscale events. Interesting to see the 365 day progression of GLAAM

MR-latest-365days.png

The very obvious oceanic Nina imprint on the atmosphere is clear throughout, with GLAAM sitting mostly below 0 and often tipping towards -2SD. Note the small peak in November that gave us early winter ridging, a bigger peak in December that got a few of us excited (including me) but was then countered by the very steep drop off after Xmas - and then note the massive spike from -2SD up towards +2SD in the space of a couple of weeks in early Feb that gave a total increase of 4SD, smashing the vortex to shreds and giving us that memorable March.

Note we now sit in a very low period of GLAAM when looked at across a full year. I guess the question is - are we about to see another major spike that will serve to disrupt the base Nina state? With the ITCZ sitting further north in summer than it is in winter currently we have a very benevolent low AAM pattern promoting the azores ridge as sub tropical high pressure belts are dominant. If westerly momentum is inserted at the tropics via the next developing wave, then we can expect a more meridional pattern to emerge and our current ridge to push further north.

As ever the big question, should this occur, will be: will the expanding ridge trough pattern place the uk on the warm dry side, or the cooler/wetter side? Will be interesting to watch things unfold.

Of far greater interest to me though is the potential end of a long phase of Nina. With the pacific definitely warming up the end of Nina is nigh. The timing of this will again be very interesting to watch, and for those with an interest in the autumn/winter this is a very important development too.

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ukmo 12z looks fandabidozi..now there's a word i haven't used in here before:D..high pressure and very warm / hot surface conditions all the way.

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

No comments about the Gfs 12z?..well it's looking great so far if you high pressure and high temperatures.

12_99_mslp500.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_mslp500.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_147_mslp500.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_mslp500.png

12_195_mslp500.png

12_195_ukthickness850.png

12_219_mslp500.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_ukthickness850.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z runs looking nice in the short term, but both gfs and gem start to turn unsettled by day 10 - as said earlier, this is the first time in quite a while we’ve seen anything unsettled appearing at 240 and under, so it could mean that we finally see an end to the settled spell by mid month. In the mean time, enjoy the lovely weather!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ukmo 12z looks fandabidozi..now there's a word i haven't used in here before:D..high pressure and very warm / hot surface conditions all the way.

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Haven't heard that word since primary school, OK actually haven't heard it even now, but still.  My pick of the early 12s is the GEM, here T144, huge ridge, and then at T240 this run packs some real heat in as that low west of France gets a little close:

image.thumb.jpg.2300373f8faaba11e8c25c8f739db569.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1ba0af29200a627ae8c961d8b595ff5a.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.15ed05f9344bd4d8d4917fe07e77ebd8.jpg

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Thankfully tonight on the gfs12z we start to see the hot weather moving away at T276. And at last some much needed rainfall amounts. Which is good news especially for the moors fires etc. But until then we have at least another 10 days of heat and hot weather. Enjoy it while it last. Because it looks like the output is starting to firm up on a mid month break down to much more unsettled. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, terrier said:

Thankfully tonight on the gfs12z we start to see the hot weather moving away at T276. And at last some much needed rainfall amounts. Which is good news especially for the moors fires etc. But until then we have at least another 10 days of heat and hot weather. Enjoy it while it last. Because it looks like the output is starting to firm up on a mid month break down to much more unsettled. 

Far too early to tell. When those charts are at 144 then I think you can start to talk about a potential breakdown. At the moment the breakdown is deep into FI.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z runs looking nice in the short term, but both gfs and gem start to turn unsettled by day 10 - as said earlier, this is the first time in quite a while we’ve seen anything unsettled appearing at 240 and under, so it could mean that we finally see an end to the settled spell by mid month. In the mean time, enjoy the lovely weather!

Was there not a breakdown showing for this week/next week which eventually diminished into nothing? Or have I just imagined that in hopefulness of no breakdown occuring until September

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

It’s out of the reliable at days 9 and 10 and likely to change. It could happen but it may not. We may also get some even hotter weather around that time. Let’s see what the ECM goes with. The met long range is talking of well above average temperatures for July now. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

You watch the breakdown get pushed back day by day though until there is none ! 

I agree with this.  The background signals suggest increasing AAM and the long range models suggesting higher probability of significantly higher than average temperatures should not be ignored.  Those probabilities were stated before this heatwave got initiated.  The fact that it is now real and now, only pushes the balance of probability higher for the foreseeable future.  I think the west of France low will probably get close enough to cause some thunderstorms, but that the heatwave will go on unabated thereafter.  We'll see.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

The plume is 10 days away in the far far reaches of FI. My guess is that it will be watered & eroded down into nothing as per usual when we see plumes appear as far as the 10 day range.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...