Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Singularity]

We are truly lucky to have the likes of you posting such detailed analysis and insight on a public forum @Tamara.

Over the years I’ve slowly but surely brought my brain into line on much of what you cover - but the way you put it all together still blows me away quite often!

 

I’m watching the ECM 12z for adjustments east from the 00z (not asking much actually!).

As expected, Iberian trough not receiving much if anything from the Atlantic during the weekend; another vote against the GFS solution - that sort of thing being more likely in the second half of the month.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Singularity

[mb018538]

Good to see ECM sticking to its guns - turning increasingly warm through the weekend and into Monday. 30c+ once more, much better than the ukmo 

[Mike Poole]

Awesome ECM so far at T192, massive high pressure over the UK  and the heat poised and building to the south!

[Summer Sun]

If you think it's bad for heat here just look at these 850's for Spain and Portugal!!!

[mb018538]

Looks like going mega toasty in Iberia - parts of Spain and Portugal have 850s nearing 30c - you’d expect the usual hotspots like Seville/Córdoba to be going north of 40c into next week!

[Frosty.]

Wow what an Ecm 12z we have here, if you think it's hot now, it shows even hotter weather on the way, especially during the weekend and through next week with a beautiful anticyclone building over the uk..peachy charts! ...signs of a plume later too..stunning charts, the high is more solid than the 00z when it was pushed around but this run its nailed it!

 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's bad for heat here just look at these 850's for Spain and Portugal!!!

Yes but Summer Sun, watch where these 850s are going between T168 and T216... holy cow, if that Biscay low gets in the right position... we're going to run out of colors for heat over France and the southern half of the UK shortly after 

Doesn't quite manage it on this run (still very hot for the UK), but it really could. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Mike Poole]

ECM just insane at the end of the run.  Here T216 and T240:

 

That heat to the south, would like to see the next frames!

[Daniel*]

Really dangerous heat that mid 40s in Iberia interior perhaps record breaking there, interesting how both GFS and ECM are interested in a ‘plume’, will it make it? Think very hot route, greater chance of a breakdown following so be careful for what you wish for. A fascinating year this is turning out, wonder what autumn and winter could possibly do?

Edited July 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Mike Poole]

The ECM build up of heat from the south tonight is given some support from the GFS parallel, aka FV3:

Take some direct hit to verify!!

[Summer Sun]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes but Summer Sun, watch where these 850s are going between T168 and T216... holy cow, if that Biscay low gets in the right position... we're going to run out of colors for heat over France and the southern half of the UK shortly after 

Doesn't quite manage it on this run (still very hot for the UK), but it really could. 

Thos 850's over Spain and Portugal for next week are even higher than back in 2003

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean solid at T192:

And here at T240, and just a suggestion that this heat build from the south idea may be gaining in strength, maybe?

Edited July 2, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Perfick Ecm 12z ensemble mean again tonight for most of the uk, high pressure / strong azores ridging and further very warm / hot surface conditions, especially further south, indeed high pressure will strengthen its grip during the coming weekend and well into next week, perhaps only the far north of scotland seeing some occasional weak atlantic influence brushing around the top of the high. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[MattTarrant]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's bad for heat here just look at these 850's for Spain and Portugal!!!

Just for reference, raw operational data showcases temperature peaking at 45C! Impressive (understatement) given tendency to under play temperatures by 1 - 3C, temperature record of 47.3 would surely be under notable threat if those synoptics were actually transferred to 0h. 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

if   f1  right we  might get some rain!!

[Northwest NI]

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

[Mike Poole]

12z FIM9 doing it's level best to push a red tongue of fearsome heat into the UK at T240:

Now I'm starting to think that this potential scenario needs watching!  Pressure chart at same time, all about how the low west of France engages...

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

Weather enthusiasts like all sorts of extreme and unusual set ups. Mid 20s are nothing special although I suppose weeks of them would be.

The plume will lead to a breakdown but it may be temporary. July 2003 had a couple of plumes then look what happened in August.

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

Very good post, completely agree, a plume, although potentially very exciting normally heralds a return of the atlantic, I really don't want to see the atlantic return this summer, ideally we could alternate between unstable continental thundery interludes to ease the growing water shortages  and continue with more settled azores high / ridge periods with warm / very warm / hot sometimes humid conditions.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

I'm not sure anyone here is willing a plume on?  This home grown heat under our anticyclone is lovely.  But this is the model output discussion thread and the plume option is starting to show up on the models so surely it's OK that that scenario is discussed?  I still think it's unlikely, but less unlikely than I thought it yesterday if that makes sense.

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

Very true - sadly the Synoptics needed to deliver exceptional heat in the UK often result in a breakdown very soon afterwards. Pressure patterns like we are seeing now will deliver slightly lower temperatures, but last much longer with a big area of high pressure.

the ecm mean is again trying to pull everything west by day 10, so I’d say there is a small risk of a breakdown from mid month onwards at the moment - one to keep watching over, as this could change greatly in the coming days as the cut off low gets modelled and resolved better.

[terrier]

26 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

if   f1  right we  might get some rain!!

Here is hoping the farmers round here are desperate for some rainfall. And also the for the fires around saddleworth. Looking at those charts does seem that around the 13th we could see a change to some welcome rainfall. Here is hoping. 

[Man With Beard]

Plenty of examples in history of plumes followed by settled weather. 2006 - mid July, 36C from a massive plume - there were shortly after 10 consecutive days at 30+ in the SE. 

In fact the south coast is under the tail end of a plume right now. 

But what will be will be!! 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Man With Beard

[jam]

29 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Are the people willing a plume on, really thinking it through? The price for your record breaking temperature day will be the end of the settled weather. Why can’t people be content with mid twenties and just enjoy them? There are about 4 summers in my lifetime that I’d say we’re perfect 1976,1983,1995,2003 and I’d like to add 2018. A plume now could possibly leave us with six weeks of the Atlantic and all this sunshine will fade in the memory.

It matters not who will what .... it’ll happen regardless one way or another ... as yet the forum doesn’t control the weather 

[Northwest NI]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Plenty of examples in history of plumes followed by settled weather. 2006 - mid July, 36C from a massive plume - there were shortly after 10 consecutive days at 30+ in the SE. 

In fact the south coast is under the tail end of a plume right now. 

But what will be will be!! 

In your location that is possible. It’s always “the end” for us