Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Guest Delete Me]

WEE.NL have this for next weekend

[Leo97t]

Not gonna lie that i would much prefer a unstable southerly producing insane temps to a prolonged anticyclone

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

WEE.NL have this for next weekend

Load of old rubbish - no date stamp, doesn't correlate with any model output, and why it has a photoshopped 48c put on there I'll never know. The all-time European record of 48c is in Greece, and won't be reached in France.

[SMU]

^^ Thats is a correct image from this weekend - however its 'apparent' temperature as the humidity rises - its not actual temps

best

S

Edited June 30, 2018 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

Annoying  to have lost the eps clusters for the past three runs ..........

[Mike Poole]

What has the GFS parallel been on?  This is some anticyclone at this time of year, it looks like a big red flat fish sat over the UK!  T240:

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

What has the GFS parallel been on?  This is some anticyclone at this time of year, it looks like a big red flat fish sat over the UK!  T240:

 

In other words - HP is firmly in plaice? I'll get my coat!

[MattStoke]

GFS maximum temperatures for this afternoon. Gives a high of 21'C in Stoke. It's 24'C already....

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS maximum temperatures for this afternoon. Gives a high of 21'C in Stoke. It's 24'C already....

Looks like its gona be 5 or 6 degrees out lol!!!madness!!its already nearly 26 in leicester!arpege has been the most accurate for around here so far so tomorrows forecast from the arpege for temps of 30 31 degrees might not be far of

[CheesepuffScott]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS maximum temperatures for this afternoon. Gives a high of 21'C in Stoke. It's 24'C already....

Same here, shows 26 max but it’s only 1pm and it’s already 25C and rising!

[cheese]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS maximum temperatures for this afternoon. Gives a high of 21'C in Stoke. It's 24'C already....

GFS max temps are a joke, it's 25C here too. I swear that GFS max temps never used to be this inaccurate. 

Edited June 30, 2018 by cheese

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think GFS forecasts the shade temps and not the max temps when actually in the sun. so if in shade its 21c it could be 24c in the sun. Might be wrong as I don't really know.

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I think GFS forecasts the shade temps and not the max temps when actually in the sun. so if in shade its 21c it could be 24c in the sun. Might be wrong as I don't really know.

All temperatures are recorded in the shade so that shouldn't make a difference. I've seen thermometers in the sun showing temperatures over 40C!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I think GFS forecasts the shade temps and not the max temps when actually in the sun. so if in shade its 21c it could be 24c in the sun. Might be wrong as I don't really know.

more than that I would think, 21C in shade surely would be late 30's in sun?

[Sweatyman]

33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS maximum temperatures for this afternoon. Gives a high of 21'C in Stoke. It's 24'C already....

Hopeless mate!!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Annoying  to have lost the eps clusters for the past three runs ..........

Yes done this a couple of times recently! 

Looking through individual ECM ensembles, the overwhelming majority keep the high pressure in charge well into the D11-15 period, with temperatures not too different to what we're seeing now. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

more than that I would think, 21C in shade surely would be late 30's in sun?

Sun temperature currently 500yrds from Bmth airport where I’m golfing is 52c. In the shade my kestrel is recording 27.2c almost the same as the station a few hundred yards away.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean in the short / medium / longer term..one word sums it up..BEAUTIFUL..right out towards the middle of july, more of the same glorious weather as we have now, hottest further south.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

more than that I would think, 21C in shade surely would be late 30's in sun?

Sun temperature currently 500yrds from Bmth airport where I’m golfing is 52c. In the shade my kestrel is recording 27.2c almost the same as the station a few hundred yards away.

[The PIT]

31 minutes ago, cheese said:

All temperatures are recorded in the shade so that shouldn't make a difference. I've seen thermometers in the sun showing temperatures over 40C!

Which is more likely.

On the subject of GFS temperatures they do seem to be under doing the temperatures at the moment. However still doing better than the met office for our area which is about 2C to 4C out and corrected upwards as the day goes on.

[MattStoke]

You can't measure temperature in direct sunlight. The thermometer itself will heat up and store solar radiation, so it will give a false reading.

Anyway, the models, particularly the GFS, have been way too low on temperatures all week. Therefore, automated forecasts have also been too. I don't know why they are often too low in such setups but it shows that the GFS temperature output for next week is probably too low as well.

[Mike Poole]

Sea surface temperatures.

The Met Office contingency planners forecasts from May and June cited cool temperatures in west northern Atlantic and warm temperatures in vicinity of the UK as a reason for higher likelihood of high pressure for UK, and followed the GloSea5 model predictions of higher probability of above average temperatures.  

Here's the current situation, temperatures and anomalies:

The Azores ridge is clearly enhancing the sea surface temperatures, but are the sea surface temperatures also enhancing the longevity of the ridge i.e. a positive feedback system? It's worth remembering how unusually cold the North Sea temperatures were back in March.  Not any more.

Meanwhile, the GFS parallel 6z isn't letting go, here at T240:

Edited June 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

Fantastic output again today 

Indeed, and I think we will see many more charts like this in the coming hours, days and weeks..summer 2018 is currently firing on all cylinders..long may it continue!

[cobby]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Sea surface temperatures.

The Met Office contingency planners forecasts from May and June cited cool temperatures in west northern Atlantic and warm temperatures in vicinity of the UK as a reason for higher likelihood of high pressure for UK, and followed the GloSea5 model predictions of higher probability of above average temperatures.  

Here's the current situation, temperatures and anomalies:

The Azores ridge is clearly enhancing the sea surface temperatures, but are the sea surface temperatures also enhancing the longevity of the ridge i.e. a positive feedback system? It's worth remembering how unusually cold the North Sea temperatures were back in March.  Not any more.

Meanwhile, the GFS parallel 6z isn't letting go, here at T240:

The other day the sea temp in Penzance was 17.2c compared to June max previously of 16.5c although its dropped back to 16.7c today

[Frosty.]

It's really a perfect outlook next week as the ukmo 12z shows, which is representative of the 12z output so far and indicates generally settled very warm / hot weather with plenty of sunshine right across the uk.