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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Absolutely fantastic ecm this evening from start to finish!!high twenties from start to finish!!and high pressure pretty much slap bang over the top!!

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, for the vast majority these are dream charts in a wonderful prolonged summery spell pretty much nationwide..it may be hell for a few but it's heaven for most..long may it continue..if the Ecm 12z day 10 chart is anywhere close..expect most of July to be fantastic!:D

Unbelievable for everyone except the south. The setup will limit any southerly flow to get some really extreme temps going. Nevertheless this July is still in the running for the warmest of all time

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hmm I might be going against the grain here but there is a fly in the ointment at a very short timescale developing. We still have no agreement on how the approaching Atlantic trough behaves over the weekend and where any potential cut off low goes (if this forms at all). The GEM shows it stalling close to the UK bringing showers and slightly cooler conditions for next week and frankly given the uncertainty over this you couldn't discount a cold pool landing over the UK. On the other hand the trough could still clear eastwards cleanly or even sink west of the UK and feed into the low south west of the UK which could push hot air further north next week.

I am not making any call here, the broad trend is clear but it doesn't take into account the possibility of disturbances which could take away the generally warm and sunny outlook.

You know CS, I had exactly the same thought as you. Next week undoubtedly is very warm, and Atlantic free, but I had a look at the cloud coverage and it's very mixed even further north. The ECM yet again has produced charts threatening the 30C mark every day, but I can't see that happening if a day is mostly cloudy. There's clearly an old front headed north on Tuesday /Wednesday (almost no rain on it but sometimes they spring back into life unexpectedly). And the accumulated precipitation charts keep rising for southern counties. Reminds me of the end of May a little. It may well end up being another heatwave week for most, but jury's still out for me tonight. 

Beyond next Friday though - beach weather all the way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Only slight nag is that it’s an easterly again! Get rid of the easterly and we’re all good!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Only slight nag is that it’s an easterly again! Get rid of the easterly and we’re all good!

been better, seas must be a bit warmer, had sea mist every morning, but cleared by 9am

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You know CS, I had exactly the same thought as you. Next week undoubtedly is very warm, and Atlantic free, but I had a look at the cloud coverage and it's very mixed even further north. The ECM yet again has produced charts threatening the 30C mark every day, but I can't see that happening if a day is mostly cloudy. There's clearly an old front headed north on Tuesday /Wednesday (almost no rain on it but sometimes they spring back into life unexpectedly). And the accumulated precipitation charts keep rising for southern counties. Reminds me of the end of May a little. It may well end up being another heatwave week for most, but jury's still out for me tonight. 

Beyond next Friday though - beach weather all the way. 

What are the temps like monday to friday for england mate?!still looking at high 20s with todays 12z run?!looking at the charts the ecm looks amazing all the way!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Stunning Ecm 12z ensemble mean ?️

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been better, seas must be a bit warmer, had sea mist every morning, but cleared by 9am

Yeah, much better than early June. We didn't even have any sea murk this morning, sunny from the start. I expect it will arrive tonight again but hopefully clearing early.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You know CS, I had exactly the same thought as you. Next week undoubtedly is very warm, and Atlantic free, but I had a look at the cloud coverage and it's very mixed even further north. The ECM yet again has produced charts threatening the 30C mark every day, but I can't see that happening if a day is mostly cloudy. There's clearly an old front headed north on Tuesday /Wednesday (almost no rain on it but sometimes they spring back into life unexpectedly). And the accumulated precipitation charts keep rising for southern counties. Reminds me of the end of May a little. It may well end up being another heatwave week for most, but jury's still out for me tonight. 

Beyond next Friday though - beach weather all the way. 

I wouldn't discount any solution at the moment, for all we know that cold pool could be modelled to be somewhere completely different in the morning. It is more likely a complication which could simply allow showers to form whilst temperatures still respond okay (The north sea is proably the worst location given a a surface ENE flow so actually the low ending up over the UK wouldn't be a bad outcome and the rain would be welcome). 

Week 2 look ominous in the respect to the consistency of the ECM building a very strong ridge from the Azores across Europe, to think we could be potentially looking at an even stronger lid building over us to suppress any kind of convection along with increasing surface temperatures yet again. Classic heatwave set up developing after a good couple of weeks of generally dry and very warm to hot weather.

Ens look solid

EDM1-144.GIF?29-0   EDM1-192.GIF?29-0   EDM1-240.GIF?29-0

Very warm or hot, and after a brief spell where we might see a few showers the outlook looks like becoming bone dry again.

This Sunday continues to tease with the possibility of the south or south east robbing the 2018 temperature record with low thirties again forecast by the arpege widely.

arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?29-19

The 30C mark is also reached Monday and Tuesday, a slack pattern over the UK it is going to be difficult to predict specific surface conditions, also we could see areas of heat develop in situ which could differ from the rather broad brush 850 forecasts.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So to the ECM ensemble mean, and now it starts to get really interesting. 

image.thumb.jpg.a4f3b69f80ce8ecf3d4fab6e8018e759.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.76c3bf9bd67705e42b17b1755fd31722.jpg

If the mean is showing this massive high incoming toward 240 I think it will happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

What sort of setup would it take to break the all time monthly CET records? (July 2006 & Aug 95)

Night-time Temps in these months must have been pretty damn high to give the CET average of over 19c

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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Only slight nag is that it’s an easterly again! Get rid of the easterly and we’re all good!

The easterly is great for us on the south coast as the flow is generally strong enough to prevent sea breezes developing. Long may it continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So...in a nutshell, no end in sight to the heatwave, indeed it's going to become even hotter across the south and increasingly humid. There is a risk of some thunderstorms towards the southwest for a time this weekend but for the majority it's blue skies and hot sunshine...more of the same next week and if the Ecm is right, more hot, settled sunny weather for the following few weeks too!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, Alderc said:

The easterly is great for us on the south coast as the flow is generally strong enough to prevent sea breezes developing. Long may it continue.

Nah, southerlies are best. Easterlies can do one.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
14 minutes ago, shaky said:

What are the temps like monday to friday for england mate?!still looking at high 20s with todays 12z run?!looking at the charts the ecm looks amazing all the way!!

Yes still high 20s, if anything the temps are slightly higher than on previous runs. Seems reliant on large gaps between cloudy areas. Temperatures remain high until D10. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Was anyone expecting to see this on the 12z ECM ensemble mean, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.0b06fe430a449a0437faa3890187cfd3.jpg

☀️

And the FIM9 leaves us in a massive high. At t240;

image.thumb.jpg.c3efd1bf79b0d094965621c7110e1c5a.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM produces 15-30 mm of rain quite widely across southern England from very slow-moving heavy showers Thursday and Friday.

In reality they would be more hit-and-miss, especially on Friday as SLP rises into the 1020s. Very situational anyway; dependant on the position of a very weak area of LP against a broad and quite weak area of high pressure. A tricky few days to forecast for!

AAM-related signals strengthening ever further for next weekend onward (strong NE extension of Azores High). GFS lagging a bit perhaps and even ECM not moving the high east as much on the 12z as could be expected (but ensembles better in this respect).

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Although a big part of me does want this over, the weather fan in me views tonights output in amazement.

 

 

GFS and Euro in complete capitulation, pressure rises again to our north west and the high pressure spell goes on and on.

 

The good thing about the pressure build to the north west of course is that humidity should be low and nights cool since we avoid importing air from too far south.

 

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Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London

Aside from general heatwave chat, I'm quite intrigued by the handling of the wee Iberian/Biscay trough.

What a privilege it is to be able to question NWP handling of such a complex event this far out! Day 7+??!

Ensembles suggest huge divergence  regarding phasing/timing of that cheeky Biscay/Iberian trough. 

I'm a meteorological ignoramus but never tire of the content on here.

EDIT: forgot to ask my question! 

In this scenario would you wait for ensemble convergence or is there a better way? 

Edited by Jimmy0127
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

A quick look at the 00z runs....

UKMO great, high pressure building 

GEM somewhere inbetween

GFS awful! Can’t help but think it’s barking up the wrong tree here

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
27 minutes ago, draztik said:

In GFS, we trust. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png

Thankfully it appears the OP run was again pessimistic and not really in line with the ensembles.

Anyway, ECM is out and it's a belter. Here's the D7 charts:

ECM1-168.GIF?30-12

ECM0-168.GIF?30-12

The heat goes on...and on....and on...

Edited by mb018538
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